Why showing Govt published figures are suddenly 'congressi'?
Did I call you a 'congressi' tho?
Dude, My first vote was for ABV and he became PM of India that year. That's how old a BJP supporter I am. But I am also not blind. Will give credit when due.
None of my business, really.
Now sine you have used strong words like BS etc:
1. You mention that pre-2014 economic boom cannot be repeated. How and why?
Because the world has turned more protectionist? Because global growth has tanked? Because global trade is declining?
How many emerging nations are growing at 6%+ right now? How many of them were growing at 6% back then?
2. In the same breadth, you mentioned that Modiji did not inherit good economy. This directly contradicts your own statement that economy was booming before 2014.
An economy can experience 'mild boom' even with deep structural issues. Also, growth largeley plateaued in UPA 2, they did not have that kind of macro anymore.
What I meant was that UPA gormints had a favorable goobal econ/trade/investment outlook - the sheer inertia, coupled with the reforms undertaken by their predecessors (desipte the UPA gormint staging u-turns on a number of those reforms), alone could propel the economy on autopilot mode. Not the case anymore.
3. Do you have a counter point here on why GDP growth rate sank post 2016? Why was it still dipping before COVID hit us? Just to quote the exact number, Indian economy grew at 3.87% in 2019.
That 3.8% figure has been revisioned upward since.
Either way, I did mention the reason, no? The banking sector/bad debt meltdown? Also, the economy did okayish till 2017-18, the fallout became too severe after that only.
4. Exactly which reforms which reduced the growth rate by 2.5%? Do you know what 2.5% growth rate looks like on the base of a 2T economy?
Umm, what? When exactly was our growth rate reduced to '2.5%' (barring maybe the covid year)? Kuch bhi?
5. Happy to know that you think GST was a reform. Who opposed "reforms" in 2009? Can you give me names of 2 chief ministers who did this?
Lol, this is your counter? That the then opposition party opposed the policy of the then incumbent?
They should not have opposed it btw, braindead move.
6. Do you know Govt stopped publishing NSSO Jobs data in 2019? Do you also know that Govt also stopped its own Jobs surveys for 2016-17 to be published? If this was indeed a problem created by UPA2, Govt. should have published it and blamed on UPA2? Do you even know what this data is used for by researchers, economists and companies?
I do not get you. The PLFS data is public even now. Heck, they have even introduced better (and larger) samples and switched to calender year based quarterly updates since. What is the issue?
7. The robust economic growth post COVID was bouyed by excessive demand. That has tapered down now. So 2020 to 2023 was an aberration. Economy has come back to normal growth rate (~6.3%) now.
So what is contributing to this 6.3% growth rate(hint: look at the formula for GDP and see where the money is coming from)?
I am sorry, but this is copium again. 'Muh excess demands' cannot explain three years of sustained 7%+ real growth, the base effects are not there anymore.
FY 2024-25 'slowdown' is because of tight fiscpol + tight monpol. The subsequent easing up of monpol, the income tax mela and improvement in high frequency indicators (2w/4w sales, GST figures etc) indicate a broad based recovery since.
And even that 'slowdown' is a result of a high upward revision (revised to 9.2% from 8.2%) in FY 2023-24 figures - else, FY 2024-25 would still edge past 7%.
8. Also, exactly what reforms led to this "stellar" 6.3% growth? Let's take a focus area which is being talked about the most - Mfg. is lowest as a % of economy in 40-50 years. Big reason - industrialist are not doing Capex. Why? What do they know which you don't know?
Look, I refrain from commenting on the nitty gritty of defense tech cuz I do not understand mech/electronics/hardware but 50%+ of my posts are on economy on this forum. You will not get anywhere by hiding behind numbers.
The 'manufacturing as a % of the GDP' figure has declined because other sectors have surged faster; not because manufacturing has lost steam etc. In fact, our non petroleum merchandise exports are on steroids right now, literally! In April 2025, some sectors are even witnessing double digit growth. And all this at a time when global trade is undergoing serious stress test and projected to shrink.
So I ask you now, why do you care if services grow faster than manufacturing (and corner a larger % of the GDP) as long as manufacturing keeps growing at a very decent pace?
All data points.
Now if you tell me GDP is not a number and like Bhutan we should be looking at GNH, I am perfectly fine.
Cool snarky remark, mate. Too bad it does not work on me. As the resident armchair expert of DFB, I remain obsessed with macro, fisc and monpol.
