Operation Sindoor & Aftermath (30 Viewers)

GaudaNaresh said:
Stop spreading paki propaganda. There is no credible video anywhere whatsoever of a rafale or any twin engine jet downed. There is no video showing two engine nacells and There has never ever been a twin engine crash where both engine nacelles didn't fall side by side.
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HOw many people will you stop even indian famous youtube channels like alpha defence and matrix have reported rafale down.
Foreign media reported rafale down.
Nothing will be achieved by living in denial mode best will be to do a press briefing give all the details of pakistan air and ground asset losses for the whole world to see and shut their mouth.

A single rafale lost does not mean the war lost.
 

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bakofbakchod said:

>He said it would take a minimum of 6-to-10 years to just finish planning, that too when all stakeholders are on the same page. Besides, political commitment is crucial

these babus will ensure that the IWT gets re-instantiated. With him saying that, I fully expect no canal to ever be built
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Chenab one is the easiest to do, expanding Ranbir canal could be the first step and linking it to existing Upper Bari Doab Canal (and other Punjab canals). This would demonstrate to Pakistan that India is serious.
 
MasterChief said:
In a perverse way.. this humiliation of Bajipao.. is welcome..
This ensures that Modi doesn't tie the IAF's hands the next time by telling them to target only the Jihadis first.
Modi Should have learned the lesson after Operation Swift retort, that Pakistan will always hit the Indian military first. It has no qualms.. But, maybe he thought Rafale Spectra was too sexy and that it could lob limited range Hammer from close to the border and escape..
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. coming back to my post on wargaming , the scenario was war gamed by iaf not moodiji
.some were saying moodiji won't retaliate while all open source data pointed to "war" preparation
.then when moodiji retaliated he was accused of accepting ceasefire
.neither is moodiji incompetent nor is he superman
.what weapons and which aircraft will be used is not the job of moodiji to decide
.from previous 3 decades of institutional memory the IAF should have wargamed of the said 'political constraints' if any
.anyway iaf did a tremendous job of hitting back at pakis
.in kargil too they improvised after facing fire from stingers and it was partly iaf destruction of logistics nodes of NLA combined with our artillarly barrage and infantry assault that won the conflict
.even trump "the great" works under constraints
 
bakofbakchod said:

>He said it would take a minimum of 6-to-10 years to just finish planning, that too when all stakeholders are on the same page. Besides, political commitment is crucial

these babus will ensure that the IWT gets re-instantiated. With him saying that, I fully expect no canal to ever be built
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To play the devil's advocate, that is the kind of rigour when you deal with such things. The South Lhonak lake disaster from 2023 should tell you what happens when there isn't a thorough geographical survey of the area where a project of strategic importance gets constructed. A dam worth billions of dollars got wiped clean off in a matter of minutes. Lene ke dene pad gaye. I know that this specific part (river linking) shouldn't be that difficult but that isn't the only thing we intend to do, is it? There have been multiple open talks about the river itself being diverted by the means of canals down to Rajasthan and what not.

I will forgive them for taking their time as long as it results in -
1. A large scale diversion of the rivers to enhance agriculture, consumption and industrial needs.
2. Building high quality projects that can remain operational in the toughest of circumstances that affect the region without disrupting the livelihoods of too many people downstream which could allow Pakis to spread propaganda about how the whole ordeal is also bad for Indians.
 
ezsasa said:
that's the game, it's not a binary of 0 and 1, between 0 & 1, there is 0.1, 0.2 all the way to 1.

for both nations,finding space to execute respective tactical and strategic goals is the game.

if folks are interested, figuring out pakjabi's next move is worth investing time in.
being judgemental about something that has already happened is easy, figuring out what is going to happen next while staying within known terms of reference is the hard part.
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There are several pathways the pakis may proceed - asymetric vs symetric and combination of both - the third scenario is most likely, making it a complicated game theory answers - i am pretty sure that projecting India-Pakistan-China kinetic angles is the most geopolitically complex scenario on the planet and ironically none of the primary players are assured to have gamed this the best - which most likey USA has done.

Having said that, there are two major pathways for this:

A: an asymetric ignition- via terrorist attack somewhere, followed by kinetic action between two nations
B: symetric ignition, since asymetric ignition has failed ( for a host of reasons too banal to get into here).

In Scenario A, we are not RAW or anywhere close to CBI even so we can only speculate what, when and where the terror attack will be, though we know priority order in terms of High value targets for Pakis to gain 'awaami backing & junoon' for - such as blowing up Jammu region ( huge H&D win for striking at heart of indian military presence), blowing up Mumbai or Delhi or a tier1 city, blowing up strategic assets like Jamnagar refinery complex, etc.

Following this, the kinetic action can take several pathways but the likeliest one is 'pak denial of involvement + predicting Indian strike & then ambushing Indian strike with varying degrees of success'.

Pak is highly unlikely to go on the offensive right after a major terror attack, since that is definitely gonna burn bridges diplomatically, financially and strategically for Pak throughout the world - even if they dont lose backing of mummy and daddy ( USA and China), they will still suffer critical hits to their economies from tertiary nations expressing ire ( UAE primary on them, KSA not far behind to complicate matters for Pakis).

So therefore a 'set up an ambush' is most likely outcome, though Pak's ability to ambush is declining by the day, since Brahmos and trials for far better strike packages are serving as a decisive checkmate against pakis, given that they dont have strategic depth.

China will not get involved on behalf of Pakistan and double-team us, except for maybe engaging in Salami slicing - at least in the foreseeable future. This is because Chinese economy isnt in good shape and India is 2nd biggest 'paymaster' of the Chinese economy in the world - the trade surplus is ultimately how China earns hard cash and India is 2nd ranked in Chinese trade surplus in the world - well over 100 Bn a year. This gap, ironically, serves as a China-block for military action, since anything more than minor salami slicing will see this 100Bn/annum disappear from Chinese economy and therefore China would have to guarantee something massive in wins to lose that income on a yearly basis, compounding over decades.
however, if China feels that India can be sufficiently distracted by Pakistan war to take a major piece of India- such as Tawang of pretty much all of Depsang, China *will* strike and not look back.

This means, from Indian PoV, we are going to keep honing the surgical strike package + engage in our own asymetric warfare with the Pakis.

In this regard, i see variations of Operation Sindoor as the new norm : India strikes- with varying degree of success, Pakistan ambushes- with varying degree of success and as long as India holds decisive missile advantage, Pakis end up bleeding more, thus inititing our red lever to shut it down, lest we get over-extended and suffer another surprise attack and crushing defeat vs China.

This brings us, to what basically pakis can do, in terms of ambushing India. So far, people are forgetting one decisive aspect of the escalation ladder where we hold all the aces - navy. we are in position to blow up ormara at will and deal Pakistan military a casualty list exceeding 5000, while suffering zero- for PAk lacks naval assets and missile assets to hit one of our CBG who's going to operate from their range limits to blow up ormara- a major PN base.
Since Ormara doesnt have any international commercial traffic like Karachi, India doesnt need to declare war and get 3rd party freight traffic out of the way to blow up PN in Karachi.

This lever, which Pakis cannot hide like they can hide PAF losses ( its only ever going to be max 30-40 PAF personnel + dozens of support staff that will die in worst case scenarios for PAF in Sindoor mk 2.0++ ones, while if Ormara gets hit coz India got mad, the casualty list will surpass several thousand military personnel alone.

By India dominating this lever and PakMil not being absolute Palestinian like duffers, India will restrict the battlespace to Air battles and arty duels and keep Pakis in check.

Pak on the other hand, will be at a qundry - they cannot ingress until they neutralize our ADS. they cannot easily neutralize our ADS because we have integrated layered radar activation systems that makes identifying our actual radar arrays extremely difficult.
So therefore, they will be forced to try and hit our jets while they are in the air launching their missiles.
 
snakeeyes07 said:
Ramban one (post below) is most likely MIG-29 UPG

View: https://x.com/clashreport/status/1921685156332470467

View: https://x.com/VJSWRITER/status/1928805308173889644

Pampore one is most likely Mirage-2000

View: https://x.com/NewsIADN/status/1919881495344185537

View: https://x.com/Platypuss_10/status/1919875019326283845

Bathinda one is most likely Rafale due m88 engine and MICA at wreckage site

View: https://x.com/Goreunit/status/1921448314110607360
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complete nonsense. NONE of these videos or pics show a twin engine crash site. So Rafale & Su-30 are ruled out completely.
This cannot be two successive firsts in the world - crash site of twin engine planes with twin engines NOT showing at crash site.
Again. Ask ANY expert on the issue or ANY engineer who's ever done an airline crash report even for university projects. The ONE CONSTANT of 100.00% of ALL air crashes on land, is same # of engines in IMMEDIATE CRASH SITE as engines on claimed crashed plane - commercial, military, figher, bomber or transport- ALL irrelevant. If you cant find two engines at crash site, tis not M-88. The end.

If you ever see a twitter site going 'we assume its either a twin engine ro a single engine plane from what we see on crash site' that site and its report deserves to be treated as toilet paper and i will stake my professional credibility on this, fyi, given this is **BASIC** air crash analysis and one of THE EASIEST things to determine from a land crash site, is how many engines this plane had and what type of engines they were ( as in not maker, but whther its turboprop, turbofan, propeller, etc).

I also have no reason to believe a Mirage-2000 went down, given that mirage 3000 used by Pakis have same engine intake.
 
GaudaNaresh said:
complete nonsense. NONE of these videos or pics show a twin engine crash site. So Rafale & Su-30 are ruled out completely.
This cannot be two successive firsts in the world - crash site of twin engine planes with twin engines NOT showing at crash site.
Again. Ask ANY expert on the issue or ANY engineer who's ever done an airline crash report even for university projects. The ONE CONSTANT of 100.00% of ALL air crashes on land, is same # of engines in IMMEDIATE CRASH SITE as engines on claimed crashed plane - commercial, military, figher, bomber or transport- ALL irrelevant. If you cant find two engines at crash site, tis not M-88. The end.

If you ever see a twitter site going 'we assume its either a twin engine ro a single engine plane from what we see on crash site' that site and its report deserves to be treated as toilet paper and i will stake my professional credibility on this, fyi, given this is **BASIC** air crash analysis and one of THE EASIEST things to determine from a land crash site, is how many engines this plane had and what type of engines they were ( as in not maker, but whther its turboprop, turbofan, propeller, etc).

I also have no reason to believe a Mirage-2000 went down, given that mirage 3000 used by Pakis have same engine intake.
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Are you for serious? If you want to disagree just say that, don't write nonsensical tirades.
 
snakeeyes07 said:
Are you for serious? If you want to disagree just say that, don't write nonsensical tirades.
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None of it is nonsense, saying that shows you are illiterate on actual topic of air crashes- i am not. As i said, if you claim its m-88, SHOW TWO ENGINES AT CRASH SITE. else not m-88. There has never been a twin engine plane crash in history of the world without both engines showing at crash site. There has never been a quadruple engine plane crash on land without all 4 engines showing on crash site. And if you are speculating if the crash site is either a single engine plane OR a double engine plane, you are definitely a TOTAL ZERO on this topic. The end.
This isnt nonsense, this is BASIC knowledge of the topic - dont believe me ? Go ask Mentour Guide on youtube - he is a pilot who does plane videos for years and he will answer your questions. This is complete BS being peddled as evidence.

As evidence - every single plane UKraine has claimed its downed of Russia has decisive evidence of having same # of engines as the said plane is supposed to have AT THE CASH SITE. EVERY SINGLE ONE. But somehow, magic happens over Indian skies and 2nd engine disappears. LMAO.
 
GaudaNaresh said:
None of it is nonsense, saying that shows you are illiterate on actual topic of air crashes- i am not. As i said, if you claim its m-88, SHOW TWO ENGINES AT CRASH SITE. else not m-88. There has never been a twin engine plane crash in history of the world without both engines showing at crash site. There has never been a quadruple engine plane crash on land without all 4 engines showing on crash site. And if you are speculating if the crash site is either a single engine plane OR a double engine plane, you are definitely a TOTAL ZERO on this topic. The end.
This isnt nonsense, this is BASIC knowledge of the topic - dont believe me ? Go ask Mentour Guide on youtube - he is a pilot who does plane videos for years and he will answer your questions. This is complete BS being peddled as evidence.

As evidence - every single plane UKraine has claimed its downed of Russia has decisive evidence of having same # of engines as the said plane is supposed to have AT THE CASH SITE. EVERY SINGLE ONE. But somehow, magic happens over Indian skies and 2nd engine disappears. LMAO.
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Kid, watch the following video from Bathinda crash. The aircraft suffered a destructive hit likely from a heavy SAM. The wreckage would spread over a wide area.


View: https://x.com/Goreunit/status/1921448314110607360

And for your genius aircraft crash investigation skills, Lockerbie crash for context when aircraft breaks up at altitude
The wreckage from the Pan Am Flight 103 bombing was scattered over an area of 845 square miles (2,188 square kilometers). This vast area encompassed a long, narrow corridor, extending from Lockerbie eastward, with debris reaching the east coast of England. The explosion occurred at 30,000 feet, causing the plane to break apart and sending debris raining down over a wide area.
Click to expand...
 
snakeeyes07 said:
Kid, watch the following video from Bathinda crash. The aircraft suffered a destructive hit likely from a heavy SAM. The wreckage would spread over a wide area.


View: https://x.com/Goreunit/status/1921448314110607360

And for your genius aircraft crash investigation skills, Lockerbie crash for context when aircraft breaks up at altitude
Click to expand...

doesnt matter and i am 40+, so watch your mouth, little one. Lockerbie crash site is NOT completely on land, genius. I said with clear-cut qualifier - a crash site 100% on land has 100% rate of yeild same # of engines at crash site as plane flew with. THE END.
It doesnt matter if you hit a jet with 20 missiles straight. Engines are practically indestructable and inseperable in their riveting. This aint Ai-wood or hollywood, this is real deal and even if you hit a plane with 5 freaking sam hits, you will vaporise everything forward of the engines and the rear 30% of the plane will ALWAYS fall more or less intact - looking like a crushed tin can but intact and ALWAYS two engines for two engined craft, 3 for 3, 4 for 4, etc etc. SHOW ME a single evidence of otherwise, fool before you yap.

You are talking to someone who has ancillary resume of contractor for Boeing fyi and i HAVE visited boeing plants in Seattle and i am a math guy who's done analytic consulting before. So STFU and show me two engines or fuck off and dont come with stupid tweets where retards speculate whether the crash site belongs to one engine or two engine craft like total utter noob on the topic.
 
GaudaNaresh said:
doesnt matter and i am 40+, so watch your mouth, little one. Lockerbie crash site is NOT completely on land, genius. I said with clear-cut qualifier - a crash site 100% on land has 100% rate of yeild same # of engines at crash site as plane flew with. THE END.
It doesnt matter if you hit a jet with 20 missiles straight. Engines are practically indestructable and inseperable in their riveting. You are talking to someone who has ancillary resume of contractor for Boeing fyi and i HAVE visited boeing plants in Seattle and i am a math guy who's done analytic consulting before. So STFU and show me two engines or fuck off and dont come with stupid tweets where retards speculate whether the crash site belongs to one engine or two engine craft like total utter noob on the topic.
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Resorting to abuses means you don't have anything to add to your arguments.

Pretty weak for a 40+ who in their own words has an accomplished background.
 
snakeeyes07 said:
Think it through, had a PAF mirage-5 or JF-17 been shot down in Pampore then why wouldn't IAF or government be putting this out as an achievement?
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for several operational reasons too numerous to list here. one of the main ones being decals burnt off so difficult to prove to noobs like you that it is PAF craft. Clearly, you know jack shit about actual airline crash sites and what they entail in range of scenarios.
Another scenario would be that we want to study the actual wreckage with minimum fuss or awareness of the pakis that we have it. Duh.
 
snakeeyes07 said:
Resorting to abuses means you don't have anything to add to your arguments.

Pretty weak for a 40+ who in their own words has an accomplished background.
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You started it by calling me a kid. So i put proper desi-kaku jhappad on you to remind you of your aukaad and lack of knowledge on this. As i said, stop peddling toilet paper analysis where analyst doesnt even know if its a single engine or double engine crash site. Thats noob level 0 on this topic. I aint proessional expert but i aint noob on this topic either.
you have a nearly intact m-88 your idiot source is calling a m-88 but somehow, magically, Indian atmosphere ate the other m-88 engine and its only place on planet where twin engine plane crash site 100% on land has missing 2nd engine. Genius logic.
 
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