Operation Sindoor

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Tom Cooper mentioned one interesting insight in this article and other interviews as well - the IAF likely faced AC losses at the start of Op Sindoor due to no SEAD/DEAD being done. that was either a blunder by the planners, or a deliberate risk taken in order to show the world that we are only striking terror targets.

Won't comment if it was the right or wrong move, but GOI having made it clear that any terror attack going fwd will be treated as an act of war makes the RoE so much easier for the IAF to perform SEAD/DEAD first and then pummel Pak targets. that must've been music to the ears of IAF top brass!

:balleballe:
 
unless some contradictory evidence comes about, my theory goes like this:

for this we have to understand the basic difference between policy agenda of GoI and GoP, GoI treats kashmir as a bilateral issue since simla agreement, GoP wants to internationalise Kashmir issue. GoP wanted to make the best of the situation to bring Kashmir back into international negotiations table, one can just watch all the interviews given by paki gormint spokespersons on gora TV channels these past two weeks.

with this as background, paki army having been a major non-treaty ally of muricans for so many decades know fully well what buttons to push, to get attention from pentagon and WH. they simulated all the telltale signs(explosion at their nuke sites, civilian evacuation, news about boron, and this plane circling ) of a nooclear escalation to get WH's attention knowing fully well pentagon will be monitoring them, and will report to their NSA and secretary of state which is the same person right now i.e rubio. they got what they wanted when orange man added negotiations at neutral venue in his announcement post.

Modi mentioning "nuclear blackmail" in his speech, i think is referencing the above sequence of events.
For your theory to hold good would mean we didn't strike the Kinara Hill storage depot which goes against the material evidence making the rounds of the net.

What would've happened instead is something straight out of the Paxtani playbook since 1998 when they officially became a Nuclear power !

Everytime the situation gets too hot for them or doesn't go as planned be it Kargil or during Operation Parakram or later in 26/11 and on & on is to be seen preparing TELs , Fighter Aircrafts for launch , unusual activities at their known NW production & storage sites etc .

Usually we played out our scripted role & in a way gave in to their N blackmail . This time we didn't stick to the script , something which was out of syllabus for them. Not only are they rattled they must know not what to do ?

Deterrence works only if the enemy is deterred not if he's determined not to be deterred. Threat of usage of Nuclear weapons was their Brahma Astra. It's something rarely used . It certainly isn't something you cry wolf about every now & then . Their bluff was called & how .

The only option for them now is to actually use these nuclear weapons if they can which is if India permits it & if they can summon such will power.

I argue no on both counts. No businessman or enterprise enjoying a flourishing business would do something to jeopardize it . Neither will Fauji Foundation.
 
PAF confirmed losses :

2 x Mirage III/V

  • 24-045
  • 24-051 (?)

1747167048698.webp
Nose Wheel Electric Motor

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Snecma Atar 9 Engine Front Face

1747165712040.webp
Mid and Rear Section


1 x JF-17

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Nose Radome

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Klimov RD 93MA Engine Face

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Fixed Refueling Probe

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Engine Inlet


Unofficial PAF Asset Loss


View: https://x.com/arvind_barmer/status/1921589527212085509
 
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Tom Cooper mentioned one interesting insight in this article and other interviews as well - the IAF likely faced AC losses at the start of Op Sindoor due to no SEAD/DEAD being done. that was either a blunder by the planners, or a deliberate risk taken in order to show the world that we are only striking terror targets.

Won't comment if it was the right or wrong move, but GOI having made it clear that any terror attack going fwd will be treated as an act of war makes the RoE so much easier for the IAF to perform SEAD/DEAD first and then pummel Pak targets. that must've been music to the ears of IAF top brass!

:balleballe:
Thats exactly my analysis said.
We possibly(speculative till IAF confirms), lost platforms when the first commando(Rafale or M2K) went in.
I am not sure if there was signit and comment happening, but looks like it did, by the looks of the # of Radars we have taken out.

Btw - was NGArm used as well?
 
Thats exactly my analysis said.
We possibly(speculative till IAF confirms), lost platforms when the first commando(Rafale or M2K) went in.
I am not sure if there was signit and comment happening, but looks like it did, by the looks of the # of Radars we have taken out.

Btw - was NGArm used as well?
M2K was probably crashed rather than shot down, nothing surprising there .
IAF not denying aircraft loss so rafale might have been shot, concerning thing here is why it wasn't able to use countermeasures.
Su30mki in 2019 had blocked several a2a missiles
 
M2K was probably crashed rather than shot down, nothing surprising there .
IAF not denying aircraft loss so rafale might have been shot, concerning thing here is why it wasn't able to use countermeasures.
Su30mki in 2019 had blocked several a2a missiles
This is what my friend confirmed ..he said M2K was shot down , Rafale was hit but landed to base safely and the frame is in perfect condition so no write off

Again , take this with bucket load of salt
 
This is what my friend confirmed ..he said M2K was shot down , Rafale was hit but landed to base safely and the frame is in perfect condition so no write off

Again , take this with bucket load of salt
IAF was quick to deny s400 rumor
He didn't deny aircraft loss
If rafale landed safely it might have damaged badly so that he couldn't deny.

When we purchase small quantity of fighters from West it's difficult to deny it.
 
UNDP HDI reports came in on the 6th.

India's HDI is 0.685 now. Should be 0.7 in a couple of years which is HIGH HDI. 0.7 and 3rd largest economy should come at the same time. India gained 5 ranks.

Pak is 0.544, a loss of 5 ranks.

In 25 years, Pak won't even be where India is now while India will be a lower end fist world country.

Ofc this is on a per person basis. Overall India will be a superpower.
 
Notice no meteor parts were found in pakistan so we do not habe them in this time so may be the formation was su30 jaugar mk2000 in front line rafale mig29 or teju maharaj at back trjas isliye according to alpha defence
 
Our jo paf ke jet hoge vo humari air defence system ne maare hoge na ki fightet jets ne qki distance of engagement approx 120 km rahi hogi that ye mujhe lagta hai
 
This is what my friend confirmed ..he said M2K was shot down , Rafale was hit but landed to base safely and the frame is in perfect condition so no write off

Again , take this with bucket load of salt

if that snecma engine pic is anything to go by, that rafale is anything but in a perfect condition! however, taking this with plenty of salt as you advise.

also, in light of this SEAD/DEAD issue, i don't think we possess any great SEAD capability. while our DEAD might be decent thanks to rudram and other inventory, i guess SEAD is currently left to AWACs and ground-based electronic warfare systems (and Rafale's SPECTRA?). that should be a priority for investment too IMO
 

Tom Cooper mentioned one interesting insight in this article and other interviews as well - the IAF likely faced AC losses at the start of Op Sindoor due to no SEAD/DEAD being done. that was either a blunder by the planners, or a deliberate risk taken in order to show the world that we are only striking terror targets.

Won't comment if it was the right or wrong move, but GOI having made it clear that any terror attack going fwd will be treated as an act of war makes the RoE so much easier for the IAF to perform SEAD/DEAD first and then pummel Pak targets. that must've been music to the ears of IAF top brass!

:balleballe:
Stupid 'Buddh ka Desh, Yudh ka Nahi' mentality.

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India should offer axxenation plan like kashmir to them

Nah, wouldn't be too practical. They're far away, without proper geographic contiguity, and are pretty distinct + clearly want freedom. What India should do is put everything behind them to become independent, help the Pashtuns of the NW Pakistani "Frontier" region merge back with Afghanistan, try and foment separatism in Sindh & the Southern "Saraiki" part of Pakistani Punjab (and help them become independent countries as well).

The portion that Pakistan calls "AJK" should be left alone except for select, key infiltration routes (eg Haji Pir Pass) & dominating features + Sharda Peeth. That portion is now super radical and has had its demography changed massively by Pak Punjabis. Find a way to merge Gilgit-Baltistan; the connectivity to AFG/Central Asia and completely breaking Pak-Chinese link up are worth their weight in gold. Would also be smart to get a proper foothold in Indian J&K and recaptured G-B with proper demographic rebalancing through West Bank style settler model.

From West Punjab take key features like Akhnoor Dagger, Shakargarh Bulge and key religious sites close to the border like Kartarpur Sahib. From Sindh take the high Hindu population % districts in the East.

Let the remainder of West Punjab + "AJK" be a rump "Pakistan" which is disarmed, denuclearized and essentially defanged + landlocked and at India's mercy permanently.

Turn all the successor states into treaty bound protectorates and keep them firmly in the Indian grip/influence. Find a way to at least de facto (if not completely) merge Nepal, Bhutan and Sri Lanka (there's not much of a reason for any of them to be separate nations, all it does is divide Dharmic peoples and give China various footholds around India).

And finally, some day sort out Bangladesh and take the Rangpur, Rajshahi and (most of) Chittagong Divisions - which have significant Hindu and Buddhist Chakma populations respectively. This would strengthen the Siliguri Corridor and also grant sea access to the Far Northeast.

This would be a "complete" India - and should've been achieved in '47 and immediate post-Independence period under competent leadership.
 
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M2K was probably crashed rather than shot down, nothing surprising there .
IAF not denying aircraft loss so rafale might have been shot, concerning thing here is why it wasn't able to use countermeasures.
Su30mki in 2019 had blocked several a2a missiles
There was no PL15 fired in 2019. Looks like Pakistan got the full range version and not the export version which surprised the IAF
 
It is actually a really curious case. Not a single A2A Indian missile debris was posted, except a single Python-5 seeker. This could anyway be from SPYDER. Other than that neither BVR, nor WVR debris were found. OTOH there are few PL-15 debris. What explains this? Really curious. Were the debris not posted online or not used by IAF for some reason?
 
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