Q) what do you expect? Is this a significant escalation? If so, what is being considered?
Yes, this is a significant escalation — more than typical post-terror attack posturing, but not yet full-scale mobilization like in 2001–2002 (Op Parakram). Here's why this stands out and what might be considered behind the scenes:
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Why it's Significant
1. Tri-Service Activity:
All three services are visibly active — not just in "alert" mode but in forward, demonstrative roles:
Army: 500 Para SF (elite units) redeployed. That’s not routine; they’re meant for rapid, surgical, or high-stakes operations.
IAF: 'Exercise Aakraman' near LoC is not defensive—it’s offensive-readiness signaling.
Navy: INS Vikrant moves west, showing readiness for strategic blockade or deterrence.
2. Doctrine Shift Signals:
This is not about "strategic restraint" anymore. There’s pressure to respond—covert or overt—after 26 civilian deaths. The discourse in CCS circles is likely weighing proportionate vs escalatory retaliation.
3. Permanent Presence Discussions:
The mention of permanent Army/paramilitary presence in Kashmir's interiors is policy-level—not tactical. It hints at a sustained campaign, not just a one-off response.
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What May Be Under Consideration
1. Surgical Strike 2.0 (Covert):
Another cross-border special ops strike targeting JeM or LeT camps in PoK—but deeper, riskier, and more destructive.
2. Air/Artillery Response:
Targeted shelling or limited airstrikes against identified terror launch pads in Pakistan-occupied territory, similar to Balakot—but perhaps more layered.
3. Maritime Posture:
The Navy’s visible role means blockades or power projection near Karachi/Gwadar might be floated if escalation occurs.
4. Diplomatic Shielding:
If any kinetic action is greenlit, India may already be lobbying behind the scenes with major powers to pre-empt Pakistan’s diplomatic backlash.
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Bottom Line
This isn't just saber-rattling. It’s a pressure-building phase with layered options on the table—covert strike, air/artillery hit, cyber, or proxy handling. The window for visible retaliation is 2–4 weeks from trigger (i.e., around mid-May).
Diplomatic Engagements
