For Russia – Either India or China?
The war in Ukraine has cost Russia its superpower status, despite its advanced weaponry and technical expertise. Its economic weakness stems largely from Western sanctions that restrict trade and financial transactions. Still, Russia remains the sixth or seventh largest economy globally. A key strength is its agricultural self-sufficiency, which lends it a measure of independence from the West.
Will Russia resurge? It is highly unlikely as world economics under Western control will make sure that they never acquire the Cold War super power status. Unfortunate for the West, a much bigger economic power in China has emerged, but it is still an second rate military power with third rate military hardware. Hence, China needs Russia and vice versa.
Historically, China and Russia have been rivals. Dating back to the Mongol invasions and subsequent conflicts, including the 1969 Ussuri River clashes, the relationship has been fraught. During the Ukraine war, isolated from the West, Russia turned to China for economic and limited military support, largely in the form of industrial supply. This shift alarmed the West.
China, fueled by massive American foreign investment, has become a manufacturing powerhouse. It excels at reverse engineering but still relies heavily on copying Western and Russian technologies. Its ambitions to surpass the West leave little room for deep ties with either the west or Russia or even India.
India, meanwhile, lags behind both Russia and China in manufacturing and heavy industry but holds an edge in manpower and political alignment. With its focus on economic growth, India has little strategic interest in Russia or China. It leans clearly toward the West, despite its non-aligned policy, which remains a point of friction with Western powers.
While India has reduced its reliance on Russian military hardware, it still depends on Russia for advanced technologies like missiles and nuclear energy. This enduring relationship limits how far India can pivot westward.
In the end, Russia cannot fully align with either China or India. The West will not allow huge progress hence its path forward lies in rebuilding from within, relying on its own resources once the war in Ukraine ends.