Indian Politics and Democracy

[Suryavanshi]

How does one account for migrant population or illegal immigrants apart from over & under reporting?

I believe whatever figure the census throws up we need to add a factor of error of +/- 10% . In case of the peacefuls it should always be + 10% by default . Why?

Friends in my age group among non peacefuls have as a rule a 1 child policy. Sometimes it's no children. Whereas for peacefuls it is 2-3 with the latter number ruling.

And these guys themselves came from large families with each of them having on an average 5-6 siblings.

So yes, it's true their TFR is dropping but it's in a healthy way whilst ours is in an alarming manner. Once again this is based on anecdotal experience subject to the time space dynamic.

I had quite the same kind of observation but I had to reorganize my perspective because ours is a view of the city dweller.

I used to talk to my father and he would say this city(Patna) is full of Muslims, this area has lot of muslim that area has lot of Muslims and than it seemed to me like they were indeed growing very fast.
But............
Muslims are more city centric for some reason.

Here is the data.

This is specially true at least in bihar because many during the 1945-47 riots were forced to flee either to Paksitan/Bangladesh or to the city.
This was the case of my ancestral area where pre 1945 we had two muslim villages in our Panchayat which later they abandoned to go live in city, their empty and rotting mosque is still there.

Hindus in city have less children, Muslims in city have a bit more children and hindu in rural areas have as much children as Muslims in city while whatever little Muslims there are in rural have a bit more children than Rural Hindus.

 

[Suryavanshi]

I have some observations and hypothesis as to why this is the case so I'll write about it later with more effort.

 

[Suryavanshi]

@SKC @crazywithmath @Azaad @eastern_bhartiya
Moved the population topic to this thread since it was taking a religious angle.

 

[crazywithmath]

How does one account for migrant population or illegal immigrants apart from over & under reporting?

I believe whatever figure the census throws up we need to add a factor of error of +/- 10% . In case of the peacefuls it should always be + 10% by default . Why?

Friends in my age group among non peacefuls have as a rule a 1 child policy. Sometimes it's no children. Whereas for peacefuls it is 2-3 with the latter number ruling.

And these guys themselves came from large families with each of them having on an average 5-6 siblings.

So yes, it's true their TFR is dropping but it's in a healthy way whilst ours is in an alarming manner. Once again this is based on anecdotal experience subject to the time space dynamic.

M TFR (as per census 2011) across a number of M majority/near M majority districts are borderline nonsensical and sometimes, even higher than sub Saharan Africa. Makes no sense. Even large scale illegal immigration cannot cause that. There are tehsils with avg M TFR of 5 and even 6!

Also, it makes logical sense too. Ms are disproportionately ghettoized and rarely reside/venture outside M majority areas. Hs are scattered all across the country. I mean, think about it! You come to some remote corner of WB and want to ascertain the number of H workers working outside the state. Running that exercise at one such village is a herculean task in itself. And you have 1000s of villages like that.

Don't think the avg sarkari employee works that sincerely. And there was no digitization or AADHAR data to cross check/double verify back then. Also, there are talks of providing tabs and a dedicated software interface to census workers now but previously, almost the entirety of the data was collected and compiled by hand. And no option of self assessment was ever provided.

 

[Azaad]

M TFR (as per census 2011) across a number of M majority/near M majority districts are borderline nonsensical and sometimes, even higher than sub Saharan Africa. Makes no sense. Even large scale illegal immigration cannot cause that. There are tehsils with avg M TFR of 5 and even 6!

Also, it makes logical sense too. Ms are disproportionately ghettoized and rarely reside/venture outside M majority areas. Hs are scattered all across the country. I mean, think about it! You come to some remote corner of WB and want to ascertain the number of H workers working outside the state. Running that exercise at one such village is a herculean task in itself. And you have 1000s of villages like that.

Don't think the avg sarkari employee works that sincerely. And there was no digitization or AADHAR data to cross check/double verify back then.

But why do you assume they'd be wrong or exaggerated ? How do you know the difference between illegal immigrants & citizens apart from the TFR of both groups ?

We know for a fact that the BD authorities complained loudly in public about the rapid breeding of the Rohingyas they'd sheltered in the Chittagong district .

Guest Column | The Quiet Rohingya Population Explosion in Cox’s Bazaar

The international community’s repatriation policy is a ticking time bomb, as swelling refugee camps fall prey to poverty, radicalization, and typhoons.

www.irrawaddy.com

This is true in general for the peacefuls across the world. India's no exception. You should look carefully at the population of the peacefuls in western UP . That's another ticking timebomb . Around 2/3rds of the population of the peacefuls in UP are located in western UP.

It should be close to 40% of the total population in western UP up from 35% of the general population in the 2011 census , whenever the next census is under taken.

Once again I'm going by anecdotal evidence given I've a number of acquaintances from western UP. Not a single one has less than 3-4 children & these guys are in Mumbai with their families whereas their siblings , cousins etc back home reportedly have 5-6 children on an average.

As you may have guessed they're mostly semi literate to illiterate & are to a man self employed with half of them being entrepreneurs & some of them doing quite well actually but their world view is the same as everywhere , extremely orthodox narrow & rigid bordering on fanaticism .