Indian Politics and Democracy

[Suryavanshi]

How does one account for migrant population or illegal immigrants apart from over & under reporting?

I believe whatever figure the census throws up we need to add a factor of error of +/- 10% . In case of the peacefuls it should always be + 10% by default . Why?

Friends in my age group among non peacefuls have as a rule a 1 child policy. Sometimes it's no children. Whereas for peacefuls it is 2-3 with the latter number ruling.

And these guys themselves came from large families with each of them having on an average 5-6 siblings.

So yes, it's true their TFR is dropping but it's in a healthy way whilst ours is in an alarming manner. Once again this is based on anecdotal experience subject to the time space dynamic.

I had quite the same kind of observation but I had to reorganize my perspective because ours is a view of the city dweller.

I used to talk to my father and he would say this city(Patna) is full of Muslims, this area has lot of muslim that area has lot of Muslims and than it seemed to me like they were indeed growing very fast.
But............
Muslims are more city centric for some reason.

Here is the data.

This is specially true at least in bihar because many during the 1945-47 riots were forced to flee either to Paksitan/Bangladesh or to the city.
This was the case of my ancestral area where pre 1945 we had two muslim villages in our Panchayat which later they abandoned to go live in city, their empty and rotting mosque is still there.

Hindus in city have less children, Muslims in city have a bit more children and hindu in rural areas have as much children as Muslims in city while whatever little Muslims there are in rural have a bit more children than Rural Hindus.

 

[Suryavanshi]

I have some observations and hypothesis as to why this is the case so I'll write about it later with more effort.

 

[Suryavanshi]

@SKC @crazywithmath @Azaad @eastern_bhartiya
Moved the population topic to this thread since it was taking a religious angle.

 

[crazywithmath]

How does one account for migrant population or illegal immigrants apart from over & under reporting?

I believe whatever figure the census throws up we need to add a factor of error of +/- 10% . In case of the peacefuls it should always be + 10% by default . Why?

Friends in my age group among non peacefuls have as a rule a 1 child policy. Sometimes it's no children. Whereas for peacefuls it is 2-3 with the latter number ruling.

And these guys themselves came from large families with each of them having on an average 5-6 siblings.

So yes, it's true their TFR is dropping but it's in a healthy way whilst ours is in an alarming manner. Once again this is based on anecdotal experience subject to the time space dynamic.

M TFR (as per census 2011) across a number of M majority/near M majority districts are borderline nonsensical and sometimes, even higher than sub Saharan Africa. Makes no sense. Even large scale illegal immigration cannot cause that. There are tehsils with avg M TFR of 5 and even 6!

Also, it makes logical sense too. Ms are disproportionately ghettoized and rarely reside/venture outside M majority areas. Hs are scattered all across the country. I mean, think about it! You come to some remote corner of WB and want to ascertain the number of H workers working outside the state. Running that exercise at one such village is a herculean task in itself. And you have 1000s of villages like that.

Don't think the avg sarkari employee works that sincerely. And there was no digitization or AADHAR data to cross check/double verify back then. Also, there are talks of providing tabs and a dedicated software interface to census workers now but previously, almost the entirety of the data was collected and compiled by hand. And no option of self assessment was ever provided.

 

[Azaad]

M TFR (as per census 2011) across a number of M majority/near M majority districts are borderline nonsensical and sometimes, even higher than sub Saharan Africa. Makes no sense. Even large scale illegal immigration cannot cause that. There are tehsils with avg M TFR of 5 and even 6!

Also, it makes logical sense too. Ms are disproportionately ghettoized and rarely reside/venture outside M majority areas. Hs are scattered all across the country. I mean, think about it! You come to some remote corner of WB and want to ascertain the number of H workers working outside the state. Running that exercise at one such village is a herculean task in itself. And you have 1000s of villages like that.

Don't think the avg sarkari employee works that sincerely. And there was no digitization or AADHAR data to cross check/double verify back then.

But why do you assume they'd be wrong or exaggerated ? How do you know the difference between illegal immigrants & citizens apart from the TFR of both groups ?

We know for a fact that the BD authorities complained loudly in public about the rapid breeding of the Rohingyas they'd sheltered in the Chittagong district .

Guest Column | The Quiet Rohingya Population Explosion in Cox’s Bazaar

The international community’s repatriation policy is a ticking time bomb, as swelling refugee camps fall prey to poverty, radicalization, and typhoons.

www.irrawaddy.com

This is true in general for the peacefuls across the world. India's no exception. You should look carefully at the population of the peacefuls in western UP . That's another ticking timebomb . Around 2/3rds of the population of the peacefuls in UP are located in western UP.

It should be close to 40% of the total population in western UP up from 35% of the general population in the 2011 census , whenever the next census is under taken.

Once again I'm going by anecdotal evidence given I've a number of acquaintances from western UP. Not a single one has less than 3-4 children & these guys are in Mumbai with their families whereas their siblings , cousins etc back home reportedly have 5-6 children on an average.

As you may have guessed they're mostly semi literate to illiterate & are to a man self employed with half of them being entrepreneurs & some of them doing quite well actually but their world view is the same as everywhere , extremely orthodox narrow & rigid bordering on fanaticism .

 

[crazywithmath]

But why do you assume they'd be wrong or exaggerated ? How do you know the difference between illegal immigrants & citizens apart from the TFR of both groups ?

Because I have studied some district by district data (all based on 2011 census) and compared them with the electoral performances of various political parties.

For instance,

In WB,

1. The LS constituency of Malda North is 45% M based on 2011 census. Should have been 50% M in 2024 (or more). Had a paltry turnout of 76% (lower than WB avg - which again, makes no sense because M dominated constituencies are supposed to exhibit higher turnouts) and elected a BJP MP.

2. Neighboring Malda South was 59% M in 2011. Based on this trend, should be at least 65% M now. But BJP polled close to 33% there and the constituency elected an INC MP (the sole INC MP from WB). TMC, the preferred choice of WB Ms, received a paltry 20%+ of the VS.

3. There are other constituencies like Raiganj (with close to 50% M population, officially) that elected BJP MPs.

Here, another anecdote from Maharashtra - apparently the Baramati wallah cannot figure out how exactly the BJP and its allies polled 30-35% across 2400 booths with 90-95%ish M voters.



You can find a number of M dominated constituencies in Assam with disproportionate BJP/NDA vote shares.

And many, many more.

I do not have solid evidence to point out anything as of yet, but these are all very compelling pieces of evidence to suggest that Ms are being systematically overestimated in official surveys. It is either that or Ms are being 'secularized'/'bhagwapilled' at breakneck speed. Take your pick!

 

[Azaad]

Because I have studied some district by district data (all based on 2011 census) and compared them with the electoral performances of various political parties.

For instance,

In WB,

1. The LS constituency of Malda North is 45% M based on 2011 census. Should have been 50% M in 2024 (or more). Had a paltry turnout of 76% (lower than WB avg - which again, makes no sense because M dominated constituencies are supposed to exhibit higher turnouts) and elected a BJP MP.

2. Neighboring Malda South was 59% M in 2011. Based on this trend, should be at least 65% M now. But BJP polled close to 33% there and the constituency elected an INC MP (the sole INC MP from WB). TMC, the preferred choice of WB Ms, received a paltry 20%+ of the VS.

3. There are other constituencies like Raiganj (with close to 50% M population, officially) that elected BJP MPs.

I'd see all these pro BJP or at any rate the sole pro Congress result as anti incumbency votes. More anti TMC than pro any other party & if the BJP is the party of choice as the principal opposition with the most chances of stopping the TMC band wagon in that constituency then that's the party which gets their vote.

Do remember the BJP & it's Hindutva brand of politics were never a thing in WB initially because the Marxists were in power all along which never allowed any opposition to survive leave alone thrive with the BJP being a non entity there & later due to Begum & her party nor is the ideology that strong & carries resonance there except in certain pockets before the BJP emerged as the principal opposition party in a phenomenon not more than 5 years old .

Hence whatever negative impression or connotations the BJP & Hindutva carries in WB is second hand based on what other people or outsiders report as opposed to first hand experience of their own . That's how I'd analyse your data points.

Here, another anecdote from Maharashtra - apparently the Baramati wallah cannot figure out how exactly the BJP and its allies polled 30-35% across 2400 booths with 90-95%ish M voters.

View attachment 23939

Frankly I'd take all news reveals about SP with a fistful of salt . That article itself was a giveaway. SP invited SELECT journalists to dictate the agenda which these pimps would then disseminate namely EVMs & its manipulation by the BJP & the NDA.

Moreover they also had his nephew's faction with them this time & more importantly in the recently concluded General Elections the results were the opposite of what it was in the assembly elections. How does SP explain that away ? Perhaps Tridib should be posed this question.

You can find a number of M dominated constituencies in Assam with disproportionate BJP/NDA vote shares.

Can't comment on Assam as I've not privy to much information regarding their voting patterns or distribution of the peacefuls across the state beyond generic information.

And many, many more.

I do not have solid evidence to point out anything as of yet, but these are all very compelling pieces of evidence to suggest that Ms are being systematically overestimated in official surveys.

Up until now there was only 1 census undertaken during the opposition's tenure which was the 2001 census. All the other censuses were conducted under the Congress or UPA regimes up until the present & we haven't had any complaints with that 2001 census till date .

If anything there's always been suspicions in many quarters of under counting the peacefuls especially in censuses undertaken during the Congress's tenure in office.

The BJP plays up the Muslim population bogie which is part of their playbook. What's the Congress's intention in playing up Muslim numbers since we've seen with the Sachar committee report it backfired spectacularly on the Congress after MMS made that infamous statement ?

It is either that or Ms are being 'secularized'/'bhagwapilled' at breakneck speed. Take your pick!

 

[crazywithmath]

I'd see all these pro BJP or at any rate the sole pro Congress result as anti incumbency votes. More anti TMC than pro any other party & if the BJP is the party of choice as the principal opposition with the most chances of stopping the TMC band wagon in that constituency then that's the party which gets their vote.

You can check the results of the 2021 Aseembly polls too.

For instance, the BJP ended up winning Dinhata (a constituency that is supposed to be 60% M) back in 2021.

Or 2019 LS polls.

The trends are very clear. If you do an assembly by assembly comparison, their 2024 performance is almost an exact copy of the 2021 assembly poll result. Anti incumbency does not explain it (anti incumbency is not a factor in WB anyway - the party with the most credible face sweeping the polls is the norm here).

Moreover they also had his nephew's faction with them this time & more importantly in the recently concluded General Elections the results were the opposite of what it was in the assembly elections. How does SP explain that away ?

In any case, M votes getting divided because of anti-incumbency, bifurcation of parties etc is extremely odd. Does it even pass the smell test?

For instance, here in WB, the Ms are always turning out in huge numbers and almost unanimously voting for the TMC wallahs and yet, somehow, division of M votes is supposed to be a trend exclusive to North Bengal constituencies (with a significant % even voting for the BJP)?

Perhaps Tridib should be posed this question.
Up until now there was only 1 census undertaken during the opposition's tenure which was the 2001 census. All the other censuses were conducted under the Congress or UPA regimes up until the present & we haven't had any complaints with that 2001 census till date .

I am not claiming political motivations here. The fault is systematic (I gave you a very brief logical explanation above). And it is not exclusive to census alone. I have written about the NFHS and its heavy rural bias at length before.

 

[Azaad]

You can check the results of the 2021 Aseembly polls too.

For instance, the BJP ended up winning Dinhata (a constituency that is supposed to be 60% M) back in 2011.

Or 2019 LS polls.

The trends are very clear. If you do an assembly by assembly comparison, their 2024 performance is almost an exact copy of the 2021 assembly poll result. Anti incumbency does not explain it (anti incumbency is not a factor in WB anyway - the party with the most credible face sweeping the polls is the norm here).

I'd say you're re iterating my theory of mass disapproval of the TMC candidates in those assembly segments leading to massive anti incumbency.

In any case, M votes getting divided because of anti-incumbency, bifurcation of parties etc is extremely odd. Does it even pass the smell test?

Yes it does. This is SP we're talking of here. Has he provided details of those 2400 booths purportedly populated with upto 94% Muslims . He didn't nor will he ever for his intention is the opposite of what you're trying to ascribe to him .

For instance, here in WB, the Ms are always turning out in huge numbers and almost unanimously voting for the TMC wallahs and yet, somehow, division of M votes is supposed to be a trend exclusive to North Bengal constituencies (with a significant % even voting for the BJP)?

The same peacefuls had no cause to take offense against the Marxists too yet when the rest of the state voted them out & the TMC in , these peacefuls went along. Who knows the internal political dynamics within these individual assembly segments.

How can you be sure there isn't any internal sabotage or people not getting their share of the spoils they believe they're entitled to which in turn is reflected in the the voting patterns in that area ?

I am not claiming political motivations here. The fault is systematic (I gave you a very brief logical explanation above). And it is not exclusive to census alone. I have talked about the NFHS and its heavy rural bias at length.

I'm sorry I'm unaware of your posts on that matter @NFHS & its heavy rural bias at length.