Chinese Economy Watch

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helin said:

View: https://x.com/I_loves_deep_nn/status/1905770282243281130

For China's semiconductor industry, everywhere is full of news and speculation.

In my opinion, the big picture is settled
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The Chinese semiconductor industry is grappling with a quintessential "chicken-and-egg" dilemma, particularly in its pursuit of advanced lithographic capabilities. Legacy ASML systems, such as older extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography machines, present an insurmountable reverse-engineering challenge due to proprietary failsafe mechanisms embedded within their architecture. Even Taiwan, with its unparalleled exposure to cutting-edge semiconductor fabrication through TSMC, has not succeeded in independently replicating these systems—underscoring the technological chasm. The intricacy of ASML’s photon projection systems, coupled with their reliance on highly specialized software and hardware integration, renders the notion of "cracking" these machines unfeasible for China in the near term.

For China to achieve self-sufficiency, two divergent paths emerge: either painstakingly iterate through generational advancements in photon-based lithography—mimicking the evolutionary trajectory of ASML and its peers—or pivot entirely toward a disruptive, paradigm-shifting approach to wafer patterning. The former is a multi-decade endeavor, constrained by both technical expertise and access to foundational intellectual property. The latter, however, offers a tantalizing prospect: with an estimated investment of $300–400 billion USD over a decade, China could channel its considerable pool of PhD-level research into novel lithographic techniques, potentially leapfrogging current standards and establishing a new technological benchmark. Recent advancements in light-source technologies, such as laser-produced plasma (LPP) for EUV, or emerging concepts like multi-beam electron lithography, could serve as viable starting points for such an initiative.

However, the Chinese ecosystem faces critical deficiencies in core competencies that undermine both strategies. Even with older ASML platforms, maintenance and operational proficiency remain elusive. These systems rely on intricate configuration software—often encrypted and remotely managed by ASML—leaving Chinese engineers incapable of performing deep-level servicing or modifications. Reports indicate that China has procured a significant number of these machines, yet lacks the domestic capacity to sustain their operational lifecycle independently. ASML’s decision to establish a maintenance hub in China, ostensibly to support academic and industrial research, highlights this dependency—a move that ensures continued oversight rather than technological transfer.

Optics, while a Chinese strength, is insufficient in isolation. The primary bottleneck lies in managing thermal distortions during the lithographic process—a domain where ASML’s expertise remains unrivaled and closely guarded. Heat-induced aberrations in wafer patterning, mitigated through advanced materials and real-time adaptive optics in ASML’s latest systems (e.g., the NXE:3400C), are a trade secret not even fully disclosed to strategic partners like the United States. Without breakthroughs in thermal management, software integration, and precision engineering, China’s ambitions risk stalling at the prototype phase. Propaganda touting self-reliance may sway domestic sentiment, but it holds no sway over the unforgiving physics of sub-7nm node fabrication.
 
In February this year, China Aviation Industry Corporation (AVIC) discussed the sale of J-35E fighter jets with Saudi Arabia. Priced at $70 million each, these fifth-generation Chinese aircraft, equipped with PL-15 missiles with a range of 200 kilometers, were proposed for a total of 200 units at a cost of $14 billion. However, after testing the jets, the Saudi military expressed dissatisfaction and quickly turned to Turkey, signing an intention to purchase 100 KAAN fifth-generation jets for only $6 billion. To make matters worse, Iran, a close ally in the Middle East, invited Russian Su-57 jets to demonstrate their power in the port of Abadan, while showing no interest in the J-35E. These developments have dealt a heavy blow to the Chinese military industry’s reputation.


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nEHjyrmgXHY
 
Spacemarine said:
Optics, while a Chinese strength, is insufficient in isolation. The primary bottleneck lies in managing thermal distortions during the lithographic process—a domain where ASML’s expertise remains unrivaled and closely guarded. Heat-induced aberrations in wafer patterning, mitigated through advanced materials and real-time adaptive optics in ASML’s latest systems (e.g., the NXE:3400C), are a trade secret not even fully disclosed to strategic partners like the United States. Without breakthroughs in thermal management, software integration, and precision engineering, China’s ambitions risk stalling at the prototype phase. Propaganda touting self-reliance may sway domestic sentiment, but it holds no sway over the unforgiving physics of sub-7nm node fabrication.
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Like sudden appearance of J36 & J50, China always did more talked less, even as Chinese i didn't know before they were online.

Chinese chip industry was pushing two technical routes/makers to produce DUV and EUV, and 5nm is going to be produced this year. One maker is SMEE in Shanghai, one is SiCarrier in Shenzhen.

It's almost like Steam catapult/EMALS of Navy AC, China had two R&D team simultaneously.


View: https://x.com/Ignis_Rex/status/1904873385018220997?t=9-YPVEmnM7qX-iJjgVj-eg&s=19


View: https://x.com/aq_lp0/status/1906517242134802714?t=XadZM27XbsWXmKLUXXJnaA&s=19


View: https://x.com/GuruTrader888/status/1906389534226428407?t=PradyA3KeUHH6gclhOrNKQ&s=19
 
Lcafanboy said:

View: https://x.com/LevinaNeythiri/status/1832429861106782357

Mass loot in China. Location: Zhecheng

Apparently many public institutions in Henan Province haven't been able to pay salaries for 8-9 months..

So CHINKIES have learnt Lessons from their Cut D!k Brothers PORKISTANIS how to Mass Loot Stores, Call Centres....😂😂🤣🤣
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Due to iron curtain many of chinese news regarding social unrest and riots never reach even local
Chinese media let alone international ones,
Even to crawl through chinese fire walled online chinese sites monitored by CCP one needs to have VPN turned off and a chinese ip with chinese phone number,

Its estimated that there are almost 400 thousand protests, rioting etc happen in china in an year way above India.

This is just tip of iceberg which is leaked intentionally to maintain CCP monkey balance,
Chinese as a people are pretty feisty same on the level of chapris in India.

Also I doubt any of these chinese bots posting here are even chinese more like paid bots.
 
rockdog said:
Like sudden appearance of J36 & J50, China always did more talked less, even as Chinese i didn't know before they were online.

Chinese chip industry was push two technical routes/makers to produce DUV and EUV, and 5nm is going to be produced this year. One maker is SMEE in Shanghai, one is SiCarrier in Shenzhen.

It's almost like Steam catapult/EMALS of Navy AC, China had two R&D team simultaneously.


View: https://x.com/Ignis_Rex/status/1904873385018220997?t=9-YPVEmnM7qX-iJjgVj-eg&s=19


View: https://x.com/aq_lp0/status/1906517242134802714?t=XadZM27XbsWXmKLUXXJnaA&s=19


View: https://x.com/GuruTrader888/status/1906389534226428407?t=PradyA3KeUHH6gclhOrNKQ&s=19
Click to expand...


No more propaganda please, this is not youtube or x comments.

No chinese are not anywhere near ASMl and deepseek was not a fork on road in LLMs
 
Spacemarine said:
No more propaganda please, this is not youtube or x comments.

No chinese are not anywhere near ASMl and deepseek was not a fork on road in LLMs
Click to expand...

Your feedback made me recalled the similar attitudes on old DFI before the debut of J20 in 2011 and J36/J50 in 2024.

Talk is cheap, wait less than 12 months, you will see.
 
E-195 said:
In February this year, China Aviation Industry Corporation (AVIC) discussed the sale of J-35E fighter jets with Saudi Arabia. Priced at $70 million each, these fifth-generation Chinese aircraft, equipped with PL-15 missiles with a range of 200 kilometers, were proposed for a total of 200 units at a cost of $14 billion. However, after testing the jets, the Saudi military expressed dissatisfaction and quickly turned to Turkey, signing an intention to purchase 100 KAAN fifth-generation jets for only $6 billion. To make matters worse, Iran, a close ally in the Middle East, invited Russian Su-57 jets to demonstrate their power in the port of Abadan, while showing no interest in the J-35E. These developments have dealt a heavy blow to the Chinese military industry’s reputation.


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nEHjyrmgXHY
Click to expand...


The video doesn't look authentic, “J-35 tested in Saudi Arabia” that statement alone puts dirt in the eyes of listeners.

Chinese might not be on level of Americans but for sure their engines are maturing from 800 hours now they are reaching double of that pretty close to Russians now.
Remember whole aviation industry military or civilian is based on Turbo Fans if a nation becomes confident in its jet engines fighters and civilian jumbo jets can be manufactured with ease.

Saying Saudia chose Kaan over J-35 🤣

Kaan is nothing more than a on surface 5th gen prototype barely flying by older American engines J-35 is miles ahead of so called kaan
 
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rockdog said:

View: https://x.com/madrush1984/status/1905547186890477573?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1905547186890477573%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=



View: https://x.com/RegardApe/status/1906061165534617727?t=DPz43z9kBGs3zN_m4ba5kA&s=19

View attachment 29084


？？
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If the design was faulty why did the Chinese contractor not point it out to the client? Show me the letter of dissent by the Chinese contractor saying they didn't have confidence in the design & would not be responsible for design related issues .

Are you even aware of how things function in the EPC domain internationally?


rockdog said:

View: https://x.com/Kanthan2030/status/1709853118559924364?t=HXtUKOWsS7ei78xLG3oxqA&s=19
Click to expand...

2 billion USD dam? Kanthan is the only Son of a bitch reporting this fake news & why wouldn't he? Coz it's his job to cover up for his paymasters in China.

What do I mean? Just this , that the Chinese man made construction activity in Tibet immediately north of the dam according to this exhaustive study , was one of the contributory factors in the sweeping away of parts of the dam, the immediate cause being the GLOF ( Glacial Lake Outburst Flood) a kind of severe flash flood.


 
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