Chinese Economy Watch

I mean yeah.
Gdp is based on exchange rates to dollar.


PPP is relatively more accurate measure of economic power, especially inside the country.

And actual economic might of country especially when you are looking militarly relies lot more on ppp than gdp.
Majority of the money in a military goes in salary, management, infra, pension, etc.
China can spend 3-4× less US spends per person in these cases

But it's complex too, for more high tech systems(tanks, fighters, missiles etc) the cost is similar internationally at most 20-30% difference( keep other things like scale of production etc as constant here).

The current chinese military budget at ~250billion( +~50 billion hidden budget) is equalivalent to 550-600 billion dollars in US budget.
This takes into account 3-4× reduction in cost of thing I mentioned + similar costs of high tech platform.
Another thing is 550-600 will be if US can use the money as efficiently as chinese, which it doesn't, so 700-800 is more realistic.


Same way india's 75billion dollars budget is equalivalento to ~250 billion dollars.

Russian 110 billion budget due to wartime, is equivalent to ~400-450 billion.

Russian peace time 60-70 billion budget is equalivent to 270-300 billion.

Surprisingly russia gets somewhat more bang for buck than India, that's the power of domestic industry and another main reason why imports are bad.

The concept of PPP is very good.

But it is very difficult to make statistics accurate

The final PPP calculation result is calculated by international organizations (such as the World Bank) or regional institutions based on the data submitted by various countries
 
On May 3rd, China Power Construction Corporation announced that the Guohua Rudong Photovoltaic, Hydrogen and Storage Integration Project, the largest "photovoltaic, hydrogen and storage integration" offshore photovoltaic demonstration project in China and the first ecological governance type tidal flat photovoltaic demonstration project in the country, has achieved full capacity grid connection and power generation.
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This project is located in Rudong County, Nantong City, Jiangsu Province, and utilizes approximately 4,387.5 mu of tidal flats. The total installed capacity is 400,000 kilowatts, with the construction of a step-up substation, energy storage facilities, and hydrogen production and refueling stations as supporting facilities. The average annual grid-connected power generation of the project is 462.934 million kilowatt-hours.

This project is designed by the East China Institute, a subsidiary of PowerChina, and contracted and constructed by the Central South Institute. After its completion and commissioning, it can reduce carbon dioxide emissions by approximately 309,400 tons annually, equivalent to adding 1.5 forest carbon sinks to the West Lake scenic Area.



The "Integrated Photovoltaic, Hydrogen and Storage" project in Rudong is one of the third batch of national "large-scale Photovoltaic base Projects for Deserts and wastelands". This project also makes full use of coastal tidal flat resources, adopts advanced photovoltaic technology and intelligent control systems to achieve efficient energy conversion and storage, and combines the hydrogen production process by electrolyzing water to produce hydrogen, further enhancing energy utilization efficiency. The completion of the entire project will significantly increase the peak shaving capacity and power supply stability of the regional power grid.
 
The concept of PPP is very good.

But it is very difficult to make statistics accurate

The final PPP calculation result is calculated by international organizations (such as the World Bank) or regional institutions based on the data submitted by various countries
Yeah, but solely relying on ppp for overall economic might is also misleading.

If we're looking at one single metric then military budget in dollar and ratio to overall gdp in dollars.
Basically take 2% of gdp of each country in dollars, that 2% is standard defense budget.
Now find out the actual equaivalent value of that budget US would need to spend for same bang.
Rank the equalivent value of budgets, and economic might ranking is complete.

This also shows military domestic industrial might.

Basically fed this in AI.
Got these result.

In this way, overall top economies will be
1, USA( still leads china by little bit, so still the overall biggest economy)
2, China
3, India
4 russia
5, japan
6, Germany
7, france
8, UK
9, south korea
10, Saudi Arabia.

So it does kind of mimics ppp ranking.

For example here's top 10 ppp ranking.
1. China
2. United States
3. India
4. Japan
5. Germany
6. Russia
7. Indonesia
8. Brazil
9. United Kingdom
10. France
 
Yeah, but solely relying on ppp for overall economic might is also misleading.

If we're looking at one single metric then military budget in dollar and ratio to overall gdp in dollars.
Basically take 2% of gdp of each country in dollars, that 2% is standard defense budget.
Now find out the actual equaivalent value of that budget US would need to spend for same bang.
Rank the equalivent value of budgets, and economic might ranking is complete.

This also shows military domestic industrial might.

Basically fed this in AI.
Got these result.

In this way, overall top economies will be
1, USA( still leads china by little bit, so still the overall biggest economy)
2, China
3, India
4 russia
5, japan
6, Germany
7, france
8, UK
9, south korea
10, Saudi Arabia.

So it does kind of mimics ppp ranking.

For example here's top 10 ppp ranking.
1. China
2. United States
3. India
4. Japan
5. Germany
6. Russia
7. Indonesia
8. Brazil
9. United Kingdom
10. France
Roughly correct

Except for Saudi Arabia
 
Roughly correct

Except for Saudi Arabia
Saudis have lots of unspent money due to not having as big of a population to care about, and it's people are not it's main money makers.

Oil is.
So economy wise it's not wrong to put them in 10th place.

But they import all of their military gear
 
China’s Export Economy in Free Fall

Profound instability is quietly overtaking China. While Chinese leaders exude confidence that they will prevail in the ongoing trade war with the United States, the reality on the ground tells a different story. Factories are shutting down, American export orders are being canceled, and efforts to offload goods in other markets—including domestically at rock-bottom prices—are proving increasingly difficult. Shortage of American made chips is forcing further production cutbacks in car making industry. Hence, nothing but trouble.

According to The Economist (UK), if U.S. tariffs remain at their current levels, Chinese exports to America could drop dramatically—by as much as 77%. Last year, China exported approximately $440 billion worth of goods to the U.S., underscoring the potentially devastating scale of this decline.

Adding to the pressure, other countries—either in solidarity with the U.S. or out of caution—may also reduce or cancel orders. The result could be a collapse in China’s export-driven economy.
However, this is not a one-sided crisis. The U.S. will suffer too. Instead of buying twenty new dresses a year, American consumers may settle for five or fewer. Children may receive fewer toys, and households might delay purchasing new vehicles, as heavily taxed imported components push prices higher. Recently released statistics already show that the U.S. economy has slowed in response to these tariffs, suggesting the early stages of a recession.

So far, there is little sign that manufacturing is returning to the U.S. Major corporations, such as Apple—which currently produces 80% of its products in China—are slowly shifting operations to countries like India, but not back to America. This trend is echoed across other industries.
The full impact of reduced exports to the U.S. will become clearer over the next three to six months. But in the meantime, the U.S. faces another pressing issue: dwindling supplies of rare earth elements, which are critical to numerous high-tech industries and overwhelmingly sourced from China.’

The central question now is: who will blink first?
If the U.S. backs down and seeks negotiations, it may be seen globally as a sign of diminished leadership and influence. On the other hand, if China capitulates, it risks permanently losing its standing as the world’s manufacturing and export powerhouse. In this escalating standoff, there appears to be no middle ground.
 
Both Dalian and Chengdu club reached record high attendances in China Super league this holiday weekend.

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China’s Export Economy in Free Fall,

Notice, this is also a Hong Kong in the ranking.

Profound instability is quietly overtaking China. While Chinese leaders exude confidence that they will prevail in the ongoing trade war with the United States, the reality on the ground tells a different story. Factories are shutting down, American export orders are being canceled, and efforts to offload goods in other markets—including domestically at rock-bottom prices—are proving increasingly difficult. Shortage of American made chips is forcing further production cutbacks in car making industry. Hence, nothing but trouble.

According to The Economist (UK), if U.S. tariffs remain at their current levels, Chinese exports to America could drop dramatically—by as much as 77%. Last year, China exported approximately $440 billion worth of goods to the U.S., underscoring the potentially devastating scale of this decline.

Adding to the pressure, other countries—either in solidarity with the U.S. or out of caution—may also reduce or cancel orders. The result could be a collapse in China’s export-driven economy.
However, this is not a one-sided crisis. The U.S. will suffer too. Instead of buying twenty new dresses a year, American consumers may settle for five or fewer. Children may receive fewer toys, and households might delay purchasing new vehicles, as heavily taxed imported components push prices higher. Recently released statistics already show that the U.S. economy has slowed in response to these tariffs, suggesting the early stages of a recession.

So far, there is little sign that manufacturing is returning to the U.S. Major corporations, such as Apple—which currently produces 80% of its products in China—are slowly shifting operations to countries like India, but not back to America. This trend is echoed across other industries.
The full impact of reduced exports to the U.S. will become clearer over the next three to six months. But in the meantime, the U.S. faces another pressing issue: dwindling supplies of rare earth elements, which are critical to numerous high-tech industries and overwhelmingly sourced from China.’

The central question now is: who will blink first?
If the U.S. backs down and seeks negotiations, it may be seen globally as a sign of diminished leadership and influence. On the other hand, if China capitulates, it risks permanently losing its standing as the world’s manufacturing and export powerhouse. In this escalating standoff, there appears to be no middle ground.


China has similar GDP size as US, without massive real war, there won't be "free fall"


View: https://x.com/soicfinance/status/1918252968866205747?t=7g2zId53pSiMmC9zYZJrtw&s=19
 

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