Chinese Economy Watch

rockdog said:
I think it's talking about Su27/Su30mki


View: https://x.com/BeijingDai/status/1889470089357144534?t=ocvZFjQxVXTu8qzvO2fPuw&s=19
Click to expand...

What that wu-Mao didn't add was that The Han were so accomodating that they provided them their own women as per their ancient traditions & got as many secrets out of them as possible.

They also paid them off when they couldn't be honey trapped. It's thanks to all these efforts Zhongguo managed to get their Turbo Fan program on track & take their aircraft building program at another level.

Completely believable isn't it ?
 
helin said:
Of course,

The result is more important than the process

Here's to the abandoned Soviet project of the 1980s
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you pretend to be very practical, but remember evil practices are always destroyed, funny prostitutes will say the same
 

View: https://twitter.com/codyaims/status/1889140747284468088?s=19

Just remember "China rounds down". Small business -> 0. They have effectively infinite demand for their services so they care about zero about you. Small IP -> 0. Circuit schematics with <5 pages are considered open source to them. "Product/branding concept" is not IP to them.

if you build something in either high volume/high cost AND your product is sufficiently complicated, they tend to not bother copying or muntzing it.
Click to expand...

Han business ethics!!

Where CCP Han masters cheat their Han slaves, Han slaves cheat their Han masters, Han masters cheat fellow Han masters, Han slaves cheat fellow Han slaves & all of them put together cheat the whole world.

What a wonderful society & nation the Han is?! Even Confucius would be proud of the Han. So would great helmsman 1.0 for avenging the century of humiliation.

You ought to be proud of your nation & people @rockdog
 
helin said:
To do that, you have to increase tariffs on all countries,

Tariffs on China alone will not do that
Click to expand...
I think to bring back manufacturing USD can't be reserve currency/the destination for global excess savings.

Till that happens the US #1 export will be the dollar at the expense of everything else.

They need to force a USD devaluation. Maybe tariffs are their way of getting the ball rolling.

Hopefully the reserve asset to settle global trade is gold.

The transition will be painful for everybody but the other side will be prosperous for world. I think a lot of societies ills stem from the fact that worlds economic activity is based on bullshit printed in any one country.

disclaimer:

I'm heavily invested in junior gold miners :)
 
Nibbler said:
I think to bring back manufacturing USD can't be reserve currency/the destination for global excess savings.

Till that happens the US #1 export will be the dollar at the expense of everything else.

They need to force a USD devaluation. Maybe tariffs are their way of getting the ball rolling.

Hopefully the reserve asset to settle global trade is gold.

The transition will be painful for everybody but the other side will be prosperous for world. I think a lot of societies ills stem from the fact that worlds economic activity is based on bullshit printed in any one country.

disclaimer:

I'm heavily invested in junior gold miners :)
Click to expand...
The USD was the reserve currency post Breton Woods after the end of WW-2 & both - a mfg powerhouse plus exporter right till the end of the last millennium. It still mfg & exports a lot though not as much as before for obvious reasons.
 
Azaad said:
The USD was the reserve currency post Breton Woods after the end of WW-2 & both - a mfg powerhouse plus exporter right till the end of the last millennium. It still mfg & exports a lot though not as much as before for obvious reasons.
Click to expand...
USD was directly convertible to gold till 1971.

US absolutley was and is still a manufa turing power. Just the relative decline is huge.

Germany and Japan started taking part of their pie as soon as they rebuilt after ww2.

They had to do plaza accords cause of how much japan was eating their lunch in the last millennium. Which bought them a few years till china's WTO admission.

They will always be plugging holes on a leaky dam as long as the monetary system is what it is IMO.

It just makes no sense to pay the costs to manufacture in America for many many things.

Even their services are getting offshored now to india. Which is causing white collar butthurt all over the internet. I'm sure its another hole I'm sure they would like to plug
 
Azaad said:

View: https://twitter.com/codyaims/status/1889140747284468088?s=19



Han business ethics!!

Where CCP Han masters cheat their Han slaves, Han slaves cheat their Han masters, Han masters cheat fellow Han masters, Han slaves cheat fellow Han slaves & all of them put together cheat the whole world.

What a wonderful society & nation the Han is?! Even Confucius would be proud of the Han. So would great helmsman 1.0 for avenging the century of humiliation.

You ought to be proud of your nation & people @rockdog
Click to expand...


'China eats the world' as DeepSeek shows its strength in high-value sectors: Deutsche Bank


The launch of DeepSeek has unsettled the world's belief that it "could contain China", said Deutsche Bank, calling the emergence of the artificial-intelligence (AI) technology the country's "Sputnik moment".

By characterising the start-up's achievement as a significant turning point for the country, the bank goes further than Marc Andreessen, the influential Silicon Valley venture capitalist, who referred to DeepSeek as a Sputnik moment for the AI sector. The comments refer to Soviet Union's launch of the world's first artificial satellite in 1957, which instantly changed perceptions of that country.

"We think 2025 is the year the investing world realises China is outcompeting the rest of the world," Deutsche Bank said on Wednesday in a report titled "China Eats the World", seen by the Post.

Do you have questions about the biggest topics and trends from around the world? Get the answers with SCMP Knowledge, our new platform of curated content with explainers, FAQs, analyses and infographics brought to you by our award-winning team.

The bank was already bullish on Chinese companies, but had been uncertain about what would trigger a global rush into them until now, it said. "We believe the bull market for [Hong Kong and China] equities began in 2024, and will exceed prior highs in the medium term," said the report, authored by research analyst Peter Milliken.

China's dominance in high-value industries was expanding at an unprecedented pace, according to the bank. With world-leading companies gaining market share across industries, China was unlikely to remain a single-digit percentage of global market capitalisation for long.


DeepSeek's overnight fame has led to a rally in Chinese technology stocks, while triggering a sell-off in Nasdaq-listed firms. The Hang Seng Tech Index, led by major companies such as Tencent Holdings, Alibaba Group Holding, and Xiaomi, approached a four-month high on Thursday after surging more than 10 per cent in the past two weeks. The broader Hang Seng Index also rose about 6 per cent. Shares of DeepSeek, founded in the Zhejiang provincial capital of Hangzhou by Liang Wenfeng in 2023, are not publicly traded.

Deutsche Bank's report dismissed some of the concerns about Chinese stocks - from US- China relations to a prolonged property downturn - by arguing that they could have positive outcomes, even in terms of tariffs, which the bank estimated could end up being 20 per cent.

US President Donald Trump behaved more like a trader than an investor, the report said. "If so, expect him to run a fairly tight stop-loss limit," the bank added, suggesting that Trump would adjust the policy if tariffs become unfavourable.

Concern over China's declining population missed the big picture, the report said. China's lead in automation gave the country a productivity advantage, it said. With programmes like the Belt and Road Initiative, China was expanding its economic reach to sell more to a larger population.

There are as many consumers in Africa, Central and South Asia, Asean, and Latin America as in China, and "if things get more friendly, as many people to sell to in India", it said.

Addressing a common comparison, the bank said that China resembled Japan in the early 1980s, with rapid innovation and cost-effective, high-quality products, rather than Japan in 1989, when its economy peaked before stagnating.

"Like Japan, China has had an extreme property bubble, but not nearly as extreme," Deutsche Bank said.

China's home sales fell by 17.6 per cent in 2024 and are expected to drop 9 per cent in 2025, extending a deep correction to 56 per cent since the all-time high in 2021, according to a report published by Goldman Sachs this week.
 
rockdog said:
'China eats the world' as DeepSeek shows its strength in high-value sectors: Deutsche Bank


The launch of DeepSeek has unsettled the world's belief that it "could contain China", said Deutsche Bank, calling the emergence of the artificial-intelligence (AI) technology the country's "Sputnik moment".

By characterising the start-up's achievement as a significant turning point for the country, the bank goes further than Marc Andreessen, the influential Silicon Valley venture capitalist, who referred to DeepSeek as a Sputnik moment for the AI sector. The comments refer to Soviet Union's launch of the world's first artificial satellite in 1957, which instantly changed perceptions of that country.

"We think 2025 is the year the investing world realises China is outcompeting the rest of the world," Deutsche Bank said on Wednesday in a report titled "China Eats the World", seen by the Post.

Do you have questions about the biggest topics and trends from around the world? Get the answers with SCMP Knowledge, our new platform of curated content with explainers, FAQs, analyses and infographics brought to you by our award-winning team.

The bank was already bullish on Chinese companies, but had been uncertain about what would trigger a global rush into them until now, it said. "We believe the bull market for [Hong Kong and China] equities began in 2024, and will exceed prior highs in the medium term," said the report, authored by research analyst Peter Milliken.

China's dominance in high-value industries was expanding at an unprecedented pace, according to the bank. With world-leading companies gaining market share across industries, China was unlikely to remain a single-digit percentage of global market capitalisation for long.


DeepSeek's overnight fame has led to a rally in Chinese technology stocks, while triggering a sell-off in Nasdaq-listed firms. The Hang Seng Tech Index, led by major companies such as Tencent Holdings, Alibaba Group Holding, and Xiaomi, approached a four-month high on Thursday after surging more than 10 per cent in the past two weeks. The broader Hang Seng Index also rose about 6 per cent. Shares of DeepSeek, founded in the Zhejiang provincial capital of Hangzhou by Liang Wenfeng in 2023, are not publicly traded.

Deutsche Bank's report dismissed some of the concerns about Chinese stocks - from US- China relations to a prolonged property downturn - by arguing that they could have positive outcomes, even in terms of tariffs, which the bank estimated could end up being 20 per cent.

US President Donald Trump behaved more like a trader than an investor, the report said. "If so, expect him to run a fairly tight stop-loss limit," the bank added, suggesting that Trump would adjust the policy if tariffs become unfavourable.

Concern over China's declining population missed the big picture, the report said. China's lead in automation gave the country a productivity advantage, it said. With programmes like the Belt and Road Initiative, China was expanding its economic reach to sell more to a larger population.

There are as many consumers in Africa, Central and South Asia, Asean, and Latin America as in China, and "if things get more friendly, as many people to sell to in India", it said.

Addressing a common comparison, the bank said that China resembled Japan in the early 1980s, with rapid innovation and cost-effective, high-quality products, rather than Japan in 1989, when its economy peaked before stagnating.

"Like Japan, China has had an extreme property bubble, but not nearly as extreme," Deutsche Bank said.

China's home sales fell by 17.6 per cent in 2024 and are expected to drop 9 per cent in 2025, extending a deep correction to 56 per cent since the all-time high in 2021, according to a report published by Goldman Sachs this week.
Click to expand...

Deutsche Bank's full report: China's "Sputnik moment"
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Deutsche Bank's full report: China's "Sputnik moment"

Jinse Finance"National-level" technical breakthrough Deepseek, the subsequent impact is still fermenting, the entire Chinese asset may need to be revalued.On February 5, 2025, Deutsche Bank released a...
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Here is the English translation of the text, with the specified terms translated as instructed:
Author: 0xjs@Jinse Finance

The "national-level" technological breakthrough of Deepseek is continuing to ferment, and the entire Chinese asset may need to be revalued.

On February 5, 2025, Deutsche Bank released a research report "China eats the World", which went viral among investors. Deutsche Bank stated that 2025 will be the year when China surpasses other countries. In 2025, China launched the world's first sixth-generation fighter jet and the low-cost artificial intelligence system "DeepSeek" within a week. Marc Andreessen called the launch of "DeepSeek" the "Sputnik moment" of AI, but it is more like China's "Sputnik moment", marking the recognition of China's intellectual property rights. China's performance in high-value-added fields and its dominance of the supply chain are expanding at an unprecedented pace. China has companies that are leaders in almost every industry, and as Chinese companies expand in the global market, China's valuation discount should turn into a premium at some point in the future. Investors must significantly shift towards investing in Chinese stocks in the medium term, and Hong Kong/Chinese stocks will see a major bull market in the medium term.

It is worth noting that the title of the research report borrows the famous quote from a16z founder Marc Andreessen: "Software is eating the world", and the first part of the report "This is China's, not AI's, 'Sputnik moment'" also borrows Marc Andreessen's recent comment on DeepSeek: "DeepSeek is AI's Sputnik moment".

The full text of the Deutsche Bank research report is as follows:

Original Title: China eats the World​

Author: Peter Milliken, CFA, Research Analyst

This is China's, not AI's, "Sputnik moment"​

We believe 2025 will be the year when the investment community realizes that China is surpassing the rest of the world. Increasingly, it is hard to ignore the fact that Chinese companies are offering better value for money, and often higher quality, in multiple manufacturing sectors, and even in an increasing number of service areas.

Investors will have to pay the price to be in the driver

...

....


....
 
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