The Inevitable India-Pakistan War: A Likely Scenario
Tensions between India and Pakistan continue to rise, making the possibility of an all-out war increasingly likely. Misguided intelligence and exaggerated perceptions of Pakistan’s military strength fuel this threat, rooted in resentment over India’s economic success, which is seen with envy and alarm by many in Pakistan.
Pakistan reportedly holds around 160 tactical nuclear weapons with a yield of about 5 kilotons each. However, these have not been mated with delivery systems like missiles or bombers. Speculation in India suggests that the United States may possess mechanisms to neutralize Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities to prevent their use, aiming to avoid a nuclear confrontation between the two South Asian nations.
Historically, Kashmir was central to the wars of 1948, 1965, 1971, and 1999, but its importance has diminished among Pakistan’s leadership. With terrorism losing its potency as a tool against India and increasing calls from Pakistan-occupied Kashmir to join India due to visible economic disparities, new grievances are likely to emerge.
One potential flashpoint is water rights. The Indus Water Treaty of 1960 heavily favors Pakistan, but climate change has reduced water flows. The Pakistani public, often misled, blames India for water shortages, making this a plausible pretext for conflict. Similarly, terrorist attacks, like those in Mumbai (2008) or Uri (2016), could serve as triggers.
Jihadi propaganda has instilled a misguided belief in Pakistan’s public that victory over India is inevitable. Madrassas propagate myths of superior valor, reinforcing delusional confidence of one Islamist Pakistani Jihadi is equal to fifty thousand Hindus in India, despite Pakistan’s repeated defeats in previous wars. But the propaganda continues.
India’s Strategic Superiority:
India has significantly modernized its military to counter threats:
• Army: Advanced tanks, superior artillery, improved missile systems, improved surveillance system and upcoming integrated theatre commands are precursor to victory on the ground.
• Air Force: Modern hardware and precision weapons, despite a shortage of fighters which in three years will be remedied is a sure sign to keep any enemy at bay.
• Navy: Dominant capabilities of Indian Navy ensure control over maritime operations.
In addition, India’s missile defense system is robust enough to neutralize incoming threats, and additional military hardware, both locally produced and imported, will further enhance its defences against nuclear missile threats.
While China’s involvement on Pakistan’s behalf remains a concern, it seems unlikely due to recent de-escalation and strong India-China trade ties. Moreover, Chinese always worry about Pakistani Jihadis instigating large Chinese Muslim population. They other than supply cheap military hardware to Pakistan will not help any further. If necessary, India could rely on Russian support.
Conclusion
The risk of war remains, fueled by propaganda, resentment, and manufactured grievances. While India’s preparedness may serve as a deterrent to Pakistan, the persistent jihadi mindset presents a distinct and complex challenge, underscoring the need for global intervention to mitigate the nuclear threat. Pakistan’s current economic crisis significantly diminishes its ability to initiate conflict. However, the unpredictability of the jihadi mindset in the future makes it difficult to control. Therefore, India’s best course of action is to remain vigilant and prepared.