Pakistan’s bonhomie with China
Are China and Pakistan natural allies? No, they are not. Could Islam and Communism find common ground, even over lunch? Unlikely. If China were to face off with the U.S. in the Indo-Pacific, Taiwan, or the Philippines, would Pakistan rush to its aid? Not likely. Pakistan, with its struggling economy, is far from being in a position to offer support anytime soon. The distant future remains uncertain, but for now, its economic woes are deep and immediate.
So, what is India afraid of?
The concern is not that Pakistan is overwhelmingly powerful. Yes, it has a 600,000-strong army, but it’s not enough to decisively confront India, which has equipped itself to handle both Pakistan and China simultaneously. Pakistan knows this well. Its hope rests on China opening a second front, avoiding another defeat like in the 1971 war, when India reached Dhaka before China could intervene at the behest of Nixon and Kissinger.
Following multiple defeats at India’s hands, Pakistan devised a new strategy. While it still relied on U.S. aid for decades, it began shifting towards China, building strategic ties that China found advantageous. By aligning with Pakistan, China could attempt to contain India without directly confronting U.S. power in the Indo-Pacific. This led to Pakistan granting China access to the Gwadar Port, and in return, China built the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), including a road through the Khunjerab Pass at an elevation of 13,000 feet.
However, China hadn’t anticipated Pakistan’s severe economic crisis, which has undermined their joint strategy. Another challenge is that, despite China’s military growth over the past 20 years, its forces are no match for the combined might of the U.S., Japan, Australia, and India in the Indo-Pacific. China’s sea trade and untested navy remain vulnerable, a reality Beijing may not have fully considered. As a result, China's utility to Pakistan, beyond diplomatic posturing, is limited.
India's Response
India has been preparing for the dual threat posed by Pakistan and China. Over the last decade, India has heavily invested in its army and infrastructure in the Himalayas. Its army, navy, and air force are undergoing modernization with both adversaries in mind. Previously neglected, India’s Himalayan infrastructure is now being rapidly developed, particularly with Chinese incursions in mind. In the past five years, India has stationed 50,000 troops along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), effectively matching China’s buildup and preventing further Chinese advances.
Observing these developments, Chinese officials have begun engaging more diplomatically with India, signaling that Beijing understands India’s readiness. Meanwhile, India's economic progress has been undeniable. As Pakistan’s economy collapses, India is on track to become a $5 trillion economy soon, with projections of $10 trillion within five years. China cannot afford to ignore this growth. Eventually, Beijing may prioritize trade over unnecessary conflicts, no matter how much Pakistan tries to escalate tensions.