India@100: Making India a $30 trillion economy.

[Aditya10r]

Dear Members,

On the previous Forum, @Indx TechStyle created a great post that kept track of all the developments in the economic sphere of this country and it was a great place to discuss issues about economic growth and social change.

With this post, I would like to reinvigorate the same spirit to discuss and make our predictions about our economy when this nation turns 100.

Right now our nation is dealing with crippling levels of poverty which results in socio-political tensions. I would like the members to discuss the issues of socio-economic in nature, geo-economics, and military strategy to preserve our Independent Foreign Policy and expansion of our great civilization.

I am attaching the first article for this post. Hope you will keep the discussion civil and will impart your knowledge and wisdom with the rest of us and will also take the liberty to learn about new things.

India @ 100

 

[Aditya10r]

@nongaddarliberal @haldilal @ezsasa @Captscooby

 

[FalconSlayers]

Generic question: Do we have enough resources to sustain a $30 trillion economy? USA and China are very resource rich.

 

[Aditya10r]

Generic question: Do we have enough resources to sustain a $30 trillion economy? USA and China are very resource rich.

Yes, we do.

Not in petroleum and some other rare earth minerals. However, aluminum bauxite, iron, coal, uranium, thorium, arable land, and water resources are adequate to support the present population and even a 30 trillion economy in 20 years. Their proper use and recycling methodologies can surely be improved for better resource use.

We have the 3rd largest titanium reserves, largest thorium reserves, 10th largest uranium reserves, 10th largest bauxite reserves, 8th largest copper reserves, and so on.

 

[Indx TechStyle]

$30 trillions of nominal GDP with a population of 1.6 billion in 2047 calculates a nominal GDP per capita of $18000-20000 which is not bad (not good either), India will still be equal or behind East European states. It still is an optimistic projection against current GDP per capita of $2700 which is abysmally low even in developing world.

@Aditya10r I am anyway sticking thread and continuing socio economic development related data and updates here from now on.

Related to GDP, per capita, projected GDP, GNI, literacy, infant mortality, years of schooling, food security, fragile states index, HDI, IDHI and so forth here.

 

[Indx TechStyle]

@SKC If forum can permit uploading of excel files, we can archive a lot of data which is otherwise deleted from organizational websites upon updates.

Projected GDP per capita for South Asian States per updated World Economic Outlook October 2024. Data has not been updated on wikipedia by anyone yet. So, don't bother correlating.
You can access complete data for world from below URL.

https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/datasets/WEO

Following is the GDP per capita for South Asian states 2020-2029 per latest WEO projection for the sake of India's comparison. Empty spaces means no economic outlook and economic forecast if country is not predictable owing to internal instability and economic crisis.

 

[Indx TechStyle]

GDP 2020-2029 from WEO data for 10 largest economies in 2024.

 

[Indx TechStyle]

Downloaded from World Population Proospects.
Population indicators for world's most populated countries for 2023.


India's fertility rate: 1.98 (below replacement)

There has beeen huge improvement in infant mortality rates in past 5 years.

 

[GaudaNaresh]

Generic question: Do we have enough resources to sustain a $30 trillion economy? USA and China are very resource rich.

Yes but also not a very relevant question because resources can be obtained and will be obtained once one has industrial muscle. Countries like Germany, France, UK, Japan are all resource poor and have been so since the early 1900s when they tapped out their local coal & iron reservoirs, but still kept industrializing, because the bottomline of the world is, if you can make products at cheap rate and good quality, finding raw materials to make said products will not be a big issue.

India is resource rich in plenty of minerals and has one of the greatest resources a nation can ask for - largest amount of arable land in the world. If India can keep its agricultural sector continue in its yeilds and efficiency, it alone can feed half the planet.
India's central location in the world - it is practically the mid point of the world's population centre of gravity and far greater proximity to middle east & africa puts India in an ideal geopolitical location to not worry about import-export.
But to get there, India needs a lot more structural reform and infrastructure. Which this govt. is doing.

 

[FalconSlayers]

$30 trillions of nominal GDP with a population of 1.6 billion in 2047 calculates a nominal GDP per capita of $18000-20000 which is not bad (not good either), India will still be equal or behind East European states. It still is an optimistic projection against current GDP per capita of $2700 which is abysmally low even in developing world.

@Aditya10r I am anyway sticking thread and continuing socio economic development related data and updates here from now on.

Related to GDP, per capita, projected GDP, GNI, literacy, infant mortality, years of schooling, food security, fragile states index, HDI, IDHI and so forth here.

You do realise that India ideally can match European standards of living with <15k nominal GDP per capita? Calculating economic output in terms of value is cool, but what about volume? Instead of GDP per capita, ideally we should target >5000 KWh electricity consumption per capita.

 

[Indx TechStyle]

You do realise that India ideally can match European standards of living with <15k nominal GDP per capita?

For a very good reason, we measurem GDP per capita in PPP.
$45000 GDP per capita in PPP will 30-50% of Europe/US adjusting inflation. So no, India won't match living standards of West and North Europe till end of century.

 

[Vinash]

@SKC If forum can permit uploading of excel files, we can archive a lot of data which is otherwise deleted from organizational websites upon updates.

Just came across this request.

I've enabled the feature to upload excel files to DFB. Right now, I've limited the file size to 8 MB.

Good luck.

 

[FalconSlayers]

For a very good reason, we measurem GDP per capita in PPP.
$45000 GDP per capita in PPP will 30-50% of Europe/US adjusting inflation. So no, India won't match living standards of West and North Europe till end of century.

It depends on who calculates the GDP in PPP terms. Countries with declining industrial output still have fast growing GDP per capita even in PPP terms as per IMF.

 

[maximus777]

There is a huge fallacy in this 30T economy projection. For all its faults, Mudiji's 10+ years have provided the much-needed stability and policies somewhat aligned with national interests. By some freak event, if we get a UPA 3.0 and 4.0, it could easily reverse the gains. Plus the demography is changing at a scary pace and religions of peacefuls + lovelies will not rest until the nation is splintered. Demography is destiny!! So unless a staunchly nationalistic govt is in power until 2047, we can kiss all plans of being a suppa pawah goodbye!

 

[NerVik]

There is a huge fallacy in this 30T economy projection. For all its faults, Mudiji's 10+ years have provided the much-needed stability and policies somewhat aligned with national interests. By some freak event, if we get a UPA 3.0 and 4.0, it could easily reverse the gains. Plus the demography is changing at a scary pace and religions of peacefuls + lovelies will not rest until the nation is splintered. Demography is destiny!! So unless a staunchly nationalistic govt is in power until 2047, we can kiss all plans of being a suppa pawah goodbye!

Sometimes I wonder if having a singular idealogy ruling a nation for such a long time is advisable or not. Then I read about the corporatist style of government adopted by Portugal from mid 1930s all the way through 1970s and it did wonders for their tiny country. Please do read about it folks, for all it's faults and shortcomings, that idealogy worked well for over 40 years.

But to implement such an ideological government for such long periods of time we need a multitude of factors to align - most important being correct idealogy for the population, an educated population, a largely corruption free government machinery.

Now comes the big question - who is the person(s) who will be the architect of this idealogy, and mind you it has to have social and economical aspects in it (i will leave religion upto the more educated ones to decide if it should play a role in this idealogy). Modi is not the one, I haven't seen anything from him that can hint at an idealogy that his successors can carry on.
Manmohan (i think) had the potential to create one, but congress and politics never allowed him to florish (neither under PVN Rao, nor under his own premiership), he was too weak and didn't have support to draft and implement a nation wide, multi decade long policy. His achievements only laid a foundation for others to craft their own paths, not a path for an entire nation.
Who then can be our Antonio de Oliveira Salazar? Are we even on the path to creating an atmosphere and culture that will nurture such nation builders?
I highly doubt Our fractured political system will produce one.
Untill such an individual or group of like minded leaders and administrators come together, it will be very very hard for us to come out of this middle income trap we are headed towards.
Just look at the AQI warnings in Delhi, what are we even doing to address this? I haven't heard a single concrete plan to address the single biggest issue out National Capital faces EVERY year.
How are we going to fix the myriad issues that plague us if we are to match China let alone come to the western standards of living? The recent article i read about child malnutrition (BBC article, I know what you will say, but it still is relevant) doesnt give me much hopes tbh.

And then we have local leaders like dum dum Jagan (AP), Momta didi, Moolayum and others who care only for populist policies and no real development (other local leaders aren't all that great, I just can't recollect their names). Where is India headed with such fractured political landscape and uneducated population? If we don't find a solution for these problems it will be a pipe dream to match China.

 

[Blademaster]

Sometimes I wonder if having a singular idealogy ruling a nation for such a long time is advisable or not. Then I read about the corporatist style of government adopted by Portugal from mid 1930s all the way through 1970s and it did wonders for their tiny country. Please do read about it folks, for all it's faults and shortcomings, that idealogy worked well for over 40 years.

But to implement such an ideological government for such long periods of time we need a multitude of factors to align - most important being correct idealogy for the population, an educated population, a largely corruption free government machinery.

Now comes the big question - who is the person(s) who will be the architect of this idealogy, and mind you it has to have social and economical aspects in it (i will leave religion upto the more educated ones to decide if it should play a role in this idealogy). Modi is not the one, I haven't seen anything from him that can hint at an idealogy that his successors can carry on.
Manmohan (i think) had the potential to create one, but congress and politics never allowed him to florish (neither under PVN Rao, nor under his own premiership), he was too weak and didn't have support to draft and implement a nation wide, multi decade long policy. His achievements only laid a foundation for others to craft their own paths, not a path for an entire nation.
Who then can be our Antonio de Oliveira Salazar? Are we even on the path to creating an atmosphere and culture that will nurture such nation builders?
I highly doubt Our fractured political system will produce one.
Untill such an individual or group of like minded leaders and administrators come together, it will be very very hard for us to come out of this middle income trap we are headed towards.
Just look at the AQI warnings in Delhi, what are we even doing to address this? I haven't heard a single concrete plan to address the single biggest issue out National Capital faces EVERY year.
How are we going to fix the myriad issues that plague us if we are to match China let alone come to the western standards of living? The recent article i read about child malnutrition (BBC article, I know what you will say, but it still is relevant) doesnt give me much hopes tbh.

And then we have local leaders like dum dum Jagan (AP), Momta didi, Moolayum and others who care only for populist policies and no real development (other local leaders aren't all that great, I just can't recollect their names). Where is India headed with such fractured political landscape and uneducated population? If we don't find a solution for these problems it will be a pipe dream to match China.

Manmohan Singh did shit. He merely took credit for what others did. What he did with the liberalization is one of the biggest myths ever perpetuated on India.

 

[NerVik]

Manmohan Singh did shit. He merely took credit for what others did. What he did with the liberalization is one of the biggest myths ever perpetuated on India.

Who do you think was the reason behind our liberalization?

 

[shade2]

Sometimes I wonder if having a singular idealogy ruling a nation for such a long time is advisable or not.

Lehruvian "secularism" and "socialism" ruled the country for the past 60 years and still rules the institutions( Genroldom, Milaardiciary and Baboo[n]ocracy )

Maoist qaummunism ruled China for 40 years

Soviet qaummunism ruled the USSR for 80 years

As for your Salazar fangirling, any muscular, autocratic rule lasting 20 years or more without any 5th column behavior by judiciary military and bureaucracy with good intentions will get you those results.

You have the Sooth Korean military dictatorships, the Japanese Emperor assuming direct control in the 1800s, CCP ruled China since the 90s, Mahathir Muhmammad( yes, the SAME one ) ruling Magaysia for 20 years non-stop.

 

[Blademaster]

Who do you think was the reason behind our liberalization?

PVNR and others.

 

[NerVik]

Lehruvian "secularism" and "socialism" ruled the country for the past 60 years and still rules the institutions( Genroldom, Milaardiciary and Baboo[n]ocracy )

Maoist qaummunism ruled China for 40 years

Soviet qaummunism ruled the USSR for 80 years

As for your Salazar fangirling, any muscular, autocratic rule lasting 20 years or more without any 5th column behavior by judiciary military and bureaucracy with good intentions will get you those results.

You have the Sooth Korean military dictatorships, the Japanese Emperor assuming direct control in the 1800s, CCP ruled China since the 90s, Mahathir Muhmammad( yes, the SAME one ) ruling Magaysia for 20 years non-stop.

Not sure what is the point of this post. I am not saying there aren't any other examples other than that Portuguese one i mentioned, that's the one that came up to my mind. All the examples ypu cited have one element in common - unfractured political system. Anyway, I am not against having such an idealogy brought into our country, as long as it's the one that will foster the next phase of nation building.