Indian Economy

[Hari Sud]

Reflections on India

As I sit on the plane returning to Toronto, I’m using this time to reflect on my recent visit to India. To say that India is “fine and healthy” would be an oversimplification, perhaps even inaccurate. Here are my thoughts, categorised into political, economic, and international dimensions.

Political Landscape

1. Political Instability: India is experiencing noticeable political unrest in various states. Tamil Nadu, while economically strong, is showing cultural and linguistic assertiveness that some interpret as anti-national. In West Bengal, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee often aligns herself with Muslim interests, sometimes controversially labelling rioters as patriots. Maharashtra suffers from leadership instability, with Sharad Pawar allegedly leveraging internal divisions for personal gain. Punjab’s governance appears to have ceded authority to religious leaders, while Manipur remains quiet on the surface but harbours separatist sentiments reportedly influenced by external Christian organisations. Bihar remains a hotbed of political manoeuvring, with Lalu Prasad Yadav pushing for dynastic succession.
2. Kashmir: The situation in Kashmir continues to defy resolution. With Pakistan’s entrenched Islamic ideology and ongoing interference, a peaceful solution seems distant. Historically, conflict in the region tends to escalate roughly every two decades, and many believe another flashpoint may be looming.
3. Weak Federal Government: Prime Minister Modi leads a coalition reliant on support from regional parties like those in Bihar and Andhra Pradesh. This limits his ability to enforce a unified national agenda. Meanwhile, the Congress Party under Sonia and Rahul Gandhi is accused of supporting dissent and civil unrest. Modi appears cautious, perhaps aware of the limitations imposed by his government’s parliamentary arithmetic.
4. Muslim Political Mobilisation: Following the passage of the new Waqf Bill, Muslim communities are becoming more politically active, forming alliances to challenge the BJP. Mamata Banerjee has positioned herself as a leader willing to amplify their voice.
5. Hindu Consolidation: In response, the BJP is working diligently to consolidate the Hindu vote base, recognising the growing polarisation.

Economic Climate

1. Impact of U.S. Tariffs: The Trump administration’s tariffs have likely slowed India’s economic momentum. However, there is growing optimism in India that the U.S., wary of overreliance on China, may redirect investments and manufacturing operations to India—much like it did with China from 1995 to 2015.
2. Need for Private Sector Activation: India is eager to attract high-tech, labor-intensive industries. Yet, the private sector has been sluggish, largely due to entrenched complacency from the Congress era. The government is now offering incentives to reinvigorate domestic industrial participation—but progress remains limited.
3. Reforms: While some reforms have been proposed, none have been transformative. The country still awaits a breakthrough that could re-energize the business climate.

International Affairs

1. India-U.S. Relations: Modi’s February visit to Washington significantly strengthened bilateral ties. With India’s tariffs now among the lowest, U.S. officials are engaging with India on economic reforms. There is potential for a $500 billion trade relationship within five years—an opportunity India must not miss.
2. 10.China’s Posturing: Pressured by the U.S., China is signaling interest in improving ties with India. However, genuine rapprochement seems unlikely unless trade imbalances are addressed and aggressive posturing along the Himalayan border ceases.
3. Pakistan’s Instability: Pakistan continues to be a disruptive neighbor, entangled in jihadist ideologies that damage its economy and polity. Its military adventurism in Afghanistan and Balochistan, combined with reliance on inferior Chinese military hardware, compounds its problems.
4. 12.Bangladesh’s Shift: Encouraged by Pakistan, Bangladesh appears to be adopting more Islamist postures. There were even rumblings of a plan to block India’s vital Siliguri Corridor. However, an assertive warning from India about the strategic Chittagong port seems to have tempered such ambitions. Chittagong’s proximity to India and discontent among hill tribes near the border have created growing insecurity within Bangladesh.

Conclusion

India’s current instability stems from both internal political fragmentation and external pressures. The need for new federal elections is urgent—only a government with a strong mandate (a two-thirds majority) can effectively restore order and direction. At present, too many small parties with minimal parliamentary representation believe themselves to be kingmakers, perpetuating instability.

Cheers,


[Hari Sud]