Indian Economy

[Spitfire IX]

According to the 'headline' on the link below, Boeing 'HALTS production over China sanctions'.


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6iT8US2GW7k

I don't for one moment believe that Boeing has halted production but it does highlight that US companies with a global supply train - and exporting a good proportion of their production - could be forced to relocate manufacture outside of the US to countries without swingeing tariffs on component imports. It would be ironic if Boeing had to shut down production in the US to avoid measures that an ignoramus had imposed, believing they would encourage increased production in the US!

I see this as a possible, massive opportunity for India to get into the airliner production business through Boeing setting up an FAL for B737. If India were to offer the right incentives, it could be handed civil aviation business worth tens of billions USD annually.

Think about it. Boeing produces perhaps 460 B737 each year. If they sell at an average of 75 million USD each, that would give a sales value of 34+ billion USD annually.

At the moment what do all Indian civil aviation constructors combined turn over annually building civil airliners or their components? Are there any Indian companies that would be interested in going from a small turnover to a giant turnover as a matter of urgency (Boeing's urgency)?

 

[Migflug]

View: https://x.com/menakadoshi/status/1928418943103856666?t=iwMcBXjx1qY3oYHyNWiFfQ&s=19

 

[crazywithmath]

Major hit to numbers came from drop in oil exports.
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EIDB

Have you taken a closer look at govt expenditure nos?

Weak weak weak!

See, this is why I abuse this govt. They just cannnot/will not spend. And yet, there are capex simps who will continue to write essays justifying the kanjoosi of the incumbent. The same folks will continue with the usual fear mongering over 'muh freebies'.

Like I keep saying, the kanjoos govt gets a free pass because even their supporters are kanjoos.

Either way, bhosdapilling aside - pretty decent nos overall; despite a high base and a challenging global outlook.

 

[fire starter]

View: https://x.com/lakshmishaks/status/1928453110176829508?t=9XnncSjZ71GIA6BtYoOLbQ&s=19

 

[eastern_bhartiya]

Have you taken a closer look at govt expenditure nos?

Weak weak weak!

See, this is why I abuse this govt. They just cannnot/will not spend. And yet, there are capex simps who will continue to write essays justifying the kanjoosi of the incumbent. The same folks will continue with the usual fear mongering over 'muh freebies'.

Like I keep saying, the kanjoos govt gets a free pass because even their supporters are kanjoos.

Either way, bhosdapilling aside - pretty decent nos overall; despite a high base and a challenging global outlook.

One way to look at this is, govt is thinking pvt sector is gonna start investing anyday now, which is why they are muted on caped from their part, this is same thing as them taking 2.5 years to approve amca

 

[ezsasa]

View: https://x.com/menakadoshi/status/1928418943103856666?t=iwMcBXjx1qY3oYHyNWiFfQ&s=19

this write up would make a lot more sense in the future, if it was mentioned that general elections were going on apr-jun quarter. during elections, project files in ministries do not move because of code of conduct rules, when files do not move, money doesn't get disbursed.

 

[shuturmurg]

One way to look at this is, govt is thinking pvt sector is gonna start investing anyday now, which is why they are muted on caped from their part, this is same thing as them taking 2.5 years to approve amca

Indian private sector is neither spending on R&D, nor capex and are not even increasing the salary. They are just using the increased profit to do stock buybacks. This is what happened in US over last decade as well. China has been able to regulate this much better.

Our CEA also hinted at something similar :


View: https://x.com/CNBCTV18Live/status/1927994997451653223

 

[Nutcracker]

Indian private sector is neither spending on R&D, nor capex and are not even increasing the salary. They are just using the increased profit to do stock buybacks. This is what happened in US over last decade as well. China has been able to regulate this much better.

Our CEA also hinted at something similar :


View: https://x.com/CNBCTV18Live/status/1927994997451653223

Additionally the salaries of CEO, CFO, and top management have also been disproportionately pumped high.

 

[sauntheninja]

Indian private sector is neither spending on R&D, nor capex and are not even increasing the salary. They are just using the increased profit to do stock buybacks. This is what happened in US over last decade as well. China has been able to regulate this much better.

Our CEA also hinted at something similar :


View: https://x.com/CNBCTV18Live/status/1927994997451653223

At per capita incomes of $2500 we are already seeing signs of slowdown. Looks like we will start seeing sub 5% growth rates after 2030 and this government will convince us that is as per expectations

 

[crazywithmath]

At per capita incomes of $2500 we are already seeing signs of slowdown. Looks like we will start seeing sub 5% growth rates after 2030 and this government will convince us that is as per expectations

There is no slowdown. The real growth of 6.5% is on top of a very high base of 9%+ in the previous FY.

Next level bhosdapilling....

I really hope more folks would call out the govt for their kanjoosi instead of engaging in sensationized crap like this. The incumbent does not receive enough hate for their kanjoosi.

 

[haldilal]

 

[Tumba]

There is no slowdown. The real growth of 6.5% is on top of a very high base of 9%+ in the previous FY.

Next level bhosdapilling....

I really hope more folks would call out the govt for their kanjoosi instead of engaging in sensationized crap like this. The incumbent does not receive enough hate for their kanjoosi.

Most of the people dont understand the quarterly GDP% what does that means what is Real GDP% and what is Nominal one.

You rightly pointed out last years Q4 real GDP% was almost 9%+ so achieving 7.4% on top of same shows the growth is on top-gear also keep in mind some of the GDP data for last quarter will keep on coming and revised figures will certainly will be in range of 7.5-8%

 

[Cheepek]

View: https://x.com/lakshmishaks/status/1929058663488008420?t=t4v6qQbZqYmxeurG8j9I9w&s=19

 

[vin pahadi (kumauni)]

disaster create risk of economic losses nd people life....india is consider third most disaster risky country in world risk index 2024.

 

[concard]

@Azaad
I saw you mention me on a Chinese economy thread. It was very interesting how CCP screws their own citizens in order to achieve bigger goals. At the end of the day they want all the power wrested with CCP. Their focus is completely on dominating industries. Increasing pensions and taking care of their elderly doesn't seem to be the priorities.

Obviously, we can't employ that tactic here without our banking system collapsing. However, we need to come up with a template to formalize real estate sector where bulk of the black money is in India. We need to differentiate between land lords and people who have no land assets. We need to link PAN and Aadhar to each land asset in India. If a land lord is deriving revenue from their land assets, it should directly come into their bank accounts instead of them taking cash which is the norm to avoid taxes. And if we can link each electricity meter to a land lord who is renting many houses then more tax can be collected. We need to break the chain of families who are feasting on inheritance for generations. I believe GoI can raise $100 billion or 8-9 lakh crore from this endeavor. This can cover a lot of our deficit.

GoI needs to come up with more ways of raising revenue and formalizing the economy. Until now, we are barely scratching the surface. Our expenditure is touching 50 Lakh crore whereas our revenues are just 30-35 Lakh crore leaving a big hole of 15 Lakh crore in the budget.

 

[Simon Riley]

At per capita incomes of $2500 we are already seeing signs of slowdown. Looks like we will start seeing sub 5% growth rates after 2030 and this government will convince us that is as per expectations

You think 7.4% at a time when the global economic conditions are terrible is slowing down of growth? Every economy has its problem the only thing is it should not be structural to impact growth in long term, CEA identifying problems is a good thing which means steps will be taken to rectify it. We are not slowing down for a good amount of time, relax.

 

[Simon Riley]

Won't our per capita be around 2900 , since we have overtaked japan?

 

[Rai89]

According to the 'headline' on the link below, Boeing 'HALTS production over China sanctions'.


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6iT8US2GW7k

I don't for one moment believe that Boeing has halted production but it does highlight that US companies with a global supply train - and exporting a good proportion of their production - could be forced to relocate manufacture outside of the US to countries without swingeing tariffs on component imports. It would be ironic if Boeing had to shut down production in the US to avoid measures that an ignoramus had imposed, believing they would encourage increased production in the US!

I see this as a possible, massive opportunity for India to get into the airliner production business through Boeing setting up an FAL for B737. If India were to offer the right incentives, it could be handed civil aviation business worth tens of billions USD annually.

Think about it. Boeing produces perhaps 460 B737 each year. If they sell at an average of 75 million USD each, that would give a sales value of 34+ billion USD annually.

At the moment what do all Indian civil aviation constructors combined turn over annually building civil airliners or their components? Are there any Indian companies that would be interested in going from a small turnover to a giant turnover as a matter of urgency (Boeing's urgency)?

This is a good idea but I doubt the current Trump administration would allow it. Even China couldn't get a FAL from Boeing when they had good relations with the US.