Indian Economy

[Cheepek]

yes true, and nothing is without risks and tradeoff, what he calls "risk capital" shows up in charts like these

View attachment 20305

this excess cash sloshing around in their system manifests itself in may forms like housing bubble, inflation, higher cost of living etc.

the investors are not going keep their losses in their books, whatever the losses they sustained they will pawn it off on to the next successful venture, which ends up making the product costly or even annoying like youtube ads, in-app purchases.

Wonders of $$$ hegemony

 

[ezsasa]

Wonders of $$$ hegemony

India too had it's version, we called it NPA crisis, they call it "risk capital".

 

[Cheepek]

Because every time people post that we have overtaken this and that country, they have to be reminded that looking at the size of the GDP is the incorrect way of assessing the economy. India will always have a relatively larger economy due to its massive population

What we should look at is the qualitative aspect of it. What is the point of India overtaking japan when the latter is an exporter of cutting edge robots whereas India is an importer of things as basic as mild steel ?

The "qualitative aspect" is directly proportional to GDP, and it will remain the same for some time to come. It's not the perfect metric, but it's a great metric. Probably better than most others.

How is importing raw material bad in any way, even Japan imports steel

 

[Cheepek]

India too had it's version, we called it NPA crisis, they call it "risk capital".

True, but sadly no ₹ hegemony

 

[ezsasa]

Because every time people post that we have overtaken this and that country, they have to be reminded that looking at the size of the GDP is the incorrect way of assessing the economy. India will always have a relatively larger economy due to its massive population

What we should look at is the qualitative aspect of it. What is the point of India overtaking japan when the latter is an exporter of cutting edge robots whereas India is an importer of things as basic as mild steel ?

because countries play to their strengths, not weaknesses.

Japan's robot story is their govt policy driven, their govt decided to promote robots in their SME a few decades ago. now it's market value is about 3 billion $.
one of the latest Indian govt's policy driven market is Digital public infrastructure, fintech market value alone is worth 111 billion $ at this point in time.

same reason we get cheap internet, cheap electricity etc. providing products and services at a billion customers scale is India's USP.

coming back to my post, relax a bit. take a new year resolution that you will try to see India for what it is before you start evaluating on what you want it to be.

 

[sameer]

yes true, and nothing is without risks and tradeoff, what he calls "risk capital" shows up in charts like these

View attachment 20305

this excess cash sloshing around in their system manifests itself in may forms like housing bubble, inflation, higher cost of living etc.

the investors are not going keep their losses in their books, whatever the losses they sustained they will pawn it off on to the next successful venture, which ends up making the product costly or even annoying like youtube ads, in-app purchases.

It's kinda insane how much debt they are racking up. It's at $36.1T now, used to be $26T in 2020, so in 4 years they added debt worth almost $10T or like 3 times of India's GDP.

Unlimited money printing with low inflation and the currency instead of weakening goes up. Wonder how long its really sustainable.

 

[ezsasa]

It's kinda insane how much debt they are racking up. It's at $36.1T now, used to be $26T in 2020, so in 4 years they added debt worth almost $10T or like 3 times of India's GDP.

Unlimited money printing with low inflation and the currency instead of weakening goes up. Wonder how long its really sustainable.

is it the case that once digital economy becomes prominent, valuations become untethered from realistic value?

during dotcom boom, simple websites were were bought for crazy prices in U.S. that cycle hasn't ended yet. to make the value proposition stronger, adrevenue was connected to websites.

 

[sauntheninja]

yes true, and nothing is without risks and tradeoff, what he calls "risk capital" shows up in charts like these

View attachment 20305

this excess cash sloshing around in their system manifests itself in may forms like housing bubble, inflation, higher cost of living etc.

the investors are not going keep their losses in their books, whatever the losses they sustained they will pawn it off on to the next successful venture, which ends up making the product costly or even annoying like youtube ads, in-app purchases.

At this point though the Chinese government also threw a ton of capital around to grow the economy. Yes they are facing a debt crisis, housing crisis now but it does seem a quick fire way to supercharge your economy. Banks here being so risk averse and only lending to big industrialists means all these big industrialists have to do is rent seeking because they know they are too big to get disrupted by these startups specially outside the mobile apps spaces where the startups were able to build products and gain a huge audience which the big companies are desperate to claw back market share.

 

[ezsasa]

At this point though the Chinese government also threw a ton of capital around to grow the economy. Yes they are facing a debt crisis, housing crisis now but it does seem a quick fire way to supercharge your economy. Banks here being so risk averse and only lending to big industrialists means all these big industrialists have to do is rent seeking because they know they are too big to get disrupted by these startups specially outside the mobile apps spaces where the startups were able to build products and gain a huge audience which the big companies are desperate to claw back market share.

Banks are not designed to fund startups, they don't have the competence to evaluate a startup.

"Risk capital" that taklu is talking about does not come directly from banks either, that's where VC come into the picture.

to say, Indian startups are not getting funding is an understatement. as far as the monies not going enough outside of digital segment, yes that's yet to be sorted out.

Funding to Indian startups surge by over 53 % in first eight months of 2024: GlobalData

Read more at:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...ofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

Startup Nation: India

India has emerged as one of the most vibrant startup ecosystems globally, earning its place as the 3

pib.gov.in

as far as big industrialists go, they are not sitting idle either. they too are solving legacy issues which were neglected for a long time i.e industrial capacity, infra and energy. that's where big chunk of money is going so far. 1.4 trillion $ of investments is going into public infra alone.

what we get in return is things like these..


View: https://youtu.be/_xLd99fJ0_4

Dhubri Phulbari bridge update | Longest Bridge of India | Papa Construction​

View: https://youtu.be/W0QmWNGErzs

Year End Review 2024 of Ministry of New & Renewable Energy

Union Ministry of New & Renewable Energy (MNRE) continued its remarkable journey toward transforming

pib.gov.in

 

[ezsasa]

Banks are not designed to fund startups, they don't have the competence to evaluate a startup.

"Risk capital" that taklu is talking about does not come directly from banks either, that's where VC come into the picture.

to say, Indian startups are not getting funding is an understatement. as far as the monies not going enough outside of digital segment, yes that's yet to be sorted out.

Funding to Indian startups surge by over 53 % in first eight months of 2024: GlobalData

Read more at:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...ofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

Startup Nation: India

India has emerged as one of the most vibrant startup ecosystems globally, earning its place as the 3

pib.gov.in

as far as big industrialists go, they are not sitting idle either. they too are solving legacy issues which were neglected for a long time i.e industrial capacity, infra and energy. that's where big chunk of money is going so far. 1.4 trillion $ of investments in going into public infra alone.

what we get in return is things like these..


View: https://youtu.be/_xLd99fJ0_4

Dhubri Phulbari bridge update | Longest Bridge of India | Papa Construction​

View: https://youtu.be/W0QmWNGErzs

if trump opens floodgates for murican infra upgrade spending, don't be surprised if all this VC/risk capital talk does down globally.

 

[sauntheninja]

Seems like the consumption problem is persisting and will likely affect this quarter's growth too

GST collection growth slows in December show

India's GST collections rose 7.3% to `1.77 lakh crore in December compared to the previous year. This growth slowed from an 8.5% increase in November. The post-festive season slump and consumption slowdown are factors. Experts expect a pickup in the March quarter. The government's budget may...

economictimes.indiatimes.com

Government on the other hand are adamant that the Q2 results were a blip but looks like Q3 growth will be disappointing as well

 

[crazywithmath]

Government on the other hand are adamant that the Q2 results were a blip but looks like Q3 growth will be disappointing as well

Too early to predict anything like that. Direct taxes, for eg, are through the roofs.

 

[ezsasa]

has zerodha's analysis been useful in the past?
=====

Can India’s Economy Handle the Pressure?​

Can India’s Economy Handle the Pressure?

Our goal with The Daily Brief is to simplify the biggest stories in the Indian markets and help you understand what they mean.

thedailybrief.zerodha.com

 

[Ultraman]

@Nutcracker was asking this long time back

credit card and debit card usage is also been tracked now

if they manage to widen tax base this way , hopefully gov will reduce direct or indirect tax


View: https://twitter.com/tarunmallappa/status/1874092166580187598

 

[FalconSlayers]

@Nutcracker was asking this long time back

credit card and debit card usage is also been tracked now

if they manage to widen tax base this way , hopefully gov will reduce direct or indirect tax


View: https://twitter.com/tarunmallappa/status/1874092166580187598

Question is:

1. Will it end up widening tax base assuming the vendors comply.
2. Or it will end up increasing cash usage like it was pre-UPI era.

 

[Anants]

Question is:

1. Will it end up widening tax base assuming the vendors comply.
2. Or it will end up increasing cash usage like it was pre-UPI era.

latter onlee jee

 

[crazywithmath]

Question is:

1. Will it end up widening tax base assuming the vendors comply.
2. Or it will end up increasing cash usage like it was pre-UPI era.

latter onlee jee

This gormint has widened the tax net significantly. I do not see cash usage going up because GoI chasing after HNI tax evaders has not significantly altered overall cash usage.

Honestly, we should be more worried about them sitting over a giant pile of cash instead. All this tax buoyancy and yet, they are still dragging their feet and just will not spend.

has zerodha's analysis been useful in the past?
=====

Can India’s Economy Handle the Pressure?​

Can India’s Economy Handle the Pressure?

Our goal with The Daily Brief is to simplify the biggest stories in the Indian markets and help you understand what they mean.

thedailybrief.zerodha.com

Good read on the green steel thingy.

 

[notaname]

Question is:

1. Will it end up widening tax base assuming the vendors comply.
2. Or it will end up increasing cash usage like it was pre-UPI era.

latter onlee jee

Already started, in Indore Rajwada market many shops have decided they will only accept cash, UPI will not be accepted.
(Unofficial number is more than reported for shops.)

And they are giving argument that it is due to cyber fraud.

Rajwada garment retailers push back on digital payments amid cyber fraud concerns | Indore News - Times of India

Indore: More than a dozen readymade garment shops in Indore's traditional Rajwada market have joined a campaign to stop accepting digital payments ami.

timesofindia.indiatimes.com

 

[Ultraman]

Already started, in Indore Rajwada market many shops have decided they will only accept cash, UPI will not be accepted.
(Unofficial number is more than reported for shops.)

And they are giving argument that it is due to cyber fraud.

Rajwada garment retailers push back on digital payments amid cyber fraud concerns | Indore News - Times of India

Indore: More than a dozen readymade garment shops in Indore's traditional Rajwada market have joined a campaign to stop accepting digital payments ami.

timesofindia.indiatimes.com

thats a real issue . people who do cyber fraud , the account they put money in , if they then use upi to give money from that account to shop keeper . both accounts + any account shop keeper himself transfered money to will be frozen .

happened to a person i know . there is no facility for police to just freeze some fixed amount . instead they will just freeze credited account and any account connected to it .

 

[Aaj Ka Hero]

It's kinda insane how much debt they are racking up. It's at $36.1T now, used to be $26T in 2020, so in 4 years they added debt worth almost $10T or like 3 times of India's GDP.

Unlimited money printing with low inflation and the currency instead of weakening goes up. Wonder how long its really sustainable.

It will be fully sustainable, let me tell you what they, the USA government will tell to their loan sharks, They will point that the USA government is fully investing or grabbing the sure future growth resources.

That's why you see them always near oil fields and vying for russia, canada, panama etc. territory.

Why? so that next loan payment can keep coming in the hope that USA get those oil fields, etc.

Blackrock was given half of ukraine, bread basket of Europe, the land is now with the yankees, loan sharks partly satisfied.

Destroy there capture of important resources worldwide, USA economy collapse.