From China's perspective, if bringing 1.4B people to live in industrilized and post-industrilized society, we need to keep per reserve (steel inside buildings, vechiles, ships, ports, airport, bridge, roads etc..) at same level of USA, EU, JP, S.K:
Comparison among different countries
The United States: The steel stock reached a stable level of 2 billion tons, with an average of 8.8 tons per capita.
The United Kingdom: The steel stock stabilized at 400 million tons, with an average of 7.6 tons per capita.
Japan: The steel stock tended to stabilize at 1.5 billion tons, with an average of approximately 10.5 tons per capita.
South Korea: The average steel stock per capita reached 9.5 tons upon completing industrialization.
The situation in China:
As of 2022, China's social steel stock was approximately 12 billion tons, with an average of 8.3 tons per capita. In 2023, China's social steel stock was approximately 12.8 billion tons, with an average of 8.9 tons per capita. It is predicted that by 2030, China's steel stock will reach 13.2 billion tons.
By this definition, one Billion steel production is a OK level for the goal, if you really check the export data, still 90% of consumptions are domestic, and for any facotry, if you plan a 1B tons production, you need set a buffer on 1.1 or 1.2 B ton capability, the rest of 10% and 20% can be exported, of couse it's cheap due to massive production volume.
PS. Indian members like the narratives created by western media, like "debt trap", "over capacity"; But few people tried to understand the reality behind it, please do more research on each topic. When India try to enter the mid income nation, you should have the same level of per reserve of steel.
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