Why is India Upset About Chinese Dams on the Brahmaputra River?
India has valid concerns over China’s plans to build massive dams on the Brahmaputra River. These include the potential disruption of the river’s natural flow, the destruction of its delicate ecosystem, and the broader geopolitical implications. After retreating from contested areas in Ladakh—where they faced a 50,000-strong, well-equipped Indian Army in mountainous terrain—the Chinese now appear to be picking a new fight with India for the river water.
The new controversy centers on China’s ambitious proposal to dam the Brahmaputra (known as the Tsangpo in Tibet) at the “great bend,” where the river plunges 7,000 feet into the deepest gorge in the world. This project aims to generate an unprecedented amount of electricity, but the Chinese claims rest on questionable assumptions.
The Brahmaputra in the Indian plains carries an average discharge of 22,000 m3/s, dropping to 4,000–6,000 m3/s during the driest periods. In contrast, the Tsangpo in Tibet carries just 3,500 cubic meters per second in Tibet. While the steep drop at the bend provides potential for hydropower, the region’s seismic instability poses a significant risk. The steep fall is guessed to be 50 to 200 feet per mile in small but multiple falls creating a tremendous force in the water. That force is what salivating the Chinese, although it has been inadequately studied and explored.
Moreover, the area is remote and largely unexplored. The first human expeditions—Westerners, not Chinese—reached parts of this region only as recently as 2001 and 2012. Also, digging a 40-kilometer tunnel to channel water to turbines in such terrain is fraught with uncertainty. Additionally, climate change is already reducing snowmelt feeding Himalayan rivers, which could render the $160 billion investment unsustainable. If the water flow declines, this project could join the ranks of China’s other failing ventures, such as its troubled Belt and Road Initiative.
China’s overconfidence in its engineering prowess, coupled with insufficient consultation with area experts, underscores the risks of this endeavor. While the project may seem like a technological showcase, it is more likely to end in failure, with significant consequences for the region. India, rightfully, sees this as a potential ecological and geopolitical disaster in the making.
Brahmaputra in India and Chinese misadventure
The Brahmaputra enters India’s Arunachal Pradesh as the Siang River. It is then joined by the Dibang, Lohit, and several smaller rivers, forming the mighty Brahmaputra with a discharge exceeding 45,000 m3/s during the rainy season. From there, it flows south into Bangladesh, where it is called the Jamuna. While the river often brings devastating floods during the rainy season, it also provides sustenance to millions in Assam and Bangladesh.
The real danger of China’s dam-building lies in the potential for the controlled or uncontrolled release of massive amounts of water from the proposed dam. This could occur during emergencies or even as an act of deliberate mischief, both of which are serious possibilities. Recognizing this, India must take proactive measures, as protests and diplomatic efforts are unlikely to deter China.
To safeguard against such threats, India is planning to construct a large dam and catchment lake along the Tsangpo/Siang River in Arunachal Pradesh. This project, estimated to cost $4–6 billion, will not only help mitigate the risk of sudden water releases but also generate significant hydroelectric power as an added benefit.
India is taking decisive steps to prepare for any potential Chinese misadventure, ensuring both its security and energy needs are met effectively
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