With a stranglehold on Naxals in Odisha, Chhattisgarh and with NDA governments in these states as well as Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra, the so called 'Red Corridor' has been broken.
This has allowed for :
- More cooperation between central and state agencies
- Grassroots level targeted delivery of welfare schemes
- Better connect with tribals
- FOBs/camps (48 hours to establish) near the vicinity of police stations
- Better bush bashing and ground level penetration
- Drone and satellite imagery matching with human intelligence
Outliers
Anyone looking at the map can figure out that Naxals can't go to :
- Except Mizoram, all states are under NDA. Manipur is under President's Rule (center). No direct link to NE insurgents or Myanmar's Chin rebel groups.
- Per capita income and urbanization is lower however terrain is hostile and supply chains are difficult to maintain. People have different features and tribal militant groups are hostile to outsiders.
- Indian military formations are heavily concentrated at the border regions post 2020 standoff with China and these states have a military/nationalist bent in their farmsteads.
- Per capita income and urbanization is moderate however these states have a much higher Hindu nationalist bent which is anathema to atheist Maoist ideology.
- Except Kerala where ideological clashes (Marxist vs Maoist) belie any cooperation, rest of the states despite terrain have much better policing and can thus resist naxalism better (Grey Hounds).
- Per capita income and urbanization is highest and these states are the core of all technical institutions (DRDO, HAL, BARC, ADA, etc) which won't allow for any Pol Pot style Maoist ideology.
Threats
This means that Maoists can only move to 2 (maybe three states depending on Assembly Elections).
- Mamata kicked out Maoists in 2011 from Jangalmahal and will readily help central forces crush any upstart Maoists fleeing from Chhattisgarh to safeguard her hold of power.
- If NDA comes to power in West Bengal, situation will go from bad to worse for any Maoists.
- CPM will have ideological clashes (Marxist vs Maoist) and will crush any Maoists with fervor.
- NDA is likely to win in October-November 2025 and in any government, JDU will probably be the kingmaker or the main partner.
- For the same reasons as Mamata, Nitish will support the central government, whether in alliance or opposition to drive out Naxals .
- Maoists fleeing from Chhattisgarh could attempt to regroup in Jharkhand which is under JMM rule.
- Tribal identities, heavy forestation and terrain are opportunities for the Naxals.
- Active presence of Naxals in interior regions. Naxals have a violent history of operating in this state.
- Lack of cooperation from state government hampering operations.