Will India Ever Fight a Two-Front War?
A full-scale two-front war is unlikely, as Pakistan and China rarely act in coordinated military alliance. However, a limited two-front conflict could emerge if Pakistan initiates hostilities—as it did during Operation Sindoor—and China steps in to support its ally.
In 1971, Nixon encouraged China to open a front in the north to relieve pressure on Pakistan. The Chinese began moving forces toward at NathuLa, but the war ended before they could act. A similar possibility exists today, though it’s remote. China is preoccupied in the South and East China Seas—with Taiwan, Japan, the Philippines, and the U.S.—and they have limited appetite for Himalayan conflict.
If China does move against India, Arunachal Pradesh would be the likely focus—not via the 1962 route but via Chumbi Valley and block Siliguri corridor . Today, India is better prepared with roads, tunnels, and 50,000 troops. Also, Ladakh is a non-starter. Chinese have nothing more to capture. They could loose big if India recaptures Kailash Heights and block their ingress completely. Truthfully, Chinese thrust toward the Siliguri Corridor would also be suicidal. Indian forces dominate the high ground above Chumbi Valley, giving them a decisive advantage. A Chinese assault here would be their Waterloo. Hence there is nothing left for the Chinese to fight and get away. India is in superior position.
Chinese missiles and rocket force advantage has been neutralized progress in India missilery and failure of Chinese hardware in the Operation Sindoor.
Let us assume that during any Himalayan conflict, Pakistan might exploit the distraction by attacking through Rajasthan—repeating the 1971 route via Longewala toward Jodhpur. But this plan is flawed. India could counterattack from Tanot toward Rahim Yar Khan, severing Pakistan’s rail and road links. Such a move would split Pakistan in two—a strategic disaster for Pakistan, it cannot afford.
Similarly, any Pakistani attempt to cut off Kashmir via the northern axis, as in 1965 and 1971 via Jammu, is doomed to fail again. The two-front war, if it occurs, would likely be short—two weeks at most—with high costs and inconclusive outcomes. China would seek face-saving disengagement, citing mission success whether success or not, while Pakistan would beg for ceasefire as Indian forces reach Rahim Yar Khan.
In the Indian Ocean, India holds the advantage. China depends on oil and trade flowing through these waters. No matter how many submarines or destroyers China sends 3,000 km away, they’ll be cornered and sunk.
As for nuclear weapons, Pakistan’s command and control is already under U.S. oversight, limiting its independent use.
Hence two front war will be a failure for both China & Pakistan.