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There's no miscalculation or if there's any it's at your end . I think @ezsasa did a stellar job some time back detailing this particular government's approach to dealing with terrorist attacks emanating from Paxtan right since 2014 .There are three possible responses Modi & Co. can pursue in the event of a terrorist attack:
1. They can bomb some irrelevant or symbolic structures and claim victory-> the kind of hollow theatrics that only fool the gullible jaahils, not a politically aware Indian public.
2. They can target terrorist training camps-> a tactic that might offer short-term optics, but is strategically futile. These camps are easily reconstituted, fueled by an endless supply of jihadis, and it merely becomes a waiting game until the next attack.
3. They can strike at core Pakistani military assets->the actual puppeteers behind cross-border terrorism. This approach directly raises the cost for Rawalpindi, forcing the Pakistani military to think twice before enabling further attacks. Only this third option creates real deterrence.
Modi & Co. made a fundamental miscalculation- they THOUGHT they could achieve the fruits of Response-3 with Response-2 which is obviously false.
It went from ignoring these attacks in the larger interests of peace to offering joint investigations after Pathankot to shallow surgical strikes across the LoC after Uri to air strikes on terorist infrastructure in PoJ&K & KPK ( 4 sites were targeted with only what happened in Balakot dominating our thoughts till date whereas the others are forgotten ) which is in mainland Paxtan to whatever we've witnessed in Operation Sindoor.
Every such act by Paxtan has seen incremental escalation. What most people haven't noticed here or realised is while every Tom Dick & Harry in Paxtan was threatening usage of NW at the drop of the hat earlier , this government has with every retaliatory action been probing Paxtani red lines repeatedly to the point where on Operation Sindoor being " suspended temporarily " Modi himself laid down the ground rules for the next round by declaring Fauji Foundation would be targeted in future for any terorist attack on India.
Hence if you were to carefully analyse the entire set of our responses since 2014 with the benefit of this knowledge you'd be able to trace an arc to where we've reached with Modi's final declaration of targeting Fauji Foundation themselves in future being the apogee .
Now whether you agree with this administration's policies in this matter is another topic of discussion altogether but they've exhibited remarkable consistency throughout , erring on the side of caution , navigating this like a thorough professional , for Paxtan & its response is only one part of the equation here whereas there are a whole lot of other interested actors & factors which go in to such calculations.