I feel judging by China's behavior. We should expect Chinese aggression in next 1 year.
Here's my reason.
Chinese aggression I believe in Arunachal Pradesh in mid-2026 is highly likely.
1. Historical Pattern of PLA Opportunism Post-India-Pak Tensions
- Post-Uri (2016) surgical strikes → China ramped border infrastructure but stayed cautious.
- China did Doklam in 2017.
- Post-Pulwama/Balakot (2019)→ Within a year:
- 2020 PLA summer exercises in Tibet
- April–June: Pangong Tso standoff, Galwan clash, Naku La incursions
Inference: This is the main point is PLA views Indo-Pak crises as windows to:
- Distract Indian military attention,
- Test India’s strategic overstretch,
- Exploit political fog and timing to create faits accomplis on LAC.
2. Why May–July 2026 Is the Prime Window
- India’s forces are still redeploying or recovering from high-intensity op tempo post-airstrikes.
- Monsoon begins by mid-June — hampering India’s rapid reinforcement in NE & Ladakh.
- U.S. may be distracted mid term election, Tariff wars, and Trumps honeymoon period ending ripple effects, and with China reasserting in Taiwan theatre or SCS.
- CCP likely to manufacture a “border provocation” narrative around India’s infra activity or air patrols.
3. What Would Be China’s Logic Behind It
- Strategic Punishment:
Signal to India not to go “too far” into hard power assertion, especially with growing U.S./Quad ties.
- Preempt Indian Posture Shift:
India’s post-strike high might lead to doctrinal assertiveness at the border. PLA may try to dent that shift early.
- Create New Tactical Realities:
Another Galwan-style shift: permanent military positioning in new grey zones.
4. What to Watch For Now (Indicators from May–Dec 2025)
- PLA’s Tibet exercises expanding into new sectors (especially Tawang, Barahoti, Walong).
- Infrastructure buildup disproportionate to “defensive” needs.
- Chinese state media suddenly spotlighting Arunachal or “violations” by India.
- CCP aligning narratives of “two-front threat” = India + Taiwan — justifying LAC action.
- Chinese sabre rattling rising in tempo in upcoming months.
Bottom Line
Expect Chinese military-political coercion between May–July 2026, aimed at:
- Reasserting dominance post-India’s strike into Pakistan,
- Cauterizing India’s confidence surge,
- Taking advantage of India’s temporary force realignment,
- And shifting LAC dynamics subtly in China’s favor.
India should preempt by:
- Fortifying vulnerable sectors (Arunachal, Barahoti),
- Keeping a cold-start type posture ready for LAC now,
- Strengthening ISR across eastern and central sectors.
It always preceeds by some BS road construction excuse that China cooks up when it wants to transgress into our borders.
So Chinese aggression isn't gonna happen now. It's gonna happen in one year and we cannot just say we were not ready or we didn't know etc etc. We must pre empt any moves to ambush our soldiers. The thaw right now that India-China relations is experiencing is nothing but strategic deception and misdirection. Chinese are sharpening their knives while shaking our hands.
The disengagement at LAC is not de escalation. PLA is gonna re engage somewhere else (possibly Arunachal Pradesh) in 1 years time and this time it will be higher up the notch than Galwan. They were already probing in 2022.
I feel we have one year to be ready for it.