Operation Sindoor

Oki so now coming to own material loses there are contested claims of 3 material loses on our side.

1. Mig 29 in pampore (clear wreckage)
2. Mirage 2000 in akhnoor (only droptank)
3. Rafale in bathinda (clear wreckage)
This have been proven false and fake. I can only see drop tank.

Stop peddling Paki propganda. We believe once IAF declare it.
 
So here's my rational analysis of what transpired in yesterday Op Sindoor..after studying both indian nd Paxtan side of story..herein i will try to comprehensively answer all the queries nd solve claims nd counter claims nd give my reasoning for the same.

I will come to contested claims of loses Latter so let's analyze air strike first nd it's objectives..how IAF meticulously nd carefully planned an attack of this magnitude which many here or in defense circle were apprehensive of.

First nd foremost we have to give prime importance to objectives rather than semantics nd rhetorics.. then only we can analyse the truth rationaly.

So the clear objective of IAF was to struck assigned non military targets (9 terrorist camps across pak heartland) with minimum own loses.

Nd the objective of PAF was to deter IAF from achieving it's objective i.e denying bombing of it's territory nd inflict max attrition to strike package (75-80 IAF aircrafts)

NOW we hv clear answer who achieved it's objectives successfully.

Paxtan claims nearly 75-80 IAF aircrafts supported with loitering munitions (for strike nd BDA) participated in this attack now compare this with balakot strike where only dozens of mirage participate where only 5-6 crossed nd bombed paxtan.. this shows the magnitude nd humongous level of strike package.

Now did all 75-80 aircrafts attacked paxtan? Nope..

instead it was a brilliant nd judiciously crafted plan where multiple fighter sweeps were made at multiple locations.. there are reports of same aircrafts making multiple sweeps before actually attacking to evade threat of incoming SAMs nd BVRAAMs before releasing there PGMs.

From starting IAF knew it would be really onerous to achieve a strike of this ginormous magnitude with zero loses without doing any SEAD nd DEAD keeping in mind threat faced by deadly long range ADS (HQ9B- 260km). Thus in theory it was a suicide mission nd i feared worst while kudos to IAF.. they achieved their objectives with minimum own loses (material).

NOW all those who scorn off value of tactical nd strategic ADS need to study RUSSIAN-UKRAINE war where russian airforce has absolute domination over Ukrainian airforce with 10:1 ratio before the war. They had more modern nd sophisticated air vectors to absolutely annihilate ukraine nd give victory to russia on a plate as many defence analyst nd war watchers were predicting at the start of russian invasion.. however how the much vouched nd superior russian airforce failed?? Ring any bells??

Because of ukraine employing AIR DENIAL with ADS (S300 nd patriot).. read the below links that substantiate my claims about danger of long range ADS nd Era of AIR DENIAL.

www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2023/september/air-denial-lessons-ukraine

www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/air-denial-the-dangerous-illusion-of-decisive-air-superiority

Since the start of russian Ukraine war think tanks nd osints hv credited min 80-100 russian fighter aircrafts to ADS.. Ukrainian claims are even higher going north of 300 loses to russian airforce (far fetched). If u include other fixed wings aircrafts nd heptors than loses will be even more.


Oki so now coming to own material loses there are contested claims of 3 material loses on our side.

1. Mig 29 in pampore (clear wreckage)
2. Mirage 2000 in akhnoor (only droptank)
3. Rafale in bathinda (clear wreckage)

Pakis hv claimed 5-6 but only 3 or albiet 2 are substantiated with proofs in ground. Mind u in this age of social media no loses can be hidden so we can safely assume all documanted (atleast by proofs in crash site) are true.

First of all stop believing Rafale is some magic bullet nd will somehow magically survive against deadly long range ADS..afterall it's not a stealth aircraft rather it's a 4.5 gen aircraft nd can be tracked nd targeted by SAMs.. i hv said this before in MMRCA thread where many were jumping saying that only rafale will give them parity against long range PAF ADS nd it's imminent purchase of 5th gen fighters.

It's an exceptional aircraft with excellent electronic stealth (wrt to Spectra).. however no electronic stealth equipped 4.5 gen fighter can ever replace a true 5th gen fighter with stealth shaping.. nd this is true for all 4.5 gen aircrafts be it euro fighter, gripen, USAF F teens or Chinese 4.5 gen fighters.. all are vulnerable to latest nd lethal long range ADS equipped with multiple seekers (Active, SARH & PHH) & targeting AESA RADARs that are resistant to jamming by employing LPI, FHSS nd LORO mode.

PAF employed long range (260km) HQ9B SAMs with firing multiple volleys to enhance kill probability nd deter IAF from striking it's territory. it's very tough to dodge a volley of lethal HQ9BE SAM i.e armed with both SARH & Passive IIR seeker which increases it's effectiveness.

However as things transpired IAF struck all it's assigned targets with impunity nd precision with min own loses. Contested loses occurred after IAF strike fighters droped their PGMs nd were retreating. PAF could affect 3 or albiet 2 attrition to retreating fighters by ground based SAMs.. their fighter aircraft also fired few PL15e to retreating fighters but all were successfully evaded. this was done to credit IAF loses to PAF fighter aircrafts to build hysteria nd propaganda.

Give the same conditions to any airforces around the world that operates only 4.5 gen vectors to achieve the herculean objective of striking multiple non military targets without doing SEAD nd DEAD nd targeting any military installations u will see max attrition will be inflicted.

Same thing IAF learnt when it itself stimulated strike against S400 ADS in one of its exercise.. it incurred an 80% loss to strike package where remaining aircrafts fled

So instead of buying into semantics nd rhetorics.. IAF did exceptionally well in a scenario which was actually a sucide mission. It struck all targets assigned to it with pin point accuracy nd min own loses.

PAF is now faced with same challenge to repeat what IAF could achieve.. thus it understands the challenge faced by deadly S400 system which is even more lethal than their HQ9BE which is a copy of S300.. thus i say again PAF can only cook propaganda but it won't dare repeating any Swift Retort type strike again.. nd will simply chicken out as seen by recent antics of Paxtan.

JAI HIND!!

mig-29 wreckage photo is from 14 years ago.
rafael photo was in circulation seven months ago.
 
So here's my rational analysis of what transpired in yesterday Op Sindoor..after studying both indian nd Paxtan side of story..herein i will try to comprehensively answer all the queries nd solve claims nd counter claims nd give my reasoning for the same.

I will come to contested claims of loses Latter so let's analyze air strike first nd it's objectives..how IAF meticulously nd carefully planned an attack of this magnitude which many here or in defense circle were apprehensive of.

First nd foremost we have to give prime importance to objectives rather than semantics nd rhetorics.. then only we can analyse the truth rationaly.

So the clear objective of IAF was to struck assigned non military targets (9 terrorist camps across pak heartland) with minimum own loses.

Nd the objective of PAF was to deter IAF from achieving it's objective i.e denying bombing of it's territory nd inflict max attrition to strike package (75-80 IAF aircrafts)

NOW we hv clear answer who achieved it's objectives successfully.

Paxtan claims nearly 75-80 IAF aircrafts supported with loitering munitions (for strike nd BDA) participated in this attack now compare this with balakot strike where only dozens of mirage participate where only 5-6 crossed nd bombed paxtan.. this shows the magnitude nd humongous level of strike package.

Now did all 75-80 aircrafts attacked paxtan? Nope..

instead it was a brilliant nd judiciously crafted plan where multiple fighter sweeps were made at multiple locations.. there are reports of same aircrafts making multiple sweeps before actually attacking to evade threat of incoming SAMs nd BVRAAMs before releasing there PGMs.

From starting IAF knew it would be really onerous to achieve a strike of this ginormous magnitude with zero loses without doing any SEAD nd DEAD keeping in mind threat faced by deadly long range ADS (HQ9B- 260km). Thus in theory it was a suicide mission nd i feared worst while kudos to IAF.. they achieved their objectives with minimum own loses (material).

NOW all those who scorn off value of tactical nd strategic ADS need to study RUSSIAN-UKRAINE war where russian airforce has absolute domination over Ukrainian airforce with 10:1 ratio before the war. They had more modern nd sophisticated air vectors to absolutely annihilate ukraine nd give victory to russia on a plate as many defence analyst nd war watchers were predicting at the start of russian invasion.. however how the much vouched nd superior russian airforce failed?? Ring any bells??

Because of ukraine employing AIR DENIAL with ADS (S300 nd patriot).. read the below links that substantiate my claims about danger of long range ADS nd Era of AIR DENIAL.

www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2023/september/air-denial-lessons-ukraine

www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/air-denial-the-dangerous-illusion-of-decisive-air-superiority

Since the start of russian Ukraine war think tanks nd osints hv credited min 80-100 russian fighter aircrafts to ADS.. Ukrainian claims are even higher going north of 300 loses to russian airforce (far fetched). If u include other fixed wings aircrafts nd heptors than loses will be even more.


Oki so now coming to own material loses there are contested claims of 3 material loses on our side.

1. Mig 29 in pampore (clear wreckage)
2. Mirage 2000 in akhnoor (only droptank)
3. Rafale in bathinda (clear wreckage)

Pakis hv claimed 5-6 but only 3 or albiet 2 are substantiated with proofs in ground. Mind u in this age of social media no loses can be hidden so we can safely assume all documanted (atleast by proofs in crash site) are true.

First of all stop believing Rafale is some magic bullet nd will somehow magically survive against deadly long range ADS..afterall it's not a stealth aircraft rather it's a 4.5 gen aircraft nd can be tracked nd targeted by SAMs.. i hv said this before in MMRCA thread where many were jumping saying that only rafale will give them parity against long range PAF ADS nd it's imminent purchase of 5th gen fighters.

It's an exceptional aircraft with excellent electronic stealth (wrt to Spectra).. however no electronic stealth equipped 4.5 gen fighter can ever replace a true 5th gen fighter with stealth shaping.. nd this is true for all 4.5 gen aircrafts be it euro fighter, gripen, USAF F teens or Chinese 4.5 gen fighters.. all are vulnerable to latest nd lethal long range ADS equipped with multiple seekers (Active, SARH & PHH) & targeting AESA RADARs that are resistant to jamming by employing LPI, FHSS nd LORO mode.

PAF employed long range (260km) HQ9B SAMs with firing multiple volleys to enhance kill probability nd deter IAF from striking it's territory. it's very tough to dodge a volley of lethal HQ9BE SAM i.e armed with both SARH & Passive IIR seeker which increases it's effectiveness.

However as things transpired IAF struck all it's assigned targets with impunity nd precision with min own loses. Contested loses occurred after IAF strike fighters droped their PGMs nd were retreating. PAF could affect 3 or albiet 2 attrition to retreating fighters by ground based SAMs.. their fighter aircraft also fired few PL15e to retreating fighters but all were successfully evaded. this was done to credit IAF loses to PAF fighter aircrafts to build hysteria nd propaganda.

Give the same conditions to any airforces around the world that operates only 4.5 gen vectors to achieve the herculean objective of striking multiple non military targets without doing SEAD nd DEAD nd targeting any military installations u will see max attrition will be inflicted.

Same thing IAF learnt when it itself stimulated strike against S400 ADS in one of its exercise.. it incurred an 80% loss to strike package where remaining aircrafts fled

So instead of buying into semantics nd rhetorics.. IAF did exceptionally well in a scenario which was actually a sucide mission. It struck all targets assigned to it with pin point accuracy nd min own loses.

PAF is now faced with same challenge to repeat what IAF could achieve.. thus it understands the challenge faced by deadly S400 system which is even more lethal than their HQ9BE which is a copy of S300.. thus i say again PAF can only cook propaganda but it won't dare repeating any Swift Retort type strike again.. nd will simply chicken out as seen by recent antics of Paxtan.

JAI HIND!!

View: https://x.com/SirJambavan/status/1920274113240732153?t=8tt7uDpbP79on2qLoxrosA&s=19
 
Has our supreme leader gone senile? Why the fuck are we explaining our actions by calling P5 to MEA? They even called the Chinese despite them backing Porki scum and knowing very well they will not take our side in UNSC.

Remember one reality of modern war : Unless you are permament member of UNSC, you MUST play to the gallery & do due dilligence & earn good will. THAT is the set-play to any war, no matter how big and powerful, for a non permanent member of UNSC.
The reason is simple -
if you dont do your due dilligence and play by the rules diplomatically, you will get your ass sanctioned in the UN General Assembly. And if no one is there to veto the motion in the UNSC, you end up like Apartheid South Africa. Your stock market dies in a week. like ends up at 0 points literally. And Apartheid South Africa was **NOT** a joke in terms of power - it de-facto militarily controlled Namibia and Botswana THROUGH apartheid period and had nuclear weapons (that it gave up near end of apartheid so blacks dont have nukes).
So if Apartheid south africa can disappear from world network in blink of an eye due to this UNGA+UNSC chudaai, ANYONE can who doesnt meet criteria of UNSC permanent member.

So whether you like it or not, REALITY dictates, we must do chai-biskoot. no if and or buts.

First, sending our men to bomb them without SEAD is a big mistake. Second, stopping at one strike without another one. Now he will go back and sing "Saab ka sath Saab ka vikas". Are we forever going to keep reacting to terror attacks by ignoring Porki military scum protecting those filth? There was one scumbag who was defense minister in UPA said in Rajya Sabha that terrorists wore Porki military uniform to attack our forces thereby absolving them of any crime.
You cant blame Modi for SEAD mistake or whatever. WTF. That is putting IAF chief's neck on the block not Modi. Modi is not Hitler and thank god he is not Hitler, coz last thing i want Modi to do, is fuck around with actual engagement & battle plans.
So why the hell are you blaming him for this ? Its a sophistry trope of 'well he is commander in chief he must bear responsibility' - because his responsibility for any failed military mission, is to turn that general/chief/admirals ass into kebab and frog-march him to Tihar jail after court marshall.
Thats it.

Our supreme leader is doing the same shit. I said this shit over and over again to take action in winter. Until then tire them out. Stop playing to the gallery of low IQ morons in this country. Sending our men with one hand tied behind their back in heavily contested skies, what the fuck was he thinking? We got to immediately fire Dhoval. He is older than Modi and must be sent to retirement home. Why do we chicken out after one strike? As a bigger power we should be staring down and breathing down on their necks. Day by day he is losing respect. A terror attack happens, country calls for revenge, a strike happens within few days, then everyone forgets about it and go about their lives. This has now become a circus. And our supreme leader is starting to become a clown in this circus.
The reason is simple- we are playing to the gallery.
Our stance ON PAPER - is we are retaliating for terror attack. Therefore we struck terror camps.
We arent facking morons- we KNOW pakis will escalate and seems like we WANT them to escalate.
And when they do, when their MILITARY engages us, then we start delivering jhappar - remember, modi said that he's given full reign to the services.so services are running the op-ed. Criticize them, big them up, but ball is in THEIR court. But diplomatically, this is the framework we are framing THIS war in : terror attack-->response to terror infrastructure -->retaliation by pakmil--->full war---> so WE didnt start this shit.
Pressure on pakistan from UNGA angle. Back to point #1. Understand how the game is played at the multidimensional level, with the FRAME of the pic being this UNGA->UNSC framework.

Like you, i am also strong advocate of bleeding them dry till winter and then doing something. but clearly, like you, i have ZERO clue to the actual realpolitik at play - we have no idea what king of time rope we have, what other things are brewing, etc- if MoD decided that summer is time to act, i am going to trust our jawaans and forces and go out on a limb and say that this must be a decision based on strong inputs of the armed services as well.

This is not time for doubt, especially when WE are holding all the main optical advantage - paki cities blew up. not ours. only hard evidence of any loss is of pak jf17 and that damn chinku missile.
So we own the evidence battlespace.
Lets not dhoti-shiver at this point, especially once you understand the ground reality of the UNGA+UNSC frame for warfare in modern world.

In short, i will break down ACTUAL world power and war power, regardless of economic + military power for everyone here:
There are true mensch, then there are hijdas. ALL hijdas must do the dance before they get paid, no matter what and the ONLY mensch are the ones with UNSC veto.You can be japan, you can be germany, you can be us desis, you can be brazil with nukes, but if you aint in UNSC, you =hijda. As long as the UN exists, this is the final and only frame of ANY war that matters.EVER.THE END.


PS: This is why i think we all should make a Dhaam- event of pissing on Nehru's grave for being the biggest fool on the planet for NOT taking the UNSC permanent seat when it was on offer.

Coz ONLY then, we can do the dance of 'if powerful---> Chimp out and tell the world 'jo ukharna hai ukhaaro- veto hai bitch'.
 
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The drone attacks on Lahore airport is to stop civil aviation I think..
We don't need Pakis to use civilian aircraft as cover when they attack India..
Pakis being Pakis will love to use their own people as human shields..
Na there were no civilian flights from yesterday Pakistan ceased the airport and diverted all Lahore bound flights. They changed the code of airport to military one. This UAV attack is a kind of retaliation for trying to attack Amritsar yesterday night
 

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