Operation Sindoor

bablu666 said:
France govt should give a proper befitting response to all these fake allegations about Rafale. What's their strategy?
It has almost become official now as there is no response from the French Govt regarding this.


View: https://www.reddit.com/r/Military/comments/1kh1kkl/cnn_french_official_says_pakistan_downed_rafale/
Click to expand...

Pakis are gonna yap about rafale for kingdom come, completely forgetting about their two failed attempt to strike indian territory and getting fucked by drones in broad daylight.

People gotta understand that, paki establishment has invested alot in media FUD, it has been since the time they were chummy with USA, which give them access to insiders of these media orgs. We shouldn't waste time trying to win online war.

I really hope things don't end here, we need to keep the pot boiling. Also good thing that govt decided to strike pakjab instead ok PoK, it leaves no room for pakis to sk their trees and birds cope like last time.
 

Context: HQ-9 Failure in the 2025 Indo-Pak Crisis​

Multiple reports confirm that China-supplied HQ-9/HQ-9P (FD-2000) batteries in Lahore, Sialkot and Karachi failed to detect or intercept India’s SCALP and BrahMos salvos during Operation Sindoor and the follow-on naval raid. The systems were not only bypassed but several launchers and radars were themselves destroyed, leaving gaps in Pakistan’s integrated air-defence network. (Business Today, StratNews Global, OpIndia, Bharat Shakti)

Immediate Tactical Effects on Pakistan​

  • Air-defence paralysis: Once the HQ-9 grid was blinded, Indian aircraft operated at standoff range with impunity, and sea-launched BrahMos can strike and ignite fuel farms at Karachi. Pakistan now relies on shorter-range LY-80 and man-portable systems to cover critical nodes, forcing scarce fighters into point-defence duty and thinning its offensive air posture. (Business Today, India Today)
  • Decapitation risk: Loss of long-range SAM cover around Lahore and Karachi makes command-and-control, logistics hubs, and naval assets newly vulnerable to follow-on raids, accelerating India’s escalation dominance. (StratNews Global, Business Today)

Strategic Repercussions for the China–India Power Equation​

DimensionImpact on ChinaImpact on India
Technology CredibilityHQ-9’s public failure dents Beijing’s reputation as a provider of reliable A2/AD systems; prospective buyers (e.g., Middle-East, Africa) may reassess Chinese SAM offers. (OpIndia)Demonstrates that Indian SEAD/strike complexes (Rafale-SCALP, Su-30MKI-BrahMos, electronic warfare) can penetrate Chinese-origin defences—boosting New Delhi’s deterrence narrative and its own export pitch for BrahMos to ASEAN partners.
Border Deterrence (LAC)PLA batteries along the Line of Actual Control use domestic HQ-9 derivatives; their perceived invulnerability is now questioned, compelling the PLA to invest in higher-tier interceptors (HQ-22, HQ-19) or dispersal, raising costs.Indian planners gain confidence that supersonic/hypersonic cruise missiles based in the eastern sector could hold Tibetan logistics hubs at risk despite Chinese SAM cover, narrowing the capability gap on the Himalayan front.
Alliance SignallingBeijing’s pledge to backstop Islamabad militarily looks less credible; Pakistan may demand emergency deliveries of improved radars or Chinese HQ-22 batteries, deepening its dependence on China and risking further escalation.New Delhi can highlight the episode in QUAD and bilateral forums to stress the limits of Chinese power projection, strengthening strategic partnerships (e.g., with Japan, Australia) and attracting technology co-development.
Arms-Market CompetitionNegative publicity for HQ-9 under combat conditions hurts China’s export brand just as India/Russia begin marketing BrahMos-II and LRSAM to Southeast Asian states.Success of BrahMos and SCALP raises India’s profile as a precision-strike power and may accelerate BrahMos export deals (Philippines, Vietnam), indirectly offsetting Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific.

Game-Theory Lens: Recalibrated Deterrence​

In a repeated-crisis game, deterrence rests on demonstrated ability to impose costs. HQ-9’s failure reduces China’s perceived payoff from backing further Pakistani escalation because:

  1. Diminished credible shield: If Chinese hardware cannot protect Pakistani territory, China must commit its own air or naval forces to restore deterrence—a higher-risk, higher-cost move.
  2. India’s revealed strike capability: Successful multivector attacks show India can raise the cost curve faster than Pakistan (or China) can absorb, shifting the Nash equilibrium toward Indian deterrence dominance.
The rational Chinese response—short of direct intervention—is to upgrade Pakistani networks and invest in counter-BrahMos/hypersonic intercept; but such moves trigger an arms-race spiral that further burdens Beijing’s resources while giving India time to integrate its own S-400s and develop BrahMos-II.

Outlook​

  • Short term: Expect rapid Chinese emergency aid—spare HT-233 radars, HQ-22 batteries and electronic warfare kits—to patch Pakistan’s air-defence gaps, plus PLA advisory teams.
  • Medium term: India will exploit the window to press its coercive diplomacy: threaten additional precision strikes unless terror infrastructure is dismantled, confident that HQ-9 cannot shield key sites.
  • Long term: The psychological shift—from viewing Chinese systems as near-peer to seeing them defeated in real combat—tilts regional perceptions of power. If replicated against PLA assets elsewhere, it undercuts the core of China’s A2/AD strategy and strengthens India’s bargaining hand in future border or maritime standoffs.

In essence, HQ-9’s battlefield failure is more than a tactical setback for Pakistan—it reverberates through Beijing’s deterrence posture, eroding the technological aura that underpins Chinese influence while amplifying India’s emerging status as a precision-strike power.
 
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