A genuine question.
We attacked a nuke storage site with conventional munitions. Most likely bunker buster or BrahMos and we hit the entrance of the bunker that the Pakis have built into the tunnel.
Meaning post the door breach all that explosive and kinetic energy has been transferred inside.
How tolerant are nukes of external shocks before they go up in sympathetic detonation.?
I see 2 possibilities.
1. There was a sympathetic detonation which kicked off a sizeable chain detonation inside the facility that has been cut into the mountains.
Problems with this argument are,
a. How big of a detonation does it have to be to create that earthquake we saw?
b. How can we confirm this? Or alternatively what will we see on the ground in the near,mid term and Long term future at this site if this has come to pass?
2. Because of the explosive shock and kinetic energy, some or atleast one warhead stored there has leaked radioactive material inside the storage facility and the entire facility is contaminated. The implications are massive as this would take out a large chunk of paki nukes with minimal risk to us .
All that money that pakis have invested into the nukes is gone just like that. It will be quite a large sum as nukes are crazy expensive to build and maintain.
I am not saying this is what happened. This is just my speculation based on available information.
All if you please feel free to poke holes in this theory as the sudden entry of the yanks after some ' intelligence ' is really suspicious.
Re upping my post made after the abrupt ceasefire.
Based on the latest developments and the chatter surrounding the nuclear radiation detection planes of US DAE landing in Pakistan and along with the call between our MEA and Egypt FM, speculated to be about supply of Boron, what can we gleam from these developments?
The Nuclear material leakage is strongly rumored but there is absolutely no official word about this, some handles that peddle Gora GAE POV like that Derek Grossman fellow tweeted confirmation.
Well I don't believe we will be able to confirm this directly as I doubt any government will come out and admit if we did some damage to nukes and there is radiation.
However, if you beleive India was seriously looking to bang Porkis, which I don't, then this and risk if further nuclear radiation could be one valid reason we stood down.
And everything reversed in 1-2 years right. But everyone in the world would respect India as a superpower who established itself.
I tend to agree but we have many that don't want to take a economic hit to deal with the Porkies.