This is the first shot.. If Russia does nothing.. then soon US will launch 2000 km Tomahawk from Ukraine..with Typhon launcher.. which is in Zelensky's victory plan..
Erasing one Putin red line after another.. and soon Putin will look like a pig with lots of Red lipstick on him..Russian credibility with constant nuclear sabre rattling followed by doing nothing will be toast..
I am not saying attack NATO directly.. but atleast do something drastic in Ukraine
If Russian claims are right and the ATACMS is batting at 0% success rate outta 5 salvos, with 4 being intercepted and the only other just being a burning crash site, Russia isnt gonna do something drastic until something drastic happens to it in real terms.
In simple axioms of war, the side that is winning is going to play by the orthodox playbook, because they are winning and its working. The side that has to do something drastic, is the side that is losing. Russian cauldrons are working, so i dont see why they will lose the real meat and potatoes objective that actually determine war than just dick-waving and responding in those terms of 'red lines'.
That is the war-doctrine logic.
On the other hand, geopolitical logic may be different:
Russia is in a wait and watch mode i think, before it gets a good read on what Trump means by sueing for peace in Ukraine.
As it stands now, Russia will not accept frozen conflict, because that means accelerated ukrainian accession into NATO, at least in de-facto terms, coz those boots and material on ground are not leaving.
If trump smells weakness on the Russians or if he is pushed into a domestically unpalatable scenario by Russia, he may actually go even more hard and all-in against Russia and Russia will take that into consideration.
So they may make a big response to show they are serious and they are NOT going to let ukraine matter anymore to their security.
Which means Dnieper is the border, no if and or buts. So these are uncertain times imo, in the six months or longer stage. currently, i think it is a mad-dash to gain as much as they can before Trump is inaugurated, because greater the Russian gains between now and Trump coming to power, greater the Russian leverage on the peace talks that are virtually certain to be at least floated by Trump.