Russian Ukrainian War

[Blademaster]

Good.. No fun in throwing Ukraine under the bus..
Lets see how peace negotiations proceed..


View: https://x.com/vtchakarova/status/1894521298199482823?t=iNj1udrbQtvZg6vd5jfHGA&s=19

All it does is telecast to the Russians that they need to take over the eastern part of Ukraine and force US to come to terms with Russia on its terms otherwise US lose everything.

 

[WW2historian]

Good.. No fun in throwing Ukraine under the bus..
Lets see how peace negotiations proceed..


View: https://x.com/vtchakarova/status/1894521298199482823?t=iNj1udrbQtvZg6vd5jfHGA&s=19

Correct me if I'm wrong but Trump is now telling Putin that Ukraine will have the right to fight on because the mineral deal if finalized will do that. Trump is out of his frigging mind. He needs to listen to his former advisor Steve Bannon and Just cut your financial losses and walk the fuck away from Ukraine. Putin won't cut a deal and the US will lose their investment. I suppose he could sign a mineral deal with Putin when they conquer Ukraine, but why cut a deal now with the losing side?

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z1OIK9PVxNk

 

[MasterChief]

All it does is telecast to the Russians that they need to take over the eastern part of Ukraine and force US to come to terms with Russia on its terms otherwise US lose everything.

At the current rate where Pokrovsk still hasnt fallen, to capture just the remaining part of Donetsk [including fortresses like Kramatorsk and Slavyansk] would take 3 years.. Being able to take all of eastern Ukraine is very unlikely in the short term..
The war going on at the current rate with Europe progressively taking up more burden of military and finance, with Russia bleeding and not being able to project meaningful force elsewhere .. like in the middle east.. where Russian backed Assad regime just crumbled, severely damaging Russo Iranian power in the middle east is just fine for the Americans..
You see.. Defense is cheaper than offense.. and Russia cannot give up on offense, and settle for just land, because that would mean giving up on the aims of demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, which is far from being accomplished with a million man Ukraniam Army still standing..So, both Russia and Ukraine have to keep bleeding, which is just fine for the US

 

[MasterChief]

Correct me if I'm wrong but Trump is now telling Putin that Ukraine will have the right to fight on because the mineral deal if finalized will do that. Trump is out of his frigging mind. He needs to listen to his former advisor Steve Bannon and Just cut your financial losses and walk the fuck away from Ukraine. Putin won't cut a deal and the US will lose their investment. I suppose he could sign a mineral deal with Putin when they conquer Ukraine, but why cut a deal now with the losing side?

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z1OIK9PVxNk

You and the Russians are dealing in hope.. US will not abandon Ukraine, until Russia shows that it can bring to bear such overwhelming force, that the prospect of Ukranian state collapse becomes real.. Russia in the last 3 years has failed to show that it can completely collapse Ukranain state capacity.

Any deal with Russia will be a fair deal which will also enrich the Russian state and people and provide the money to further modernize the Russian military. The Ukraine minerals deal is a pure colonial and exploitation deal.. that makes sure that US owns Ukraine.

Trump's America is into naked colonialism now, so if US believes that Ukraine will survive the war with most of what it currently holds, then it will prefer the lopsided Ukraine deal..

 

[Blademaster]

You and the Russians are dealing in hope.. US will not abandon Ukraine, until Russia shows that it can bring to bear such overwhelming force, that the prospect of Ukranian state collapse becomes real.. Russia in the last 3 years has failed to show that it can completely collapse Ukranain state capacity.

Any deal with Russia will be a fair deal which will also enrich the Russian state and people and provide the money to further modernize the Russian military. The Ukraine minerals deal is a pure colonial and exploitation deal.. that makes sure that US owns Ukraine.

Trump's America is into naked colonialism now, so if US believes that Ukraine will survive the war with most of what it currently holds, then it will prefer the lopsided Ukraine deal..

Lol. Any country including Iraq would not collapse if they had received the level of support that Ukraine got. If Iraq had received 1/10th of the support that Ukraine got, Iraq would have completely resisted the US and Saddam Hussein would still have been in power.

 

[MasterChief]

View: https://x.com/ragipsoylu/status/1894058833246302478?t=TZmuEGshX9EcRnbRGYOnfg&s=19

Like I was saying.. If US abandons Ukraine , EU with weak conventional military, will have to partner with Turkey, which has been a reliable anti Russian force for centuries, because Russian expansion has always come at the cost of Turks' empire..

Erdogan is trying to make the most of this..

 

[MasterChief]

Lol. Any country including Iraq would not collapse if they had received the level of support that Ukraine got. If Iraq had received 1/10th of the support that Ukraine got, Iraq would have completely resisted the US and Saddam Hussein would still have been in power.

You are right.. 100 percent.. Ukraine has got more support in inflation adjusted dollars than what Soviet Union received during the whole of WW2..
But, that is the Ukraine that Russia has to deal with ..

A Ukraine that is fully backed by EU and backed by US as well, although level of US support would decline a bit under trump..

 

[GaudaNaresh]

You and the Russians are dealing in hope.. US will not abandon Ukraine, until Russia shows that it can bring to bear such overwhelming force, that the prospect of Ukranian state collapse becomes real.. Russia in the last 3 years has failed to show that it can completely collapse Ukranain state capacity.

Any deal with Russia will be a fair deal which will also enrich the Russian state and people and provide the money to further modernize the Russian military. The Ukraine minerals deal is a pure colonial and exploitation deal.. that makes sure that US owns Ukraine.

Trump's America is into naked colonialism now, so if US believes that Ukraine will survive the war with most of what it currently holds, then it will prefer the lopsided Ukraine deal..

This is also true.
The Russophiles here (which i am part of) expecting the US to collaborate with Russia to collapse Ukraine are living in la-la land. USA has zero incentive to do so, until Russia can actually demonstrate that it has military capacity & will to do an operation desert storm and TAKE parts of Ukraine.
If Russia is content to sit back and lower its casualties while grind ukraine meter by meter in a modern trench warfare, it wont find any deals till it at least takes Kharkov coz there is zero incentive for the west to give Russia everything it wants and call it a day, when on balance of it all, west is mostly just losing money and overall obsolete junk while Russia is losing actual blood and live in an economic partial blockade.
And thats exactly what these sanctions are - partial blockade. Like ubermensch Arab Khalif tried with Constantinople - set up shop around its walls and seiged the hell outta it but couldnt block the seas, so byzantines were inconvinienced, had to pay more for their shit, but got their shit in and out coz hello, seas trade.
And that is what is happening to Russia- it is getting its resources out and needs in, but paying a premium for it coz its uder this seige from the west.

For Russia to get a better deal, Russia will have to show it is Stalin's Red Army. Not British boffins holding back the tide or showing incremental gains here or there, coz at end of day, war is most naked projection of power there is and power respects power, not words.

 

[GaudaNaresh]

Lol. Any country including Iraq would not collapse if they had received the level of support that Ukraine got. If Iraq had received 1/10th of the support that Ukraine got, Iraq would have completely resisted the US and Saddam Hussein would still have been in power.

Yes, this is also true. But reality is, Russia still has to show it has ability to take a city in matter of couple of weeks if it wants, if it wants to be treated at the negotiation table as the big boy dictating terms to the little boy with other big boy furiously playing defence for the little boy.

As of now, Russia is pulling a Britain in ww2 - it can show victories and write a dossier but reality is, its not shown overwhelming force since opening months and looks bogged down and able to take bunch of football fields worth of territory per day, which isnt adequate force projection to be treated as Stalin trying to cut a deal with Poland with American intervention.
This looks like negotiations are British and French vs Egypt and USA with more weight to the Brits+French side than they had.

So Russia has two choices - negotiate from position of less power or project far more power and show the west that the options are cut your losses or lose. This is also reality.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

Good.. No fun in throwing Ukraine under the bus..
Lets see how peace negotiations proceed..


View: https://x.com/vtchakarova/status/1894521298199482823?t=iNj1udrbQtvZg6vd5jfHGA&s=19

will russia agree to this??

 

[WW2historian]

I can only take Putin at his word. His demands were the following recognise the DPR and the LPR as independent states. And the "demilitarization and denazification" of Ukraine, and claimed that Russia had no plans to occupy Ukrainian land. Also Ukraine can never join NATO.
IMO he won't budge from this. So again I have to ask How does he accomplish all of this? Not by allowing a peace keeping force in Ukraine, but for ALL of Ukraine to demilitarize. To denazify means regime change.

I've talked about Odessa a lot even though it was never mentioned in Putin's demands. It's a bargaining chip. Give me (Putin) what I want or I'll take Odessa and you will be landlocked and fucked as a country. Masterchef mentioned hopes, my hopes are that the west and Ukraine wakes the fuck up and takes the deal and save Odessa and end this war now. IMO that's a thousand to one chance, but you never know. So I've come full circle back to Putin won't end this until all of his demands are met, and it doesn't matter how long that takes.