Pahalgam Islamic Terror Attack

Got this from facebook

"Firing has started on enemy positions ahead of Leepa Nokot. May Allah keep everyone in His protection and safety.

A pakistani posted it.
 
I saw the post regarding gov admitting security lapse where they claimed that tour guide opened this early instead of June.
I am not buying that. I myself have visited Baisaran Valley in month of March-April that too twice.
Any forum members can share their time of visiting the baisaran Valley to verify this claim of mine.
 
vidhwanshak said:
I saw the post regarding gov admitting security lapse where they claimed that tour guide opened this early instead of June.
I am not buying that. I myself have visited Baisaran Valley in month of March-April that too twice.
Any forum members can share their time of visiting the baisaran Valley to verify this claim of mine.
Click to expand...
@falconSlayer is from J&K and probably he can attest to it
 
Sanglamorre said:
Yeah I'm not talking about the unaided border crossing by since abdul in a skiff in Sundarbans.

You can't smuggle entire herds of cow without BSF being in the know
Click to expand...
The order to not shoot is the problem. BSF should be order to shoot anything that moves in the border. Govt has suspended officers who shot at people crossing borders.
Same happened with Army Brig P Acharya.
 
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Okay, based on the whole atmosphere in the Indian defence apparatus and the government, the all-party meeting, HM briefing the President, the urgency with regards to IWT, cancelling the ceasefire agreement, the IAF exercise, the IN Vikrant carrier group in the Arabian Sea, Modi's remarks, I am going to try and predict impending events. @Mods, feel free to delete if it is inappropriate. And to give an objective measure of how much trust I have in my predictions, if I were a betting man, I'd accept 1 to 3 odds on them at best.

1. India escalates cross-border shelling with Pakistan and carries out Balakot-style air strikes, possibly coupled with Uri-style ground ops, but both in much larger strike packages. Only hits terrorist installations, initially avoiding engagement with the Pakistani military as much as possible.
2. While the offensive-defense style kinetic action is happening, India starts to block and divert the water flow. It has been established that, as of now, we lack long-term diversion and storage capabilities, but again, it isn't meant to be long-term anyway, and India has sufficient diversion and storage capacity at our disposal at the moment to significantly starve Pakistan of water for a couple of weeks.
3. Simultaneously, the INS Vikrant carrier group is also stationed close to but not in a blockade of Karachi. This is meant to act as a deterrent to any Pakistani misadventure and also allow for an instant blockade of Pakistan's lifeline in case of a full-fledged war.
4. Non-state actors in troubled regions of Pakistan take the opportunity to further put pressure on the Pakistani defence apparatus. India also holds the Taliban option to push Pakistan into a 2 front war if need arises.

After this, it's anyone's bet. Knowing Pakistan, starved of water, and having probably enough money to sustain war for a couple of weeks at max, the best it can do are some sorry ass scirmishes if Asim Munir chooses to be sensible. If not, it'll be an annihilation of Pakistan because no country in the world, not even China, will fund Pakistan's war effort. And let's be honest, Pakistan lacks the balls to go nuclear.

Therefore, Pakistan will either be forced to quietly witness the annihilation of part of its proxy apparatus and be dried out slowly and systematically over time, if it chooses to continue funding and rebuilding what will be left of the proxies, or face complete annihilation in a war with India in today's geopolitical climate.
 
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JConline said:
Okay, based on the whole atmosphere in the Indian defence apparatus and the government, the all-party meeting, HM briefing the President, the urgency with regards to IWT, cancelling the ceasefire agreement, the IAF exercise, the IN Vikrant carrier group in the Arabian Sea, Modi's remarks, I am going to try and predict impending events. @Mods, feel free to delete if it is inappropriate. And to give an objective measure of how much trust I have in my predictions, if I were a betting man, I'd accept 1 to 3 odds on them at best.

1. India escalates cross-border shelling with Pakistan and carries out Balakot-style air strikes, possibly coupled with Uri-style ground ops, but both in much larger strike packages. Only hits terrorist installations, initially avoiding engagement with the Pakistani military as much as possible.
2. While the offensive-defense style kinetic action is happening, India starts to block and divert the water flow. It has been established that, as of now, we lack long-term diversion and storage capabilities, but again, it isn't meant to be long-term anyway, and India has sufficient diversion and storage capacity at our disposal at the moment to significantly starve Pakistan of water for a couple of weeks.
3. Simultaneously, the INS Vikrant carrier group is also stationed close to but not in a blockade of Karachi. This is meant to act as a deterrent to any Pakistani misadventure and also allow for an instant blockade of Pakistan's lifeline in case of a full-fledged war.
4. Non-state actors in troubled regions of Pakistan take the opportunity to further put pressure on the Pakistani defence apparatus. India also holds the Taliban option to push Pakistan into a 2 front war if need arises.

After this, it's anyone's bet. Knowing Pakistan, starved of water, and having probably enough money to sustain war for a couple of weeks at max, the best it can do are some sorry ass scirmishes if Asim Munir chooses to be sensible. If not, it'll be an annihilation of Pakistan because no country in the world, not even China, will fund Pakistan's war effort. And let's be honest, Pakistan lacks the balls to go nuclear.

Therefore, Pakistan will either be forced to quietly witness the annihilation of part of its proxy apparatus and be dried out slowly and systematically over time, if it chooses to continue funding and rebuilding what will be left of the proxies, or face complete annihilation in a war with India in today's geopolitical climate.
Click to expand...
No clue how much of what you've written comes true but I prefer we degrade their war fighting machinery as well. Take down as many of their FAs & other flying assets as possible & then go in for the PN too. The damage must be such it takes them 2 decades to recover or given the state of their economy not at all.
 
JConline said:
Okay, based on the whole atmosphere in the Indian defence apparatus and the government, the all-party meeting, HM briefing the President, the urgency with regards to IWT, cancelling the ceasefire agreement, the IAF exercise, the IN Vikrant carrier group in the Arabian Sea, Modi's remarks, I am going to try and predict impending events. @Mods, feel free to delete if it is inappropriate. And to give an objective measure of how much trust I have in my predictions, if I were a betting man, I'd accept 1 to 3 odds on them at best.

1. India escalates cross-border shelling with Pakistan and carries out Balakot-style air strikes, possibly coupled with Uri-style ground ops, but both in much larger strike packages. Only hits terrorist installations, initially avoiding engagement with the Pakistani military as much as possible.
2. While the offensive-defense style kinetic action is happening, India starts to block and divert the water flow. It has been established that, as of now, we lack long-term diversion and storage capabilities, but again, it isn't meant to be long-term anyway, and India has sufficient diversion and storage capacity at our disposal at the moment to significantly starve Pakistan of water for a couple of weeks.
3. Simultaneously, the INS Vikrant carrier group is also stationed close to but not in a blockade of Karachi. This is meant to act as a deterrent to any Pakistani misadventure and also allow for an instant blockade of Pakistan's lifeline in case of a full-fledged war.
4. Non-state actors in troubled regions of Pakistan take the opportunity to further put pressure on the Pakistani defence apparatus. India also holds the Taliban option to push Pakistan into a 2 front war if need arises.

After this, it's anyone's bet. Knowing Pakistan, starved of water, and having probably enough money to sustain war for a couple of weeks at max, the best it can do are some sorry ass scirmishes if Asim Munir chooses to be sensible. If not, it'll be an annihilation of Pakistan because no country in the world, not even China, will fund Pakistan's war effort. And let's be honest, Pakistan lacks the balls to go nuclear.

Therefore, Pakistan will either be forced to quietly witness the annihilation of part of its proxy apparatus and be dried out slowly and systematically over time, if it chooses to continue funding and rebuilding what will be left of the proxies, or face complete annihilation in a war with India in today's geopolitical climate.
Click to expand...

How would hitting the terror factories help? We did this in 2016 and 2019. Unless we turn Pindi and Sargodha into craters and their f16s into burning cinder, will they not recoil and bite us again? We are no USAF and will take serious losses probably, but that's a cost we as a country should be willing to pay.
 
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