Indian Economy (9 Viewers)

[crazywithmath]

Current Size of forex reserves are just sufficient for normal time period. Its not high. Its not enough for what we need. We need around 1.2T USD atleast. Bcz a kinetic war is highly probable.

If this is your line of thought then even the most massive forex buffer will not satisfy you. Forex buffers do not let you thrive in wartime, if you get into a war you accept the fallout. Russkies, for instance, had reserves worth US$ 300 billlion frozen across gora nations - they are not going to get that money back anytime soon.

Either way, how exactly do you arrive at that mythical 1.2 trillion figure? Why not 2 trillion? Why not 1.5 trillion?

Now tell me how you propose RBI to reach that objective??

They do not need to. Merely not manipulating the exchange rate and letting the market take its own course of action would be enough and that is exactly how a confident fast growing economy is supposed to act. During periods of increased volatility, the RBI would get itself involved anyway - that is a given.

 

[vin pahadi (kumauni)]

View: https://x.com/IndianTechGuide/status/1933781788955967646

 

[vin pahadi (kumauni)]

View: https://x.com/rishibagree/status/1933844016392503459

 

[vin pahadi (kumauni)]

View: https://x.com/IndianTechGuide/status/1934174482698064365

 

[vin pahadi (kumauni)]

View: https://x.com/IndianTechGuide/status/1934257257392341027

 

[vin pahadi (kumauni)]

View: https://x.com/caleb_friesen2/status/1934191143740399929

 

[snakeeyes07]

View: https://x.com/IndianTechGuide/status/1934257257392341027

Instead of giving handouts to children for attending school. Why doesn't government make their school education free in public schools and provide some of 15,000 amount that is left to an Investment plan. The plan would be managed by a board, which is made up of private talented fund managers who are paid good money and their goal is to grow the portfolio. The board can be limited to only invest in Indian private equities, public companies, infrastructure and real estate.

When the children finish their high school and when they are around 18 years old, then the plan will provide an amount to them to help with college and other skill training related cost. In case they become unemployed, then the plan can also provide an amount for some time.

Something like Ontario Teacher Pension Plan, this will also boost indirect private investment and maybe more productive for the economy in the long run. Similarly other social welfare/handout can be structured the same way.

Since this is a defence forum, maybe Government can issue National Defence Modernization Bonds which will provide some return, these boards are encouraged to includes this in their portfolios. This way there is lot of additional money for buying local equipment which in itself stimulates economy.

 

[vin pahadi (kumauni)]

Instead of giving handouts to children for attending school. Why doesn't government make their school education free in public schools and provide some of 15,000 amount that is left to an Investment plan. The plan would be managed by a board, which is made up of private talented fund managers who are paid good money and their goal is to grow the portfolio. The board can be limited to only invest in Indian private equities, public companies, infrastructure and real estate.

When the children finish their high school and when they are around 18 years old, then the plan will provide an amount to them to help with college and other skill training related cost. In case they become unemployed, then the plan can also provide an amount for some time.

Something like Ontario Teacher Pension Plan, this will also boost indirect private investment and maybe more productive for the economy in the long run. Similarly other social welfare/handout can be structured the same way.

Since this is a defence forum, maybe Government can issue National Defence Modernization Bonds which will provide some return, these boards are encouraged to includes this in their portfolios. This way there is lot of additional money for buying local equipment which in itself stimulates economy.

well we hv Right to Education Act (RTE) enacted on 4 August 2009, implemented the right to free and compulsory education for children from 6 to 14 years in India under Article 21A of the Indian Constitution. dont know how much this act is following.

 

[snakeeyes07]

well we hv Right to Education Act (RTE) enacted on 4 August 2009, implemented the right to free and compulsory education for children from 6 to 14 years in India under Article 21A of the Indian Constitution. dont know how much this act is following.

In that case, maybe a part of the 15000 can be given as stipend and rest becomes part of an investment plan. The benefits will include:
- higher education/skill training encouragement and support
- basic unemployment support
- indirect private funding in Indian companies & Infra

Down the road after many years, maybe the plan will grow so large that it can open it's own university where members (students in the plan) don't pay a fee. Another example, maybe the funds invest and opens a restaurant franchise where only members are employed.

Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan (OTPP) for example has an annual rate of around 8.5% since it's inception in 1990, as it gets compounded so if 10000 was invested initially then after 35 years it would be at least 16x.

 

[silentassassin265]

We are consuming 5.2 million barrel oil per day. We produce only 772000 bbl oil per day. Now if we add another 250000 bbl then to it will just go to over 1 million barrel oil per day which will still be only 20% of our requirements. I am not sure from where they are saying 40%?

If electric vehicle made compulsory then oil consumption will also decrease.
Also we had discovered large lithium deposits

 

[redpanda]

well we hv Right to Education Act (RTE) enacted on 4 August 2009, implemented the right to free and compulsory education for children from 6 to 14 years in India under Article 21A of the Indian Constitution. dont know how much this act is following.

It is free in most state till 10th. But the quality of education in public schools are quite bad. So even poor folks are sending their kids to private schools.

 

[Azaad]

'EMIs, ego, and ₹10 lakh car': Data scientist says India's middle class is fueling its own downfall - BusinessToday

India’s credit card debt has ballooned to ₹2.92 lakh crore in just four years. Personal loans have surged by 75%. But Gosar argues that no one was coerced. “Banks didn’t trap us,” he writes. “They offered the rope. We tied the knots.”

www.businesstoday.in

 

[Migflug]

Policymakers, beware: "Make in India" increasingly means "Made in China" | White paper | Hinrich Foundation

As a middle power with severe deficits in critical technology, it serves New Delhi well to draw on increased economic linkages with both the US and China, at least in the near term.

www.hinrichfoundation.com

View: https://x.com/Saiarav/status/1934509097774370883?t=h2gXDcBIRd94fIEWdvZ6KQ&s=19

Some good points !!

 

[shade2]

Policymakers, beware: "Make in India" increasingly means "Made in China" | White paper | Hinrich Foundation

As a middle power with severe deficits in critical technology, it serves New Delhi well to draw on increased economic linkages with both the US and China, at least in the near term.

www.hinrichfoundation.com

Actual title is this

"Make in India" relies on "Made in China"​

I mean it is correct, Made In China relied on Made in Germany machines, Made in US, Korea and Japan parts and Made in Japan specialists and technology.

Wonder what such dallas try to prove with these ((( narrative articles )))

 

[notaname]

'EMIs, ego, and ₹10 lakh car': Data scientist says India's middle class is fueling its own downfall - BusinessToday

India’s credit card debt has ballooned to ₹2.92 lakh crore in just four years. Personal loans have surged by 75%. But Gosar argues that no one was coerced. “Banks didn’t trap us,” he writes. “They offered the rope. We tied the knots.”

www.businesstoday.in

I really hate this type of statement from LinkedIn.

Let's take his example of a friend having a package of ₹15 LPA and purchasing a car costing ₹10 lakh. He then goes on to say that he should have purchased a used car instead of a new one.
But, holistically, for a normal working-class person, purchasing a second-hand car comes with many problems, such as whether it was in an accident or is a dud, and many other things.
The headache and uncertainty that come with a used car are much more than an EMI, because you don't know when it could stall in the middle of the road.

And now, coming to the package, if a person earning ₹15 LPA cannot purchase a ₹10 lakh car—which is the lowest you could go for a decent car—then I think there is a serious problem with the economy, because ₹15 LPA is by no means a small salary in our country. These Bengaluru and metro city people forget what the average salary for the Indian working class is.

These LinkedIn posts shame the middle class for spending, then cry when spending stops. The same is true of fake financial influencers who say, "Don't buy a house; rent and invest that money in the stock market." Such suggestions should not be taken seriously. Renting has many downsides: a landlord can evict you at any time, as happened during COVID. If a family member dies, the landlord may not allow the body into the house, though exceptions may exist.

Always take decision based on your own understanding and will to grind for it, nothing else matters in the end.

 

[Ajayant Tripathi]

If this is your line of thought then even the most massive forex buffer will not satisfy you. Forex buffers do not let you thrive in wartime, if you get into a war you accept the fallout. Russkies, for instance, had reserves worth US$ 300 billlion frozen across gora nations - they are not going to get that money back anytime soon.

Either way, how exactly do you arrive at that mythical 1.2 trillion figure? Why not 2 trillion? Why not 1.5 trillion?



They do not need to. Merely not manipulating the exchange rate and letting the market take its own course of action would be enough and that is exactly how a confident fast growing economy is supposed to act. During periods of increased volatility, the RBI would get itself involved anyway - that is a given.

Russia: Large Commodity Exporter, Mature Military Technology,
India: Large Commodity Importer, Imports Military Equipment.

Do you see now?? How Russia and India are structurally Different??

Russia: Forex freezed by western countries.
India: Highley unlikely as our primary adversaries are Porkies and Chinese.

Even RBI thinks it needs around a Trillion USD in forex. It was when we were even more smaller economy.

RBI Monetary Policy | $1 trillion forex reserves: A pipe dream

RBI is aware of the cost of accumulation

web.archive.org

But my estimation is we should keep our forex reserves around 1.2T USD. We don't need more than that.


Now, To your second part. Its RBI's prerogative to do whatever it seems fit to dutifully and responsibly discharge its mandate. RBI has no obligation to make speculators some money.

A Note on Market: Markets are neither efficient nor capable of self correction. It was one of the major insight that was firmed in GFC 2008. Thats why Fed expanded its scope from being a lender of last resort to Banks to lender of last resort to Markets. So Markets are not sacrosanct always. Its their stability that matters. RBI's action doesn't destabilize markets. Source of Market volatility was outside of India. RBI may have seen the market reaction destabilizing. So, It acted in a way that was beneficial to Indian Domestic Markets.

 

[Azaad]

I really hate this type of statement from LinkedIn.

Let's take his example of a friend having a package of ₹15 LPA and purchasing a car costing ₹10 lakh. He then goes on to say that he should have purchased a used car instead of a new one.
But, holistically, for a normal working-class person, purchasing a second-hand car comes with many problems, such as whether it was in an accident or is a dud, and many other things.
The headache and uncertainty that come with a used car are much more than an EMI, because you don't know when it could stall in the middle of the road.

And now, coming to the package, if a person earning ₹15 LPA cannot purchase a ₹10 lakh car—which is the lowest you could go for a decent car—then I think there is a serious problem with the economy, because ₹15 LPA is by no means a small salary in our country. These Bengaluru and metro city people forget what the average salary for the Indian working class is.

These LinkedIn posts shame the middle class for spending, then cry when spending stops. The same is true of fake financial influencers who say, "Don't buy a house; rent and invest that money in the stock market." Such suggestions should not be taken seriously. Renting has many downsides: a landlord can evict you at any time, as happened during COVID. If a family member dies, the landlord may not allow the body into the house, though exceptions may exist.

Always take decision based on your own understanding and will to grind for it, nothing else matters in the end.

This particular case study apart, young ones these days can't handle money especially if they earn the kind cited in the article.

Priorities are all mixed up. Ideally that person should've gone in for an apartment before a car. Self accommodation is mandatory & should top the list of priorities especially when the pay back period is spread out over 2 decades at least.

Secondly a lot of people in this age group will discover that jobs dry up in their 40s especially if they haven't grown to a certain level by then. I've seen people my age group including ex colleagues & friends struggle & compromise a lot to secure jobs, once they're downsized / right sized.

If this is the situation today you can imagine what it's going to be in a couple of decades once decoupling which is in the initial stages now is complete by then. Add to that a very uncertain world we're entering where free trade will be a thing of the past .

Which is the reason I suggested entrepreneurship after 10-15 years of employment in any sector.

Ideally a person starts out between the ages of 35-40 by which time hopefully he has wiped off his liabilities & has a small asset base to help in his teething period as an entrepreneur.

 

[notaname]

This particular case study apart, young ones these days can't handle money especially if they earn the kind cited in the article.

Priorities are all mixed up. Ideally that person should've gone in for an apartment before a car. Self accommodation is mandatory & should top the list of priorities especially when the pay back period is spread out over 2 decades at least.

Secondly a lot of people in this age group will discover that jobs dry up in their 40s especially if they haven't grown to a certain level by then. I've seen people my age group including ex colleagues & friends struggle & compromise a lot to secure jobs, once they're downsized / right sized.

If this is the situation today you can imagine what it's going to be in a couple of decades once decoupling which is in the initial stages now is complete by then. Add to that a very uncertain world we're entering where free trade will be a thing of the past .

Which is the reason I suggested entrepreneurship after 10-15 years of employment in any sector.

Ideally a person starts out between the ages of 35-40 by which time hopefully he has wiped off his liabilities & has a small asset base to help in his teething period as an entrepreneur.

Yes, this is the best advice/career path one can take. I also first bought a house, then a car, after I was comfortable with the expenses.

I agree with each point. Regarding jobs drying up, I understand that, after some years, for Gen Z like me, retirement from jobs will be enforced by corporations after a maximum of 15–20 years of experience.

Many changes are happening in the IT sector, and nothing is clear. I am reading research papers and many op-eds, and none of them can articulate or understand the coming changes. Nobody is sure what impact AI will have or has already had.

Every organization is cutting down and bracing for impact; they don't know what the future holds. The hype around AI is so significant that it has overshadowed many other aspects.

 

[sauntheninja]

Policymakers, beware: "Make in India" increasingly means "Made in China" | White paper | Hinrich Foundation

As a middle power with severe deficits in critical technology, it serves New Delhi well to draw on increased economic linkages with both the US and China, at least in the near term.

www.hinrichfoundation.com

View: https://x.com/Saiarav/status/1934509097774370883?t=h2gXDcBIRd94fIEWdvZ6KQ&s=19

Some good points !!

The fact that manufacturing isn't rising as fast as it rose in other miracle economies is what is preventing us from growing at above 6-7% and it will be the thing that ultimately stops us from ever reaching developed status. Laggardly we will reach around a per capita income of countries like Brazil, Thailand but then the growth will slow down.

All our major growth drivers is still services and services growth will cap out eventually

 

[eastern_bhartiya]

The fact that manufacturing isn't rising as fast as it rose in other miracle economies is what is preventing us from growing at above 6-7% and it will be the thing that ultimately stops us from ever reaching developed status. Laggardly we will reach around a per capita income of countries like Brazil, Thailand but then the growth will slow down.

All our major growth drivers is still services and services growth will cap out eventually

This can prove to be pretty bad for BJP in places like up , rural wage stagnation is pretty serious,
Now I can understand why bjp govt titled towards freebies, without it we might see stagnation in demands, which is already stagnated since Covid.

Manufacturing is quite disappointing, Red tape, outdated approach and lack of collusion between industry and academia is all to be blamed. And land acquisition is a whole another issue.