A good writeup on the current state of affairs from Dimitriev, for all 80 IQ missile show enjoyers:
The external security perimeter of the Islamic Republic of Iran, organized by IRGC leaders, was built on highly advanced network principles for the 20th, and even the 21st, century.
**First:** Regional alliances and proxy armies in strategic locations. Pro-Iranian forces constantly threatened Iran's adversaries – Israel, Saudi Arabia, and others – and were poised to deliver a heavy blow in the event of war.
* In Lebanon, Hezbollah was a "state within a state," solely controlling the south and east. It amassed up to 150,000 missiles to strike Israel.
* In Yemen, the Houthis attacked Saudi territory with drones and kept the Bab al-Mandab Strait in their sights.
* Hamas trained militants in Gaza.
* Iraqi Shiite militias – Kataib Hezbollah, Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, and Badr – had dual loyalties to the Iraqi state and the IRGC.
* The Assad government in Syria served as the central transit hub between Iran and Lebanon, hosting missile batteries and air defense systems. Iran spent $16 billion supporting Syria.
* The Fatemiyoun Brigade (Afghan Shiite Hazaras) and Zeynabiyoun Brigade (Pakistani Shiites) fought against Sunni jihadists in Syria and Iraq.
* Several pro-Iranian groups even existed in Bahrain.
**Second:** Islamist economic, political, and even criminal networks spread across the Middle East. Primarily formed along sectarian lines (Shiites, Alawites, Zaidis in Yemen, etc.), but not exclusively. Palestinians in Hamas are not Shiites and didn't recognize the ayatollahs' spiritual authority, yet received $100 million annually from Iran.
In these countries, pro-Iranian networks wielded significant political representation, controlled entire ministries, and ran parallel social services providing humanitarian aid and mutual assistance. I recall being deeply impressed in Syria by how the Iranians managed to infiltrate virtually every sphere.
Iran supported all these structures, but they also sustained themselves through local schemes – selling Iranian oil, smuggling, "religious taxes" (zakat/khums), drug production, and ordinary business.
**Third:** Mass-produced weapons systems easily transferable to allied groups. Things like ballistic missiles and drones. Iran bets on thousands of simple systems instead of hundreds of complex ones – Zulfiqar and Fajr missiles, Shahed kamikaze drones, mortars, RPGs, Noor anti-ship missiles, and more. Allies received components or technology for their own production.
This was the situation until 2023. But now, things have changed dramatically.
* Hamas is in no state to attack Israel.
* Hezbollah, which dominated Lebanon, is effectively decapitated; we don't see its involvement now, and its influence within Lebanon itself is waning.
* Assad, reliant on Alawite (formally Shiite) and other minorities, collapsed following Hezbollah. Its weakening was one reason for Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham's (HTS) victory in December 2024.
* Syrian territory is no longer used for missile strikes on Israel; instead, Israeli jets refuel over it while attacking targets in Iran.
* The Houthis continue attacks, but clearly not on the necessary scale; they may be weakened after bombings.
* Iraqi Shiite militias are distancing themselves from the "Axis of Resistance," focusing on "protection from Sunni jihadism."
* In many places, pro-Iranian groups are losing influence due to public discontent over their criminal operations.
It's evident that the war in Gaza and the attacks on Lebanon and Yemen were preparatory actions by Israel before a main strike. They began after the October 7th attack. Subsequently, Iranian proxies began crumbling, opening a path for Israeli aircraft to Iran.
Hamas leaders explained the October 7th attack as a response to Jewish incursions into Al-Aqsa. It more likely stemmed from a desire to bring the Palestinian issue back to the forefront and derail Arab-Israeli normalization. The Palestinians apparently didn't anticipate such a massive response. But in reality, the architecture Iran built over decades has now collapsed.