India should reorient its policies to find common ground with the U.S.
(Bangladesh in an example)
The U.S. is capable of arming India’s neighbors to attack India, as seen with Pakistan in 1965, 1971, and 1999, and can also instigate civil disorder, as they did recently in Bangladesh. They attempted a similar strategy in India during the farmers' agitation and the Red Fort attack but failed. The U.S.'s intent is to pressure India to cease oil purchases from Russia, a demand they avoid making to China due to fear. Instead, they view India as an easier target.
The U.S. must realize that much of the Russian oil refined in India ends up as diesel in Europe, which is in short supply due to the halt in Russian oil exports. Europe urgently needs this diesel and imports about $10 billion worth from India.
Bangladesh was an easy target for the U.S. due to the presence of pro-Pakistani supporters, which they exploited along with opposition party lead by Khalida Zia and American-funded student movement. The protests were fronted by students, while the actual violence was largely carried out by workers of Khalida Zia’s party, which is also funded by the U.S.
For India, continuing oil purchases from Russia and maintaining alignment with the U.S. on some international issues seemed beneficial to India, but not to the US. Modi, a right-wing pro-Hindu, pro-West leader, has shifted India from socialism to capitalism, a transformation deeply rooted in Indian politics. The U.S. supports this economic shift, but Modi’s independent stance on some foreign policies and restrictions on Christian conversions in India have caused friction. The U.S. is using the CAA backdrop to push for conversions, an effort they would not dare attempt in Pakistan due to safety concerns for their priests.
For rapid Indian economic growth, the U.S. and the West is crucial, not Russia, unless the U.S. poses a military threat as in 1971. That has to be kept in mind for policy formulations. The U.S. reaction towards India will become clearer after the November 6th election. If Democrats remain in power, U.S. policy towards India is unlikely to change, and India will need to adjust. If Republicans win, then a significant shift is expected, and Trump may end the Ukraine war and alter U.S. policies in Washington.
So, what is advisable for India? The best option is to support U.S. foreign policy in most cases. The Ukraine war is nearing its end, and India could play a role in this. Gradually, India should encourage Europe to arrange their own diesel supply and not depend on for Russian refined oil.
The best foreign policy gift India could offer to the U.S. is to join the anti-Chinese QUAD group more aggressively. India should remove all unnecessary objections to India’s participation in QUAD. Also, offer more repair and refurbishing facility for US naval ships in India. These foreign policy adjustments would be favorable to the U.S. They probably would also remove all go slow tactics on GE F 404 and F414 engineer.
