Chinese Economy Watch

[E-195]

he is saying a foolish thing as you map shows India has excellent weather for agriculture thus you have millions of people.


In my humble opinion India in an Ideal world should be allowed to move people to central asia, same China, but politics are the main problem

 

[srev2004]

 

[srev2004]

More than half of China is uninhabitable and a high altitude desert environment.

 

[srev2004]

As you can see, your only population centers are located where the temperature range is closer to India

 

[helin]

 

[srev2004]

@rockdog did you disappear into the woods?

 

[E-195]

View attachment 9563

Xiaomi 13 Pro​

Powered by Snapdragon 8 Gen 2 Mobile Platform​

The Xiaomi 13 Pro, powered by the Snapdragon 8 Gen 2 Mobile Platform, is based on Qualcomm FastConnect 7800 featuring next-gen, high-performance WiFi and Dual Bluetooth, and packed with AI fueled performance and power.

Xiaomi Mi 13 Pro

The Xiaomi Mi 13 Pro, powered by the Snapdragon 8 Gen 2 Mobile Platform, is based on Qualcomm FastConnect 7800 featuring next-gen, high-performance WiFi and Dual Bluetooth, and packed with AI fueled performance and power.

www.qualcomm.com

Qualcomm Incorporated is an American multinational corporation headquartered in San Diego, California, and incorporated in Delaware.
Arm Holdings plc is a British semiconductor and software design company based in Cambridge, England, whose primary business is the design

Which phones have Snapdragon processors?​

 There are over a billion smartphones worldwide that use Snapdragon processors. Most premium-tier and high-tier smartphones from manufacturers like Samsung, Xiaomi, OnePlus, and Vivo use Snapdragon processors.

What is Snapdragon

Snapdragon is a system-on-a-chip (SoC) processor that is inside a wide variety of devices. Get the answer to this and other questions about Snapdragon processors on our FAQ.

www.qualcomm.com

uhmmm american brain

 

[helin]

September 15, 2024 – In a significant breakthrough, China has achieved a new milestone in the glass industry by developing an ultra-thin glass with a thickness of just 0.03 millimeters. This innovation, showcased at the recent CCTV Finance 915 Evening Gala, has the potential to revolutionize the market for foldable smartphones.
The development of this ultra-thin glass, which is as thin as a cicada’s wing, has been a highly secretive endeavor by Chinese scientists. The goal was to create a flexible display glass, a crucial component for the market’s popular foldable smartphones. Through advanced processes, the glass has been reduced to one-seventh of its original thickness, reaching the remarkable thickness of 0.03 millimeters.
This breakthrough has once again broken the international monopoly in the glass material field, propelling China to a leading position globally. The research and production of this ultra-thin glass vividly demonstrate the achievements of China’s high-quality development. It has realized a leap from nothing to something in the field of high-end electronic glass, ushering in the micrometer era for the large-scale manufacturing of glass materials in China.
Professor Zhang Chong, a member of the National Excellent Engineer Team, stated at the 915 Evening Gala that this super glass, when applied to foldable smartphone screens, can withstand bending the screen one hundred times a day, extending the lifespan of foldable phones to over 20 years.
The significance of this achievement cannot be overstated. The demand for foldable smartphones has been on the rise, with consumers increasingly seeking innovative and durable devices. The introduction of this ultra-thin glass is expected to greatly enhance the durability and longevity of these devices, addressing a key concern for consumers and manufacturers alike.
The development of this ultra-thin glass also marks a significant leap forward for China’s glass industry. The country has long been known for its traditional glass-making techniques, but this breakthrough signifies a shift towards high-tech, advanced manufacturing. It is a testament to China’s commitment to innovation and its ability to compete on the global stage.
Furthermore, this development is a testament to the power of scientific research and innovation in driving economic growth and technological advancement. It is a reminder that investing in research and development can lead to groundbreaking discoveries that have far-reaching impacts.
In conclusion, China’s breakthrough in the production of ultra-thin glass is not just a technological achievement, but a significant step towards a more sustainable and innovative future. It is a testament to the country’s commitment to technological advancement and its ability to compete on the global stage. The potential applications of this ultra-thin glass are vast, and it is expected to have a significant impact on various industries, including smartphones, automotive, and more.
As China continues to push the boundaries of technology, the world will be watching closely to see what other innovations the country will bring to the table. The future looks bright, and with advancements like this, China is poised to continue its upward trajectory in the global tech landscape.


View: https://youtube.com/shorts/HVEvjbVNiG0?si=C7wge-pu_Em989G9

 

[rockdog]

What is the assertion you are making?

High temperature = low gdp. I don’t get it. Can you reiterate what your position is?

If you check this graph, the more closed to trophical area, the less high GDP nations. This is where 50% world GDP generated.

More than half of China is uninhabitable and a high altitude desert environment.

Again, let me post the "Hu Line" here.

Heihe–Tengchong Line - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

You are saying we can’t afford air conditioning or factories refuse to setup. Most of Indian manufacturing is setup in Chennai. Based on your logic Bangalore would have been the ideal choice. Why are manufacturers choosing Chennai. By the way Chennai gets absurdly hot.

That's what i meant. Ur BP and UP have vast population but with lower per GDP and high temp, plus they have no seaport nearby. One Chennai is not enough.

Do you have any data to back up temperatures is the main concern for manufacturing?

If that’s the case why is Detroit the manufacturing capital of US vs California?

Because they are developed, even for certain months it's hot, they have enough resouce for cooling system.

Singapore’s founding father thought air conditioning was the secret to his country’s success

Singapore’s founding father thought air conditioning was the secret to his country’s success

Vox is a general interest news site for the 21st century. Its mission: to help everyone understand our complicated world, so that we can all help shape it. In text, video and audio, our reporters explain politics, policy, world affairs, technology, culture, science, the climate crisis, money...

www.vox.com

China also has some hot weahter lasts for 1 or 2 months, but India lasted almost a quarter or even more.

Since May 2024, a severe and long heat wave has impacted India. The heat wave occurred during the Indian dry season, which typically lasts from March to July with peak temperatures in April and May. Rajasthan's Churu recorded 50.5 °C (122.9 °F), which was the highest temperature in India in eight years. Peak temp.

2024 Indian heat wave - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

You should know that, in any modern industry, hot temp is the killer for machine's precious on operating, and coolinig system cost would be crucial part of total cost if you desgined for full time.

Plus, India is lack of stable power grid and cheap energy resource like gas and oil. If setting up a factory, workig condition both on manchine and employee always be a big factor.

This is my lab, this summer the temp was also 35 degree something, since the place is 12 meter's high, we counldn't install any cooling system as whole on industry level, if so we need to spend half million of USD.

The only solution was we building studio inside, but still spent lots of many on home-use level ACs and contruction on studios.










This is why i think as the global warning is trend, and India suffered more than other places with massive population, any manufactures would cost more and more, might be India would never get any cost competitiveness over China even you have more population and lower salary, finally low manufacture means low GDP.

That's my point, welcome to debate.

 

[rockdog]

View attachment 9557

As you can see, your only population centers are located where the temperature range is closer to India

Sometimes, i am shocked about you about lacking knowledge on geography as educated IT guy, i remebered on previous dabate about road networks, you made an absurd comparison on the size map, and "let me see the clearly difference”



But in relality, the comparision on map size should be something like this (India is around 1/3 of China by land area):

 

[E-195]

Sometimes, i am shocked about you about lacking knowledge on geography as educated IT guy, i remebered on previous dabate about road networks, you made an absurd comparison on the size map, and "let me see the clearly difference”

View attachment 9588

But in relality, the comparision on map size should be something like this (India is around 1/3 of China by land area):

View attachment 9589

common Chinese perception of Geopolitics.

Some how you think destiny is in your side and the Chinese soul deserves world empire, you think some how all the tech transfers you recieved are your technologies, and you will some how surpass the West and the USA will rule either with you or without you.

But I will tell you something you do not understand.

Russia has two enemies, well only one Germany, in Europe Russia is the largest population and the best equipped army.

However the Germans are controlling Europe, Ukraine, the twin of Russia, if allied to Russia adds a very smart nation and Russia could achieve around 200 million people easily.

So the Germans had a plan, industrialize China so China`s appetite for natural resources and economic strength will ambition Siberia, Ukraine out of the Russian Sphere means a weaker Russia and since Russia has less than 30 million ethnic Russians in Siberia, the millions of Chinese and a very industrilized China will take Siberia from Russia and the Germans want Ukraine.

So what you will do as German? simple send Nixon to talk to China and send american factories and tech transfers, so China grows, while in the west encourage anti-Russian feelings.

and then collapse, Russia will collapse.

The Germans look down upon Chinese, and that is where you can not understand BRICS; Putin a genious saw that, however the Germans know Chinese are greedy people, India and China are not friends, same Russia and China.

So at the end once Russia collapses both India and Russia will join Germany and China will lose and the American empire will end.

 

[GaudaNaresh]

If you check this graph, the more closed to trophical area, the less high GDP nations. This is where 50% world GDP generated.

View attachment 9580





Again, let me post the "Hu Line" here.

Heihe–Tengchong Line - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

View attachment 9581

View attachment 9587




That's what i meant. Ur BP and UP have vast population but with lower per GDP and high temp, plus they have no seaport nearby. One Chennai is not enough.

View attachment 9582





Because they are developed, even for certain months it's hot, they have enough resouce for cooling system.

Singapore’s founding father thought air conditioning was the secret to his country’s success

Singapore’s founding father thought air conditioning was the secret to his country’s success

Vox is a general interest news site for the 21st century. Its mission: to help everyone understand our complicated world, so that we can all help shape it. In text, video and audio, our reporters explain politics, policy, world affairs, technology, culture, science, the climate crisis, money...

www.vox.com

China also has some hot weahter lasts for 1 or 2 months, but India lasted almost a quarter or even more.

2024 Indian heat wave - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

You should know that, in any modern industry, hot temp is the killer for machine's precious on operating, and coolinig system cost would be crucial part of total cost if you desgined for full time.

Plus, India is lack of stable power grid and cheap energy resource like gas and oil. If setting up a factory, workig condition both on manchine and employee always be a big factor.

This is my lab, this summer the temp was also 35 degree something, since the place is 12 meter's high, we counldn't install any cooling system as whole on industry level, if so we need to spend half million of USD.

The only solution was we building studio inside, but still spent lots of many on home-use level ACs and contruction on studios.

View attachment 9583

View attachment 9584

View attachment 9585

View attachment 9586


This is why i think as the global warning is trend, and India suffered more than other places with massive population, any manufactures would cost more and more, might be India would never get any cost competitiveness over China even you have more population and lower salary, finally low manufacture means low GDP.

That's my point, welcome to debate.

1. Throughout human history, the subtropical zone = zone of high temperature and humitidy = home to 75% of world's GDP, true till 1850s

2. China south of the Yangtze River is the same climate zone as most of Northern India ( Humid Subtropical and Monsoon influenced Humid Subtropica, aka Cwa and Cfa on coppen climate classification.
Shanghai and Delhi have pretty much similar climate profiles for most of the year, fyi.

Furthermore, this zone has been the main GDP producer of China since the An Lushan rebellion and the precipitation of massive Han migrations south of the Yangtze. Even today, this zone produces over 12 trillion of the 18-19 trillion that is Chinese economy.

3. High temperature = higher cooling needs = irrelevant to manufacturing, given that outside of semiconductor fabrication, any temperature below 75C = largely irrelevant.

And since vast majority of Chinese manufacturing is in the same heat conditions as vast majority of the Indian subcontinent, its not a relevant comparison factor.

PS: FYi, i am from Kolkata, the few times i've been to Shanghai, it very much felt like being in Kolkata at similar times of the year as well.

 

[rockdog]

View: https://x.com/Kanthan2030/status/1835775169790374221?t=p49DSk57ZRcHfdjpDZOVIQ&s=19

 

[Azaad]

View: https://x.com/Kanthan2030/status/1835775169790374221?t=p49DSk57ZRcHfdjpDZOVIQ&s=19

Back in DFI , you & your colleague from the MSS sexychineselady posted infomemes news reports & tweets multiple times daily of Huawei's latest cell phone & laptop powered by 5nm & 7nm SMC which was more than a year ago.

Now you come with a tweet of an Indian Wumao that China's going to fabricate 8 nm SMC using Chinese DUV lithographic machines which raises the question - were you lying then or are you lying now ?

 

[rockdog]

Back in DFI , you & your colleague from the MSS sexychineselady posted infomemes news reports & tweets multiple times daily of Huawei's latest cell phone & laptop powered by 5nm & 7nm SMC which was more than a year ago.

Now you come with a tweet of an Indian Wumao that China's going to fabricate 8 nm SMC using Chinese DUV lithographic machines which raises the question - were you lying then or are you lying now ?

China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) recently announced a major technological breakthrough: the development of a deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography machine capable of producing chips of 8 nanometers and below. This technology is currently being promoted for wider application.


View: https://x.com/rosti_rastelli/status/1835807880521384432?t=04E_Tr30Fg3TvLBHf2RdHg&s=19


View: https://x.com/Strugglebo72605/status/1835711233988894762?t=JXmErP_-4UFoicGV4z6Bcw&s=19

 

[Azaad]

China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) recently announced a major technological breakthrough: the development of a deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography machine capable of producing chips of 8 nanometers and below. This technology is currently being promoted for wider application.


View: https://x.com/rosti_rastelli/status/1835807880521384432?t=04E_Tr30Fg3TvLBHf2RdHg&s=19


View: https://x.com/Strugglebo72605/status/1835711233988894762?t=JXmErP_-4UFoicGV4z6Bcw&s=19

What's this all about then ?

Huawei teardown shows 5-nm chip made in Taiwan, not China

Huawei’s newest laptop runs on a chip made by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co, a teardown of the device showed, quashing talk of another Chinese technological breakthrough.

www.scmp.com

..and this ?

Huawei’s Pura 70 smartphone contains new 7-nm HiSilicon chip made by SMIC

Huawei’s new Pura 70 smartphones, powered by a chip designed by its in-house unit HiSilicon, are set to help the Shenzhen-based tech champion regain the top position in China’s smartphone market.

www.scmp.com

 

[Azaad]

China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) recently announced a major technological breakthrough: the development of a deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography machine capable of producing chips of 8 nanometers and below. This technology is currently being promoted for wider application.


View: https://x.com/rosti_rastelli/status/1835807880521384432?t=04E_Tr30Fg3TvLBHf2RdHg&s=19


View: https://x.com/Strugglebo72605/status/1835711233988894762?t=JXmErP_-4UFoicGV4z6Bcw&s=19

Here's ASML which has come out with a new class of extreme Lithography Machines - the
High NA EUV capable of etching 8 nm SMC nodes which they've recently shipped to Intel.

Now these High NA EUV are 2 generations ahead of ASML DUV lithography machines you're using or the COPIES you have now come up with. You think you can achieve 8 nm nodes on it ?

Perhaps you can with abysmal yields which in itself isn't bad but you'd require plenty of time to refine your processes to get better yields & more importantly you'd have to come up with your own EUV followed by your own High NA EUV fast enough if you want to catch up soon with your competitors.

5 things you should know about High NA in EUV

Bringing you the what, why and how behind the latest extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems

www.asml.com

 

[rockdog]

1. Throughout human history, the subtropical zone = zone of high temperature and humitidy = home to 75% of world's GDP, true till 1850s

2. China south of the Yangtze River is the same climate zone as most of Northern India ( Humid Subtropical and Monsoon influenced Humid Subtropica, aka Cwa and Cfa on coppen climate classification.
Shanghai and Delhi have pretty much similar climate profiles for most of the year, fyi.

Furthermore, this zone has been the main GDP producer of China since the An Lushan rebellion and the precipitation of massive Han migrations south of the Yangtze. Even today, this zone produces over 12 trillion of the 18-19 trillion that is Chinese economy.

3. High temperature = higher cooling needs = irrelevant to manufacturing, given that outside of semiconductor fabrication, any temperature below 75C = largely irrelevant.

And since vast majority of Chinese manufacturing is in the same heat conditions as vast majority of the Indian subcontinent, its not a relevant comparison factor.

PS: FYi, i am from Kolkata, the few times i've been to Shanghai, it very much felt like being in Kolkata at similar times of the year as well.

Yes, the vibe of Kolkata is pretty like Shanghai and Bombay like HK.

The Kolkata and Bombay will surely grow as mega cities, they were always the best business hub in subcontinent.

But the real problem will be BP and UP and other northern Pradeshes. After hot temp kills manufactures, the another killing factor is the transportiton.

China spent 70 yrs to connect all the populous ares by well maintained rivers and canals. As we know the river transportation only cost 5% than road and railway transportation.

Yangzte river has 17 times more transportation on tonnage than the Rhine River, the 1st inner river in the world.

Inside 3000KM away from the coastal line city Shanghai, it still would handling 10,000-ton ship.



ChongQing city, 3000KM away from coastal line.





Wuhan City, 1800KM away from coastal line.







50km away from costal line, Shanghai




Yangshan port, Shanghai, biggest port in the world, 50km away from Yangtze river



Lots Chinese 055 destroyers, 003 Fujian AC, was actually made in Yangtze River，20km away from ocean.







This is why any industrial products, from inner area of China, would directly export (import of couse) to any ocean with extremely low cost.



If you check the "Hu Line" map again, China used 70 yrs connecting river networks to cover most areas.

 

[rockdog]

Here's ASML which has come out with a new class of extreme Lithography Machines - the
High NA EUV capable of etching 8 nm SMC nodes which they've recently shipped to Intel.

Now these High NA EUV are 2 generations ahead of ASML DUV lithography machines you're using or the COPIES you have now come up with. You think you can achieve 8 nm nodes on it ?

Perhaps you can with abysmal yields which in itself isn't bad but you'd require plenty of time to refine your processes to get better yields & more importantly you'd have to come up with your own EUV followed by your own High NA EUV fast enough if you want to catch up soon with your competitors.

5 things you should know about High NA in EUV

Bringing you the what, why and how behind the latest extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems

www.asml.com

1. Making the first atomic bomb is sicenticfic issue, but making the 2nd -1000th atomic bomb is just engineering issue. That's why China in 1964 and India in 1974 made them were not that hard. Same applies to DUV and EUV, once China handle all the supply chain of Lithography Machines on DUV, it will be pretty "easy", just upgrade them version by version and finally reach to EUV.

2. Most current chip applications, except SoC on top mobile phone, 8nm and below are enough. China would use the machines to make 8mn and below to accumulate enough profits for further Lithography Machines R&D.

3. Just in booming EV industry, 70% of vechicle chips (IGBT and other sensors) are still still provided by oversea brands, there are lots of spaces for growth, China locally will buy huge amount of Chinese Lithography Machines to take the share from forgein chip makers.

4. Huge demand on local chip built-in, since we export huge on Mobile phone, TV, EVs. Plus the with high export growth along.

With a total export value of $62 billion since January, China's semiconductor exports have grown 21.2% year-over-year. Beyond just chips, China's computer and computer component export value has increased 6.1% year-over-year in the same period.

China's chip exports are booming but may be nearing overcapacity, stoking fears of chip glut — SMIC revenues rise as profits fall

China's modest chip market growth is...less than promising.

www.tomshardware.com

5. I think the reason why Huawei's high profile of launching its tri-foldable mobile phone, in the SAME DAY of Apple iPhone 16, shows that Huawei is not afraid of sanction on chips from US governmenbt.

Huawei launched the $2,800 trifold Mate XT, securing 5 million pre-orders in its debut week. This coincided with Apple's iPhone 16 launch, which struggled in China. The main reason was the lack of Apple Intelligence services there. Additionally, iPhone sales dropped by 10% in the first quarter of 2024.


View: https://x.com/PaulKforPres/status/1833655963493998823?t=fvUNgMF7ySIOk_9Uuo5skA&s=19

 

[Azaad]

1. Making the first atomic bomb is sicenticfic issue, but making the 2nd -1000th atomic bomb is just engineering issue. That's why China in 1964 and India in 1974 made them were not that hard. Same applies to DUV and EUV, once China handle all the supply chain of Lithography Machines on DUV, it will be pretty "easy", just upgrade them version by version and finally reach to EUV.

2. Most current chip applications, except SoC on top mobile phone, 8nm and below are enough. China would use the machines to make 8mn and below to accumulate enough profits for further Lithography Machines R&D.

3. Just in booming EV industry, 70% of vechicle chips (IGBT and other sensors) are still still provided by oversea brands, there are lots of spaces for growth, China locally will buy huge amount of Chinese Lithography Machines to take the share from forgein chip makers.

4. Huge demand on local chip built-in, since we export huge on Mobile phone, TV, EVs. Plus the with high export growth along.

China's chip exports are booming but may be nearing overcapacity, stoking fears of chip glut — SMIC revenues rise as profits fall

China's modest chip market growth is...less than promising.

www.tomshardware.com

5. I think the reason why Huawei's high profile of launching its tri-folder mobile phone, in the SAME DAY of Apple iPhone 16, shows that Huawei is not afraid of sanction on chips from US governmenbt.


View: https://x.com/PaulKforPres/status/1833655963493998823?t=fvUNgMF7ySIOk_9Uuo5skA&s=19

There's just one issue. You'd have to develop it on your own coz you can't copy it nor will you have access to those blue prints like that of the bomb the Russians gave you along with the materials & tools required to build them like you'd later do to Pakistan

A good example of it is the J-7 where the Russians gave you incomplete shop drawings & documentation & it took you more than 2 decades to get it right. In the bargain you certainly learnt a lot , enginnering the best version of the MiG -21 which in large part was also due to western consultancy & avionics.

Our first N bomb was of an extremely low yield as was to be expected. We didn't have any support & learnt everything on our own thru trial & error.

If you think just because you've reverse engineered an ASML DUV lithography machine , you've arrived , congratulations. Come back here when you successfully churn out millions of 8 nm SMC nodes with yields matching your international competitors like TSMC , Samsung etc.

Besides those supply chains are also embargoed as far as you're concerned which means you develop everything in house.