Fair points on Ukraine being responsible for triggering this war in the first place. But you can't deny Russians leapt at the chance of getting more land and warm water ports. While NATO is at fault for endlessly testing Russia's patience and using every trick to provoke Russia, Russians themselves leapt at the opportunity. Russia has always wanted it's former satellite states to remain under it's influence. And this is how a SMO turns into occupation. You can skip over the democracy bit, because Russia itself is anything but. Russians chimped out because their sphere of influence was shrinking. And after Crimea, Ukraine wanted security guarantees. And it's always the case that these Eastern Europeans countries like to lean towards the west for economic reasons.
Now, the Ukrainian leadership is so corrupt they figured they could make easy money by kissing the feet of NATO/US, let NATO take care of their security, and get subsidies by joining the EU. Obviously didn't fly. But Russia itself launched this SMO with vague stated goals. Their real goal has always been to teach Ukraine a lesson for disobeying Russia's sphere of influence. Either by massive destruction of Ukrainian infra and land seizure, or forcing them to come to the negotiation table with their heads sunk low and basically get fuck all for signing a "peace treaty". Now you and I can keep arguing when did this really began, 2022, 2014 or right after 1991 ? But for the Ukrainian people this land grab and perpetually living in the shadow of a volatile antagonistic superpower is unacceptable. Now we can keep memeing about how Ukrainians fucked around and now they are finding out and reaping what they sowed. But this has frankly gone too far, and Russians being opportunistic scumbags are quite happy to salami slice Ukraine for another 5-6 years in trench warfare. The "reparations" Russia is exacting here, is disproportionate to Ukraine's original follies. Russians already won the cake. Now they want more cream. Will this end with Ukraine ceding the lost territories ? No. Russia also wants Ukraine to disarm, never join NATO or EU, and neuter their foreign policies. For any country this is unacceptable. Hence I called it the modern equivalent of the Treaty of Versailles.
Every country in the region, save for maybe Belarus annd Hungary, dislike Russia. NATO isn't walking into the region uninvited, these countries want to join NATO, EU, the western sphere of economic heft and diplomatic pull. You think Ukraine will remain neutral towards Russia after this war concludes ? NATO will roll into the neighbourhood sooner or later in some capacity. And Russians will have to live with the fact that none of it's western neighbours like it very much.
Russians should've ended this war already by annexing the land. They are sticking around just to see the end of Ukraine thoroughly. They won't accept any peace deals. Their claims are so outrageous it's tantamount to national suicide for the other side. They know they are doing irreversible damage to Ukraine's demographic. Regardless, Russians have more or less won this conflict. There is no feasible way for AFU to regain the lost territories unless a multi-national cooalition commits troops and hardware to the frontline. Which these malicious spineless shitstain Europeans won't do. Americans are winding down their support within the next financial year. But I expect a low intensity war to keep going for another few years with limited European assistance. Zelensky came this far, denied national elections, if he stops now he won't live much longer. Since Ukrainians are going to be deported from a few countries, the supply line of conscripts won't dry up soon in a limited conflict. You can disagree with my arguements, and that is perfectly fine and might even be reasonable.
