Electronics and Semiconductor Manufacturing Industry

[FalconSlayers]

And it begins...
Will require $22+ billion of investment (Total $33-35 billion for the 3 phases)

 

[Azaad]

And it begins...
Will require $22+ billion of investment.
View attachment 9535

Sincerely hope they're planning for 14nm & above SMCs in these phases if not 7 nm .

 

[FalconSlayers]

Sincerely hope they're planning for 14nm & above SMCs in these phases if not 7 nm .

They actually are. Posted in initial pages of this thread.

TEPL will go down to 14nm chips
View attachment 1027

13 Nanotube Manufacturers in 2024 | Metoree

This section provides an overview for nanotubes as well as their applications and principles. Also, please take a look at the list of 13 nanotube manufacturers and their company rankings.

us.metoree.com

As per this article from this year, out of the 13 OEMs listed , 3 are Indian & 2 figure in the top 10 list by way of percentage of global market share.

That's some achievement & it completely evaded the radar.

Spoiler

View attachment 1028

 

[Azaad]

They actually are. Posted in initial pages of this thread.

Yes , as of now that's the minimum size we have been permitted to go down to. Was hoping the lower limit would've been relaxed to 12nm or even 10nm . Hopefully it'd be so at the earliest.

 

[concard]

Sincerely hope they're planning for 14nm & above SMCs in these phases if not 7 nm .

First let us conquer the lower end of the semiconductor market which is 50%. Nearly 50% of all chips used in applications other than PCs, smart phones, servers are made on 28nm, 45nm, 65nm, and even 90nm node. Once you conquer this lower end of the market, we can go for 14nm. We need to play the long term game here. Recently, Intel received their advanced NA-EUV machine from ASML. They are preparing to make chips beyond 2nm. I believe TSMC will receive the same machine soon. This means EUV machines which are used to make 7nm machines will be up for sale or we can buy the new ones from ASML directly.

It is only after having the experience to make 28nm chips and 14nm chips, we can go for 7nm. Because right now we simply don't have the technology. Let's learn to make chips and let us run a fab profitably first. Without a business case, there won't be much progress. And most importantly although we claim to have 20% design talent in India, we still have no fully Indian designed chip. Designing a chip is an art in itself. Look at Samsung, they have a fab to make chips and they also have a design talent. They make Exynos chip which goes into their flagship smartphones. Yet, Exynos chips come nowhere near Qualcomm or Apple's chips when it comes to performance. And both these companies Qualcomm and Apple are pure fabless companies. Apple's M series chips which are being used now in their Macbooks and iPads deliver insane performance.

We need to play around with CPU designs and perfect the art of designing chips. We are already reaching the limits of Silicon. I don't think transistor size can shrink forever. We just need to stay in the race and keep making affordable chips. Achieve complete dominance on the 50% market first, then we will be confident to climb higher.

 

[Azaad]

It is only after having the experience to make 28nm chips and 14nm chips, we can go for 7nm

Thanks for the detailed post . However , my query was in a different context unrelated to experience & expertise gained thru such experience.

Around 2021-22 , Saurav Jha in his tweets mentioned that there was a consensus lead by the US to restrict technology to India in the field of SMCs to 28 nm .

He's repeated this claim on Twitter then & on his Indigenous Appreciation Hour ( IAH) , a Q&A program he hosts .

Subsequently Modi attended the Quad meet in 2022, the first such session post COVID. Immediately after that there were rumours one of the organizations seeking permission to establish fabs in India would go in for a 14 nm SMC fab which was later confirmed by Saurav Jha.

There was some speculation it'd be the Tata Group . However back then there was little to no information in the public domain which even suggested the Tata group was interested in Fabs. Electronics yes , not fabs.

I was just wondering aloud if there's been any change in policies especially since the principle fabs around the world will soon be getting into 1 nm territory.

Btw - as far as the higher end of the fab market goes , China's planning to flood the world with > 7 nm SMCs. They've a huge electronics industrial ecosystem & market which will definitely be boosted by their own indigenous SMCs powering these electronics.

So it's not going to be easy for us not to mention it's a race against time for the sooner we set up such fabs here the sooner the decoupling from China can happen by western companies & we're in business

 

[concard]

Thanks for the detailed post . However , my query was in a different context unrelated to experience & expertise gained thru such experience.

Around 2021-22 , Saurav Jha in his tweets mentioned that there was a consensus lead by the US to restrict technology to India in the field of SMCs to 28 nm .

He's repeated this claim on Twitter then & on his Indigenous Appreciation Hour ( IAH) , a Q&A program he hosts .

Subsequently Modi attended the Quad meet in 2022, the first such session post COVID. Immediately after that there were rumours one of the organizations seeking permission to establish fabs in India would go in for a 14 nm SMC fab which was confirmed by Saurav Jha.

I was just wondering aloud if there's been any change in policies especially since the principle fabs around the world will soon be getting into 1 nm territory.

Don't think that information is true. China is allowed to buy DUV machines directly from ASML without sanctions. These DUV machines are capable of churning out 14nm chips. Why would they allow China to make 14nm chips and restrict India to 28nm chips?

 

[Azaad]

Don't think that information is true. China is allowed to buy DUV machines directly from ASML without sanctions. These DUV machines are capable of churning out 14nm chips. Why would they allow China to make 14nm chips and restrict India to 28nm chips?

I wouldn't dismiss S Jha out of hand . He's a reliable source. Besides the west's already created a China which they're deeply regretting today. What makes you think they'd want to repeat the same mistake with India ?

 

[concard]

I wouldn't dismiss S Jha out of hand . He's a reliable source. Besides the west's already created a China which they're deeply regretting today. What makes you think they'd want to repeat the same mistake with India ?

ASML makes lot of DUV machines. Since they are not allowed to export anything advanced other than DUV, where will these machines go? Yes, China is one country they sell to. If they want to miss out on India, no problem. Both Nikon and Canon make DUV machines. They will just step in.

Canon in talks with Indian, global players to supply chip making machine

Canon is exploring partnerships with Indian and global players for semiconductor lithography equipment essential in chip fabrication, aiming to challenge ASML. The company is in talks with semiconductor firms investing in India, including Tata Group and PSMC. Canon also launched Canon Medical...

economictimes.indiatimes.com

Having said that, with China it's not just they have grown big. They have now become geopolitical rival for US. If US was so worried about advanced technology falling into the hands of their rivals, why would they allow Taiwan to become a semiconductor manufacturing giant? After all, Taiwanese are Han Chinese. And most TSMC employees have been lured by China to work for them in their fabs in the last few years. Every 4 years or 8 years, leadership changes in US. We can't expect consistent policies from them. Who would have thought we would have got nuclear deal from them outside of NSG? It is all a balancing act. Right now, they want to tame the Panda. It has grown too big for it's cage. And the Panda no longer wants to be constrained by first island chain.

When a country becomes too important for their economy, or they are someone who is in their sphere of influence, they are careful not to upset them. India is a source of skilled manpower for many American companies. It is slowly dawning on them, they can't treat India like how Bill Clinton did. All these sanctions after cold war started with him. In fact democrats have been the biggest Anti-India assholes. They always been China lovers. They are the one who facilitated China into WTO. You can pacify Republicans by buying from goods from US but demorats want nothing short of your soul.

 

[Azaad]

ASML makes lot of DUV machines. Since they are not allowed to export anything advanced other than DUV, where will these machines go? Yes, China is one country they sell to. If they want to miss out on India, no problem. Both Nikon and Canon make DUV machines. They will just step in.

Canon in talks with Indian, global players to supply chip making machine

Canon is exploring partnerships with Indian and global players for semiconductor lithography equipment essential in chip fabrication, aiming to challenge ASML. The company is in talks with semiconductor firms investing in India, including Tata Group and PSMC. Canon also launched Canon Medical...

economictimes.indiatimes.com

I can't tell whether I haven't been able to articulate my point well or you haven't understood what I wanted to convey.

The issue isn't technology per se , it's the generation of technology being shared which is the key . Just to cite an analogy . Today France is interested in sharing tech for a price of course in enabling India to master the technology to design develop & mfg our own Turbofans. Ditto in case of UK & US as far as sharing ToT goes with India.

However the French are also hard at work developing the next gen TFs to power the 6th Gen SCAF which should be in place by the end of the next decade at par with the ADVENT / AETP class of TFs the US is developing for their 6th Gen FA - the NGAD program & what RR is developing for the GCAP program.

What all these countries will be sharing with is is yesterday's technology not tomorrow's technology. Arguably I've seen tweets saying that's the reason for the delay in our JV with France or whomsoever we choose to partner us in developing the TF for AMCA Mk-2.

We want what SAFRAN's developing for SCAF or at least access to it while the French aren't interested in sharing any such advanced technology.

This isn't about banning China but greatly undermining it's abilities to catch up with the west namely the US & thereby enable the US to maintain its lead in technical & of course its hegemony.

Extend the same analogy to India now & replace generation for nodes of SMC & see what's happening to China as a cautionary tale from our PoV.

Having said that, with China it's not just they have grown big. They have now become geopolitical rival for US.

If US was so worried about advanced technology falling into the hands of their rivals, why would they allow Taiwan to become a semiconductor manufacturing giant? After all, Taiwanese are Han Chinese.

Taiwan is firmly under the thumb of the US. Moreover Taiwan is merely a cog in the entire global SMC eco system albeit a big cog but do tell , apart from owning the biggest fab what else do they exercise full control over in the global SMC eco system ?

Those lithography machines used to etch the wafers are sourced externally so too other VITAL aspects of the entire supply chain. China's different in that it obviously isn't under the US's security umbrella but it also seeks to replace it & what's more they seek to duplicate the entire SMC ecosystem within China.

And most TSMC employees have been lured by China to work for them in their fabs in the last few years.

The question should be framed thus - would it be enough to tilt the balance in favour of China in the chips war going on ? I don't think so for if that was the case , you'd see the US in action preventing such moves.

Every 4 years or 8 years, leadership changes in US. We can't expect consistent policies from them.

Please underestimate the deep state in the US at your own peril.

Who would have thought we would have got nuclear deal from them outside of NSG?

You've answered your own question below

It is all a balancing act. Right now, they want to tame the Panda. It has grown too big for it's cage. And the Panda no longer wants to be constrained by first island chain.

When a country becomes too important for their economy, or they are someone who is in their sphere of influence, they are careful not to upset them. India is a source of skilled manpower for many American companies. It is slowly dawning on them, they can't treat India like how Bill Clinton did. All these sanctions after cold war started with him. In fact democrats have been the biggest Anti-India assholes. They always been China lovers. They are the one who facilitated China into WTO. You can pacify Republicans by buying from goods from US but demorats want nothing short of your soul.

I'd recommed reading this wonderful article I've linked below for a comprehensive understanding of the US China Chips war .

A New Era for the Chinese Semiconductor Industry: Beijing Responds to Export Controls - American Affairs Journal

China’s domestic semiconductor industry landscape has changed considerably. The Biden administration has continued to impose export control restrictions on Chinese firms, and the October 7, 2022, package of controls targeted not only advanced semiconductors (such as GPUs used for running...

americanaffairsjournal.org

 

[concard]

I can't tell whether I haven't been able to articulate my point well or you haven't understood what I wanted to convey.

The issue isn't technology per se , it's the generation of technology being shared which is the key . Just to cite an analogy . Today France is interested in sharing tech for a price of course in enabling India to master the technology to design develop & mfg our own Turbofans. Ditto in case of UK & US as far as sharing ToT goes with India.

However the French are also hard at work developing the next gen TFs to power the 6th Gen SCAF which should be in place by the end of the next decade at par with the ADVENT / AETP class of TFs the US is developing for their 6th Gen FA - the NGAD program & what RR is developing for the GCAP program.

What all these countries will be sharing with is is yesterday's technology not tomorrow's technology. Arguably I've seen tweets saying that's the reason for the delay in our JV with France or whomsoever we choose to partner us in developing the TF for AMCA Mk-2.

We want what SAFRAN's developing for SCAF or at least access to it while the French aren't interested in sharing any such advanced technology.

This isn't about banning China but greatly undermining it's abilities to catch up with the west namely the US & thereby enable the US to maintain its lead in technical & of course its hegemony.

Extend the same analogy to India now & replace generation for nodes of SMC & see what's happening to China as a cautionary tale from our PoV.





Taiwan is firmly under the thumb of the US. Moreover Taiwan is merely a cog in the entire global SMC eco system albeit a big cog but do tell , apart from owning the biggest fab what else do they exercise full control over in the global SMC eco system ?

Those lithography machines used to etch the wafers are sourced externally so too other VITAL aspects of the entire supply chain. China's different in that it obviously isn't under the US's security umbrella but it also seeks to replace it & what's more they seek to duplicate the entire SMC ecosystem within China.



The question should be framed thus - would it be enough to tilt the balance in favour of China in the chips war going on ? I don't think so for if that was the case , you'd see the US in action preventing such moves.



Please underestimate the deep state in the US at your own peril.



You've answered your own question below




I'd recommed reading this wonderful article I've linked below for a comprehensive understanding of the US China Chips war .

A New Era for the Chinese Semiconductor Industry: Beijing Responds to Export Controls - American Affairs Journal

China’s domestic semiconductor industry landscape has changed considerably. The Biden administration has continued to impose export control restrictions on Chinese firms, and the October 7, 2022, package of controls targeted not only advanced semiconductors (such as GPUs used for running...

americanaffairsjournal.org

To put it shortly, why should anyone share cutting edge technology with others when they have put lot of resources and time into developing it? There are certain technologies which will never be shared. GE promised full ToT with F414 Engine with blessings of US government. I knew it was all BS. Recently, it has only been confirmed. I am not saying to underestimate US deep state.

Let's put up a face with US. Hey look, we are on your side. We have no intention to replace you or your system you imposed on the world. We just want to do business. This is what the Chinese did more or less until Xi flexed few years ago. I say we should do the same and get what we want. Americans are already pissed that despite nuclear deal, their companies have not got any benefit in the form of building nuclear plants in India. I don't think there is anything here which should surprise us. No one will share cutting edge tech which is only possessed by handful of countries in the world.

They denied us cryogenic engine tech, we developed it on our own. I think we should do the same with technologies such as Jet Engine, Nuclear submarines, Lithographic machines etc. We have no choice but to develop it on our own.

 

[TopWatcher]

To put it shortly, why should anyone share cutting edge technology with others when they have put lot of resources and time into developing it? There are certain technologies which will never be shared. GE promised full ToT with F414 Engine with blessings of US government. I knew it was all BS. Recently, it has only been confirmed. I am not saying to underestimate US deep state.

Let's put up a face with US. Hey look, we are on your side. We have no intention to replace you or your system you imposed on the world. We just want to do business. This is what the Chinese did more or less until Xi flexed few years ago. I say we should do the same and get what we want. Americans are already pissed that despite nuclear deal, their companies have not got any benefit in the form of building nuclear plants in India. I don't think there is anything here which should surprise us. No one will share cutting edge tech which is only possessed by handful of countries in the world.

They denied us cryogenic engine tech, we developed it on our own. I think we should do the same with technologies such as Jet Engine, Nuclear submarines, Lithographic machines etc. We have no choice but to develop it on our own.

Shouldnt we now making Nuclear submarines on our own ?

 

[Azaad]

To put it shortly, why should anyone share cutting edge technology with others when they have put lot of resources and time into developing it?

Hence 14 nm as of now & smaller nodes would follow , as the US gets to the next level.

There are certain technologies which will never be shared. GE promised full ToT with F414 Engine with blessings of US government. I knew it was all BS. Recently, it has only been confirmed. I am not saying to underestimate US deep state.

Let's put up a face with US. Hey look, we are on your side. We have no intention to replace you or your system you imposed on the world. We just want to do business.

Once you get into the business if you're fairly competent you'd start developing your own talents & skillsets. That's bound to happen in our case as it has with the rest of East Asia. This then generates conflicts as Japan discovered in the early 1990s & China's discovered recently.

This is what the Chinese did more or less until Xi flexed few years ago.

The US was onto the Chinese quite early way back in 2001. Check on the 2001 Hainan incident . They wanted to cut the Chinese down to size right then . What disrupted their plans was a certain Arab named Bin Laden.

Then the Americans went beserk for nearly 2 decades before Trump refocused the US on China. He just doesn't get enough credit for it . Biden's merely following up in his footsteps , the same Biden who used to be called China Joe when he was the VP in Obummer's administration.

I say we should do the same and get what we want. Americans are already pissed that despite nuclear deal, their companies have not got any benefit in the form of building nuclear plants in India. I don't think there is anything here which should surprise us. No one will share cutting edge tech which is only possessed by handful of countries in the world.

Which is the reason I've stated earlier on they aren't going to make the same mistake twice.

They denied us cryogenic engine tech, we developed it on our own. I think we should do the same with technologies such as Jet Engine, Nuclear submarines, Lithographic machines etc. We have no choice but to develop it on our own.

We have to develop our own technologies & also beware of the US . They'd use every trick in their book to trip us ( they already are indulging in such activities today ) which includes preying on our fault lines of which we've plenty . On every front. Much much more than the Chinese.

 

[concard]

Shouldnt we now making Nuclear submarines on our own ?

We are making SSBN that is nuclear ballistic submarines but not the Nuclear attack submarines (SSN). Nuclear attack submarines requires slightly more advanced technology. I guess we will get there soon looking at the way we are churning out SSBNs.

 

[FalconSlayers]

 

[Aaj Ka Hero]

Someone here pointed out before that impurities in smaller nm chips make bigger nm chips, which companies then sell in the market.
He said something sort of, being Mechanical man, this was what I came to find out.

 

[TopWatcher]

We are making SSBN that is nuclear ballistic submarines but not the Nuclear attack submarines (SSN). Nuclear attack submarines requires slightly more advanced technology. I guess we will get there soon looking at the way we are churning out SSBNs.

I mean to say atleast we now building the submarine nuclear reactor .

 

[Aaj Ka Hero]

https://www.aninews.in/news/business/india-positions-itself-for-100-electronic-manufacturing-from-chips-to-finished-goods20240916104257/

 

[FalconSlayers]

View: https://x.com/technology/status/1835988225451610554

View: https://x.com/chandrarsrikant/status/1836006014983749886

 

[Blademaster]

View: https://x.com/technology/status/1835988225451610554

View: https://x.com/chandrarsrikant/status/1836006014983749886

Not a good sign. Lenovo is all Chinese but in name. This is a serious breach of national security.