Weak Pakistani Civil Government is open to Military Pressure
A weak civilian government in Pakistan, coupled with a jihadi-inclined military armed with second-rate Chinese weapons, is a strategic advantage for India’s assertive Prime Minister Modi and better modernized Indian armed forces. India can now strike Pakistani targets with pinpoint accuracy from within its own territory—something Pakistan is powerless to stop.
Since General Zia-ul-Haq overthrew Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto and had him executed on flimsy charges, Pakistan’s civilian leadership has been systematically undermined. Civilian governments became symbolic at best—elected through rigged processes, and quickly sidelined if they dared to challenge military dominance. Prime Ministers who resisted either ended up jailed, like Nawaz Sharif, or assassinated, like Benazir Bhutto. The military entrenched itself further, redirecting national resources toward arms procurement.
Initially reliant on U.S. military aid, Pakistan shifted toward Chinese suppliers after 2016. Though the Chinese provided $30 billion worth of weapons over the past decade, much of it consists of reverse-engineered, second-tier equipment. Pakistan accepted these deals gladly—few others would sell to them without upfront payment—while China benefited from a compliant buyer and strategic leverage against India.
Emboldened by this influx of hardware, the army tightened its grip on domestic politics. Civilian leaders were either imprisoned—like Imran Khan—or reduced to figureheads, like current PM Shebbaz Sharif. The only common ground between the military and political leadership remained a confrontational posture toward India, a tactic used to maintain internal legitimacy. To appease the generals, successive governments diverted funds from development to defence, weakening Pakistan’s economy.
Meanwhile, IMF loans—mostly backed by the U.S.—came with austerity demands that triggered soaring 40% inflation and shortages of essentials. Yet the government continued selling the dream of Islamic glory and victory over “kafir India,” masking the economic collapse.
Unaware or dismissive of India’s rapid strides under Modi in both economic and military realms, Pakistan miscalculated. The killing of 26 Indian civilians in Kashmir provoked a swift and overwhelming Indian military response across nine Pakistani targets on May7th. Chinese-supplied arms HQ-9 & PL-15, proved ineffective in defence.
Now, Pakistan finds itself strategically cornered, its only remaining card being nuclear posturing—a threat for which India is well prepared.