Pakistani Heartache Over India-China Border Agreement
Pakistan had initially celebrated the 2020 India-China standoff in Ladakh, seeing it as a geopolitical opportunity. For years, Pakistan had aligned itself with China, particularly after its relationship with the United States soured due to alleged duplicity in Afghanistan. This shift was not new—Pakistan had long relied on China for arms and economic support that the U.S. would no longer provide.
Central to this partnership was the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), hailed as a cornerstone of Pakistan’s economic future. However, the ambitious project has failed to deliver the prosperity it promised. The corridor’s route through the high-altitude Khunjerab Pass, at 13,000 feet, has proven impractical for large-scale trade. Furthermore, the project has faced resistance from local populations. The Baloch people, in particular, oppose it, and many Pakistanis feel alienated from its benefits. Adding to the discontent, Chinese laborers dominate the construction workforce, sidelining local employment—a source of resentment among the population.
The 2020 Galwan Valley clash between Indian and Chinese troops initially brought jubilation to Pakistan, as it seemed to align with their strategic interests. Pakistan’s military received a steady flow of Chinese hardware, fueling optimism. However, this aid came at a steep cost. With U.S. financial assistance cut off since 2016, Pakistan’s economy began to buckle under the weight of military and commercial debt. The need for imported raw materials and rising costs of servicing loans depleted Pakistan’s foreign reserves. Despite these economic strains, the military’s expenditures remained untouched. Political leaders who dared suggest reducing defense spending were swiftly silenced or removed from office.
Meanwhile, the India-China border standoff settled into an uneasy truce along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). Years of diplomatic and military negotiations brought limited progress. By October 2024, China finally agreed to withdraw to its pre-2020 positions in contested areas, marking a breakthrough for India. For Pakistan, however, the news was a bitter pill to swallow. The disengagement not only diminished Pakistan’s strategic hopes but also deepened its sense of betrayal, leaving the nation grappling with economic hardship and strained alliances.
If India-China relations continue to improve and China withdraws a significant portion of its military presence from the Line of Actual Control (LAC), it could pave the way for stronger bilateral ties. This progress is likely to extend to trade relations and reduce unnecessary competition in the Indian Ocean Region—welcome news for Indian strategic planners. With fewer tensions on the northern border, India can focus on expanding trade and military partnerships with East Asian countries, a positive development for both India’s economy and its geopolitical influence.
However, what is good news for India is often seen as bad news in Pakistan. Economic growth in India, particularly its emergence as a global power, is viewed with concern in Pakistan. Improved security along the China border would allow India to channel resources into modernizing its military—another development that unsettles Pakistan. For a country already struggling with economic and strategic challenges, India’s ascent represents a growing source of anxiety.