Germany

I talked recently to one of my buddies in Germany who has lost his job. He has 10 years of experience and yet he can't get a single interview. The situation is worse than what is shown in the media. Long ago when I was there I bought chicken for 2.5 Euros. Now the same chicken he says goes for 7 Euros. I was shocked to say the least. Literally, everyone is complaining that their paycheck doesn't leave them with anything at the end of the day. Energy prices are through the roof. Food prices have gone up. But wages have not changed. No shit German company SAP built a huge campus in North Bengaluru to create 10,000 jobs while cutting 15,000 jobs at home. They are looking to preserve margins.

We are now looking at a major European economy slowly losing it's sheen. All their industries can no longer compete globally. I believe this is the right time for India to step in and take what is on the table which might be of value to us. I don't see Germany recovering before 2030 unless cheap natural gas starts flowing again. @shade2 made a excellent point in one of his comments. If this is the situation now imagine what happens when Chinese make a move on Taiwan. US will force everyone to impose sanctions. Germany has lot of dependence on China. Cutting this tap will trigger a massive collapse.
 
Biggest problem in western world is their insistence towards having strong reserve currencies, and I think that suits them well. Due to this their purchasing power in international market remains(ed) high as long as they have monopolies or competitiveness over things in demand globally and they could sell for inflated prices of their products in Euro to rest of the world. For example if there's a medicine that costs $60,000 per dose for a rare disease made by UK for example, they'll continue to produce it until India produces the same for $200 and floods the world with it. This is an extreme example but that's how their GDP size works. With the rise of Asia, especially China and South Korea, Japan, India the products and services on which they had monopoly are now mass produced/provided for cheap by Chinese and other Asian firms (cheap with respect to USD, EUR, GBP) and that ultimately started causing deindustrialisation in Europe. They chose to be "expensive" and still choose to. They can reverse it by devaluing their currencies because you obviously can't compete on price with Asia now. USA is the only exception here because the deep state plays smart. My 2 cents.
 
concard said:
Literally, everyone is complaining that their paycheck doesn't leave them with anything at the end of the day. Energy prices are through the roof. Food prices have gone up. But wages have not changed. No shit German company SAP built a huge campus in North Bengaluru to create 10,000 jobs while cutting 15,000 jobs at home. They are looking to preserve margins.
Click to expand...

There are other anecdotes, German Chemicals major BASF is building a huge plant in China to rival it's current largest plant in Ludwigshafen( also their HQ ), Germany, meanwhile they are cutting jobs at the aforementioned Ludwigshafen plant

economictimes.indiatimes.com

As US tries to isolate China, German companies move closer

The Biden administration is working to make the US more competitive with China by expanding its infrastructure and manufacturing over negotiating new trade deals.
economictimes.indiatimes.com economictimes.indiatimes.com


I once saw a documentary about high gas and electricity prices are making life hard for ceramics companies in Germany, one was about the bathtub/wash-basin/commode type of ceramics and the other was of plates, bowls type of ceramics, both examples that they showed were planning to move to East European countries, Turkey or China because energy is cheaper in those countries, I don't know where this documentary was but googling shows up similar news reports

Four in Ten German Manufacturers Eye Move Abroad on Energy Costs​


 
FalconSlayers said:
Biggest problem in western world is their insistence towards having strong reserve currencies, and I think that suits them well. Due to this their purchasing power in international market remains(ed) high as long as they have monopolies or competitiveness over things in demand globally and they could sell for inflated prices of their products in Euro to rest of the world. For example if there's a medicine that costs $60,000 per dose for a rare disease made by UK for example, they'll continue to produce it until India produces the same for $200 and floods the world with it. This is an extreme example but that's how their GDP size works. With the rise of Asia, especially China and South Korea, Japan, India the products and services on which they had monopoly are now mass produced/provided for cheap by Chinese and other Asian firms (cheap with respect to USD, EUR, GBP) and that ultimately started causing deindustrialisation in Europe. They chose to be "expensive" and still choose to. They can reverse it by devaluing their currencies because you obviously can't compete on price with Asia now. USA is the only exception here because the deep state plays smart. My 2 cents.
Click to expand...

Devaluation of a currency is the anti-thesis to having it as an strong reserve currency. If the currency is devalued by the issuing country on regular basis then it ceases to be a reserve currency for countries who hold that currency in reserve. Imagine a country has 100 billion Euros in reserves. Suddenly out of nowhere if Eurozone devalues the currency by let's say 20%. That means the country holding 100 billion Euros is worth only 80 billion Euros now. Overnight purchasing power drops by 20 billion Euros. That's a net loss for the country holding Euros. They will automatically shift to other currencies and diversify their holdings.
 
shade2 said:
There are other anecdotes, German Chemicals major BASF is building a huge plant in China to rival it's current largest plant in Ludwigshafen( also their HQ ), Germany, meanwhile they are cutting jobs at the aforementioned Ludwigshafen plant

economictimes.indiatimes.com

As US tries to isolate China, German companies move closer

The Biden administration is working to make the US more competitive with China by expanding its infrastructure and manufacturing over negotiating new trade deals.
economictimes.indiatimes.com economictimes.indiatimes.com


I once saw a documentary about high gas and electricity prices are making life hard for ceramics companies in Germany, one was about the bathtub/wash-basin/commode type of ceramics and the other was of plates, bowls type of ceramics, both examples that they showed were planning to move to East European countries, Turkey or China because energy is cheaper in those countries, I don't know where this documentary was but googling shows up similar news reports

Four in Ten German Manufacturers Eye Move Abroad on Energy Costs​


Click to expand...

Exactly. They have slight edge in chemicals. Just like other industries they will also lose this industry gradually over time. Having said that BASF might have been planning to set up the plant in China for a long time I believe. I don't think it's a decision taken after Ukraine war began.
 
concard said:
Exactly. They have slight edge in chemicals. Just like other industries they will also lose this industry gradually over time. Having said that BASF might have been planning to set up the plant in China for a long time I believe. I don't think it's a decision taken after Ukraine war began.
Click to expand...

They have a host of MSMEs building specialist parts and machines that are collectively called Mittelstand

Once again in a documentary i saw about them was one company, family owned, making a certain turbine-blade like part.
Most of their customers were in China.
The patriarch of this company sadly says that one of these clients became their competitor one day 🤡, making the sem2sem part that they made for cheaper, now they are losing business to this customer-turned-competitor.

These guys are the ones who provide the parts and machines for Chings to be Factory of the World, but eventually chings will clone all their products and machines for the same quality, another part of the de industrialization of Germany/Europe.

For now the parts and lower end machines are China's preserve but the high end is of Germany, Japan and other gora countries, for how long this is so, remains to be seen.
 
shade2 said:
They have a host of MSMEs building specialist parts and machines that are collectively called Mittelstand

Once again in a documentary i saw about them was one company, family owned, making a certain turbine-blade like part.
Most of their customers were in China.
The patriarch of this company sadly says that one of these clients became their competitor one day 🤡, making the sem2sem part that they made for cheaper, now they are losing business to this customer-turned-competitor.

These guys are the ones who provide the parts and machines for Chings to be Factory of the World, but eventually chings will clone all their products and machines for the same quality, another part of the de industrialization of Germany/Europe.

For now the parts and lower end machines are China's preserve but the high end is of Germany, Japan and other gora countries, for how long this is so, remains to be seen.
Click to expand...

I lived and worked there for a significant part of my life. I have seen the good times in Germany. I have also seen the shit show when they prioritized short term profits. For example, when I lived there Germany had the largest Solar manufacturing company in the world in Freiberg, a small city in Eastern state of Saxony. One day Chinese hackers hit their servers and got everything on a platter. Literally all the R & D and manufacturing techniques were overnight gone. From 2010 Chinese Solar panels started flooding the EU. Germany bore the brunt of this dumping. They had a policy called "Energiewende". Under this policy they were to slowly shift to renewables.

Banks gave out loans to anyone who would put Solar panels above their rooftops. But the companies which were producing Solar panels could no longer compete with price from Solar panels imported from China. The company in Freiberg shut shop. This has happened to many companies in Germany. But they always sucked up to China for short term profits. Now the chickens are coming home to roast.
 
shade2 said:
Yes, MG Motors, Kuka industrial robotics, Volvo, Ducati etc were pimped out to China exactly in this way.

Meanwhile Tata had to sign a lot of T&C by the UK govt in exchange for buying JLR.
Click to expand...
UK gormint is not that strict with the Tatas anymore.
 
concard said:
I lived and worked there for a significant part of my life. I have seen the good times in Germany. I have also seen the shit show when they prioritized short term profits. For example, when I lived there Germany had the largest Solar manufacturing company in the world in Freiberg, a small city in Eastern state of Saxony. One day Chinese hackers hit their servers and got everything on a platter. Literally all the R & D and manufacturing techniques were overnight gone. From 2010 Chinese Solar panels started flooding the EU. Germany bore the brunt of this dumping. They had a policy called "Energiewende". Under this policy they were to slowly shift to renewables.

Banks gave out loans to anyone who would put Solar panels above their rooftops. But the companies which were producing Solar panels could no longer compete with price from Solar panels imported from China. The company in Freiberg shut shop. This has happened to many companies in Germany. But they always sucked up to China for short term profits. Now the chickens are coming home to roast.
Click to expand...
Is it SolarWorld case you are referring?
 
www.cer.eu

How German industry can survive the second China shock

China's industrial subsidies and aggressive export-led growth are undercutting German manufacturing. To defend its automotive and engineering sectors, Germany must finally get tough on China with trade and industrial policies.
www.cer.eu www.cer.eu

LMAO

Europeans should be more like Japan/Korea and stop whoring out their manufacturing to China for short term profit.
 
tommy said:
Is it SolarWorld case you are referring?
Click to expand...

Yes. The same company I am referring to. People right now who are in Mercedes who are pimping for China are doing so because Chinese now hold substantial stake in Mercedes. In fact China's BAIC hold the largest voting rights at 10% and another Chinese billionaire also holds stake in Mercedes. If that isn't enough they have also pimped out their engine production to Chinese companies too. No wonder they are castigating German government for going hard on tariffs on Chinese cars.

www.team-bhp.com

Next-gen Mercedes CLA will get engine from Chinese brand Geely | Team-BHP

According to reports, the upcoming new-gen Mercedes-Benz CLA will be powered by an engine produced in China.The IC engine on the upcoming CLA will come in the form of a 2.0-litre four-cylinder manufactured ...
www.team-bhp.com www.team-bhp.com
 
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