Indian Economy

[Azaad]

Incompetence. Leaderji and PMOwallahs probably have a favorable view of disinvestment etc but the kind of state capacity just is not there in the DIPAM/FinMin (a clueless FM does not help either). Again, read this in addition to my post in the politics thread (where I claim that their capacity to undertake infra capex push is limited too - despite their generally sincere efforts).

Vajpayee did a terrific job but I prefer not to compare political realities of different timelines so refraining from making a direct comparison between him and ji.


That we would. Probably.

I mean what's the competence you require to disinvest or privatise & if so how did we have it then & lose it now ? Tbh , it doesn't make sense. If the FM isn't competent ,get another minister .

We had Arun Shourie look after this process then. We can get someone else now. Goel would make a good minister in charge of this portfolio or even Rajeev Chandrshekhar .

 

[shade2]

https://swarajyamag.com/economy/the-great-disruption-how-china-is-stalling-indias-industrial-ascent

The Great Disruption: How China Is Stalling India's Industrial Ascent​

View attachment 22233

>Chings refuse to ship equipment to India
>shipments have to be routed through 3rd countries
>Costs increase
>Dhandhos of both foreign and domestic types lobby gormint to drop duties on import of machines
>Or subsidize machine purchases
>L for Govt if they do either, L for private sector if govt does nothing
>India's "ranking" as a place to move your factory to drops even further viz Vietnam etc.

of course the thing here is if the Ching is doing this to India, they could do it also to Vietnam tomorrow, Hopefully W*stern dhandhos redouble their efforts to get out of China and not bendover further.

 

[ezsasa]

Does anyone know why's Modi not into disinvestment or privatization of PSUs ? Earlier it was the stock market was depressed or the courts put up roadblocks but one of the highlights of the ABV administration were precisely privatization & disinvestment on a massive scale going head on with the Sangh & its affiliates.

Had they been returned to power in 2004 , we'd probably have only a third of the PSU's we have today. Is this a real blind spot in his administration or a matter of ideology ?

@crazywithmath ; @ezsasa

they don't need to for now, original goal of disinvestment was to sell family silver every few years to make up for fiscal deficit. just before elections, RBI gave a dividend of 2 lakh crore, ABV time ministers would not have dreamed of such numbers.

India's fiscal deficit to shrink continuously amid strong tax revenues: World Bank

India's fiscal deficit is projected to shrink due to rising tax revenues, highlighting an improved fiscal position, according to a World Bank report. With expected GDP growth of 6.7% for FY2025-26 and FY2026-27, India's services and manufacturing sectors will see sustained expansion. However...

economictimes.indiatimes.com

 

[GodEmperorDoom]

Does anyone know why's Modi not into disinvestment or privatization of PSUs ? Earlier it was the stock market was depressed or the courts put up roadblocks but one of the highlights of the ABV administration were precisely privatization & disinvestment on a massive scale going head on with the Sangh & its affiliates.

Had they been returned to power in 2004 , we'd probably have only a third of the PSU's we have today. Is this a real blind spot in his administration or a matter of ideology ?

@crazywithmath ; @ezsasa

There’s also a significant public perception problem. I used to think that my fellow statesmen from the neighboring state, who share the same language, were more rational and wouldn’t resort to the usual zombie-like arguments of "Muh Privatization." But it turns out they’re parroting the same lines.

It’s a general lack of rational thought. If you ask them what the benefits are, they’ll say things like jobs, profits going to the government, or that privatization increases costs. They’ll even cite examples from Europe. Yet 99% of them don’t know what a furnace is or realize that we’re working with bottom-barrel resources while still importing specialty steels. If only this 10,000 crore had been allocated to a PLI scheme for that, at least we could have seen some real change.

There’s a saying that people only learn the lesson when they’re directly affected by the quality and service of the product themselves and until that they spew the same normie crap.

 

[shade2]

I mean what's the competence you require to disinvest or privatise & if so how did we have it then & lose it now ? Tbh , it doesn't make sense. If the FM isn't competent ,get another minister .

We had Arun Shourie look after this process then. We can get someone else now. Goel would make a good minister on charge of this portfolio or even Rajeev Chandrshekhar .

Does anyone know why's Modi not into disinvestment or privatization of PSUs ? Earlier it was the stock market was depressed or the courts put up roadblocks but one of the highlights of the ABV administration were precisely privatization & disinvestment on a massive scale going head on with the Sangh & its affiliates.

Had they been returned to power in 2004 , we'd probably have only a third of the PSU's we have today. Is this a real blind spot in his administration or a matter of ideology ?

@crazywithmath ; @ezsasa

Couple of reasons i can think of

>Political hot-potato
>Image as it is smeared by dogs barking ADANI ADANI every 5 seconds
>Nobody wants to buy PSUs, bade teer maar liye Tata ne by buying Air India, everyone sees this
>PSU Lobby via unions and all.

I am more in favor of reforming PSUs to make all employees and management work like private sector with clear goals and consequences for not meeting them, like the Chings do, but ofc that is much harder than just privatization

 

[GodEmperorDoom]

>Chings refuse to ship equipment to India
>shipments have to be routed through 3rd countries
>Costs increase
>Dhandhos of both foreign and domestic types lobby gormint to drop duties on import of machines
>Or subsidize machine purchases
>L for Govt if they do either, L for private sector if govt does nothing
>India's "ranking" as a place to move your factory to drops even further viz Vietnam etc.

of course the thing here is if the Ching is doing this to India, they could do it also to Vietnam tomorrow, Hopefully W*stern dhandhos redouble their efforts to get out of China and not bendover further.

Will Semi-Literate PM still wake up from his slumber and increase PLI to Machine Tool Industry. They can't expect to run every now and then to China or Japan Or Germany for them right? Gobhiji doesn't know stuff, but I hope they will learn their lesson in hard manner atleast now. They can't expect "Aatmanirbhar Bharat" without Machine Tool Industry or it becomes Assemblynirbhar Bharat.

 

[crazywithmath]

I mean what's the competence you require to disinvest or privatise & if so how did we have it then & lose it now ? Tbh , it doesn't make sense.

Vajpayee successfully went after a number of low hanging fruits but chickened out before touching the likes of BPCL, HPCL, NALCO, Air India, BEML etc. This is precisely why I was refraining from making a direct comparison.

If the FM isn't competent ,get another minister .

Tired of suggesting the same.

We had Arun Shourie look after this process then. We can get someone else now. Goel would make a good minister on charge of this portfolio or even Rajeev Chandrshekhar .

Ji/Shah started rewarding loyalty over performance quite a while back.

 

[ezsasa]

Couple of reasons i can think of

>Political hot-potato
>Image as it is smeared by dogs barking ADANI ADANI every 5 seconds
>Nobody wants to buy PSUs, bade teer maar liye Tata ne by buying Air India, everyone sees this
>PSU Lobby via unions and all.

I am more in favor of reforming PSUs to make all employees and management work like private sector with clear goals and consequences for not meeting them, like the Chings do, but ofc that is much harder than just privatization

this gormint is even expanding state capacity in some sectors.

SAIL is supplying specialist steel to build navy ships
NTPC is now a days building hydrogen plants
MIDHANI is developing titanium for AMCA.
BSNL using India 4G/5G stack equipment.
in 2015, gormint used EESL to bring down the market price of LED bulb to 1/4th with one big tender.
etc.

when competition was pakiland, this didn't matter much. but when it is cheen which is a state capitalist economy, GoI too needs to have state capacity in hand.

 

[crazywithmath]

Couple of reasons i can think of

>Political hot-potato
>Image as it is smeared by dogs barking ADANI ADANI every 5 seconds
>Nobody wants to buy PSUs, bade teer maar liye Tata ne by buying Air India, everyone sees this
>PSU Lobby via unions and all.

This gormint has done demo/GST/corporate tax cuts, cut OFB/railway PSUs (notorious for their unionbazi) in size, introduced agniveer in armed forces (politically sensitive in bimaruland and beyond) and handed out billions in incentives to dhandhos/'ebhil punjipatis' (through PLI, SPECS etc). Safe to assume that the political repercussions, although significant, are not the major factor.

 

[Suryavanshi]

Disinvestment is happening don't worry.

 

[shade2]

this gormint is even expanding state capacity in some sectors.

SAIL is supplying specialist steel to build navy ships
NTPC is now a days building hydrogen plants
MIDHANI is developing titanium for AMCA.
BSNL using India 4G/5G stack equipment.
in 2015, gormint used EESL to bring down the market price of LED bulb to 1/4th with one big tender.
etc.

when competition was pakiland, this didn't matter much. but when it is cheen which is a state capitalist economy, GoI too needs to have state capacity in hand.

Yes this is my point, most of the industrialization chad moves have to happen by the Govt itself via PSUs that work like normal private companies, not employment generators for lazy people doing chai-biscoot as it is currently.

Later on any big "tech improvements" or other benefits from PSU heavy lifting can be passed on to private sector dhandhos

It is also why i support a Maruti Udyog style arrangement for a Semiconductor Fab in the country rather than giving massive PLIs for dhandhos who will do sub-optimal things like OSAT/ATMP plant or use mature nodes for their production.

 

[Suryavanshi]

@ezsasa


USA

 

[Aaj Ka Hero]

Does anyone know why's Modi not into disinvestment or privatization of PSUs ? Earlier it was the stock market was depressed or the courts put up roadblocks but one of the highlights of the ABV administration were precisely privatization & disinvestment on a massive scale going head on with the Sangh & its affiliates.

Had they been returned to power in 2004 , we'd probably have only a third of the PSU's we have today. Is this a real blind spot in his administration or a matter of ideology ?

@crazywithmath ; @ezsasa

I saw here people complaining how India despite big steel producer doesn't have quality to compete for prize market and also how STEEL CARTELS are being formed.
Well, government too can tighten the knoose and I hope this is the case.