Indian Economy

[haldilal]

Ya'll Nibbiars Contary to the belief the Alcohol consumption is decline in India.

 

[why so serious?]

Bumper Apple crop! India’s iPhone exports pass Rs 1 lk cr​

https://m.economictimes.com/news/ec...pass-rs-1-lk-cr/amp_articleshow/117181077.cms

 

[Cheepek]

~$102B deficit with China in the last calendar year



BTW, less export growth to India ~2.4%, as compared to ASEAN countries.

Who all are majorly responsible for Chinese trade surplus?
1. US- $361B
2. Hong Kong- $272.5B
3. EU- $247B
-Netherlands- $72.4B
4. India- $102.5B
5. Vietnam- $63B
6. Singapore- $48B
7. Thailand- $39B
8. Philippines- $33B

 

[Nibbler]

Not gonna happen until another black swan event. We are living in unprecedented times amidst huge uncertainty.

- The FED’ preferred metric PCE is back on the rise.
- The Jobs report is still coming in strong questioning the need for more rate cuts.
- The markets earlier priced in 5 rate cuts this year. Now the forecast is a max of 2 cuts with some banks (BofA) even ruling out.
- They foolishly started with a 50bps cut (instead of 25) and the stock markets had a euphoric run since then with a lot of hope. The reasoning they gave was “jobs have slowed and we are heading to a 2% inflation”

Meanwhile,
- The FED pivot is as good as dead.
The market is fighting the FED as bond yields still surging despite the rate cuts resulting in huge dollar demand.
I think a 6% on 10Y will be the panic button.

Housing market is already going down as a result.

- Stocks and Crypto going up like no tomorrow.
- Gold is being bought like we are in a crisis while Dollar and 10Y is rallying. When was the last time this happened? Probably never.
- All this while inflation is back on the rise far from the 2% goal.
Something has to give in eventually.

And in China, the situation is even worse. The stocks is in a multi year bear market while the 10Y continues to crash further.
If you are a Chinese investor, where will you put your money?

So what does this mean for India?

2025 is probably going to be a period of huge volatility both in the markets and geopolitics.
So we just gotta ride it out and stop worrying about Rupee ‘crashing’.
India is in a far better position that most other major economies IMO.


View attachment 21643

QE is not going to happen?

I dunno man im prolly going to start dollar cost averaging into 10y bonds if it touches 5%

 

[Blademaster]

~$102B deficit with China in the last calendar year

View attachment 21726

BTW, less export growth to India ~2.4%, as compared to ASEAN countries.

Who all are majorly responsible for Chinese trade surplus?
1. US- $361B
2. Hong Kong- $272.5B
3. EU- $247B
-Netherlands- $72.4B
4. India- $102.5B
5. Vietnam- $63B
6. Singapore- $48B
7. Thailand- $39B
8. Philippines- $33B

How can we reduce the surplus with China? It needs to go down to zero at all possible speed.

 

[Cheepek]

How can we reduce the surplus with China? It needs to go down to zero at all possible speed.

A drastic reduction is not possible









We can incentivise Chinese factories for the items we import (Chinese will not allow), we can import from elsewhere (our production cost will increase), we can formulate industrial policy a la PLI (possible, but may not be politically attractive)

 

[Azaad]

SAIL, John Cockerill to invest around ₹6,000 crore in building downstream steel plant

SAIL and John Cockerill India will jointly invest ₹6,000 crore to establish a downstream plant for cold-rolled electrical steel types, utilizing SAIL's hot-rolled coils. The plant, anticipated by 2027-2029, aims to produce 1.5 million tonnes per annum and promote green steel innovations under...

m.economictimes.com

The good news..

The bad news is we're still only mfg 50,000 tons of the 400,000 tons of Cold-rolled grain-oriented (CRGO) sheets which means the rest are imported.

Worse news is even after being the 2nd largest steel mfg in the world we're still dependant of technology from outside be it China or the west which in this case is John Cockerill.

Tells you how innovative our MODERN steel industry is after being in it for more than a century. Now compare that to the Chinese who became the No 1 steel producer in ~ 3 decades & also developed most steel mfg technologies in house after absorbing them from the west one way or another & are now competing with them .

Let me depress you further by informing you that Wootz steel later also world famous as Damascus steel was invented in India