Indian Economy

[Indianhawk]

10% growth rates is only possible if you keep investing in infrastructure and building things you don't need like China. You will be creating a society which will be hooked on credit. Chinese people might save a lot but when it comes to buying a house they borrow from family members and ofcourse the banks. The same is true for their government which has built most of the infrastructure on "Local government financing vehicles". I have been saying this for a long time. I will say it again here.

It is far better to target GDP growth rate of 7-8% every year for the next 50 years with inflation below 2.5% instead of growth rates of 10%+ for few years here and there with inflation above 4% and low growth rates rest of the time. Consistent growth rates is far better than tiny patches of high growth rates in a 50 year time frame. Growing organically and being able to maintain consistent growth rate regardless of global economic situation is the way to go.

India needs to stop caring about useless headlines figures and should instead focus on unleashing the markets.

We are still hobbled by socialist rules and regulations. The recently announced de-regulation commission is the way to go.

Reducing bureaucracy is most important. Govt should roll back in many more areas allow private sector to take over.

Growth will take care of itself.

 

[Blademaster]

and you will be paying for the transporting costs everytime gold needs to be traded from vault to vault?

Then expect your balls to be in control of the others and you have no independent policy. That’s why I gave a discrepancy margin to allow for what you just wrote.

 

[ezsasa]

Then expect your balls to be in control of the others and you have no independent policy. That’s why I gave a discrepancy margin to allow for what you just wrote.

if 60% is already in the country, that leaves about 30 billion worth outside for trading.
if 30 billion out of 630 billion forex reserve is balls being in control of others, then it's your personal opinion.
===

and for those interested...

Inside the Bank of England's gold vaults​

View: https://youtu.be/FVnxhsB92v4

 

[sauntheninja]

10% growth rates is only possible if you keep investing in infrastructure and building things you don't need like China. You will be creating a society which will be hooked on credit. Chinese people might save a lot but when it comes to buying a house they borrow from family members and ofcourse the banks. The same is true for their government which has built most of the infrastructure on "Local government financing vehicles". I have been saying this for a long time. I will say it again here.

It is far better to target GDP growth rate of 7-8% every year for the next 50 years with inflation below 2.5% instead of growth rates of 10%+ for few years here and there with inflation above 4% and low growth rates rest of the time. Consistent growth rates is far better than tiny patches of high growth rates in a 50 year time frame. Growing organically and being able to maintain consistent growth rate regardless of global economic situation is the way to go.

Our fertility rates are already down after 25 years our population will start aging and then maintaining a 7-8% growth rate will harder & harder. Today only Bihar & UP have a consistently high fertility rates but as these areas develop even they will go below the replacement rates.

 

[ArjunMK1A]

Again asking, how sustainable is India's growth given the severe lack of resources? Unless we discover shit tonnes of oil, I have no reasons to believe we'll ever have a large economy. Probably that's why the urgency for National Green Hydrogen mission and Hydrogen based economy and ethanol blending.

List of countries by oil production - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

GOI is betting big on Modular reactors concept. On paper an game changer prospect which replaces coal fired plants which are sources of Pollution.

Also BESS scheme. Needs to seet the advantage. An grid of Reactors and BESS will have great impact on our Energy Security.

if 60% is already in the country, that leaves about 30 billion worth outside for trading.
if 30 billion out of 630 billion forex reserve is balls being in control of others, then it's your personal opinion.
===

and for those interested...

Inside the Bank of England's gold vaults​

View: https://youtu.be/FVnxhsB92v4

Damn. UK already selected its first Black James Bond. Only Idris Alba can save those gold

 

[eastern_bhartiya]

Our fertility rates are already down after 25 years our population will start aging and then maintaining a 7-8% growth rate will harder & harder. Today only Bihar & UP have a consistently high fertility rates but as these areas develop even they will go below the replacement rates.

Yeah but there are still a lot of stuff we haven't gone into, as the economy and subsequently income level of public grows , they will spend more which will add to GDP, there are penetration of many household gadgets in India like vacuum cleaners. dishwashers, washing machines, ACs are still low, they will keep on increasing, more and more people will also consume digital media like games, movies. Plus there is also car ownership, although people might have mixed opinions about weather its good or not.

basically it will possible to have 7-8% growth for next 20 years even, as along as policy and economy is carefully managed. moving into high value industries is required here, also energy independence will play a big role, if another war happens. ( imo it will happen ). Policy front is key here , massive reforms in education, academic sector so that talent is actually absorbed into industry, otherwise brain-drain to west in continue.

There is a reason why many countries can't simply take away IT industry from Indian companies by being cheap, a lot of our IT firms are embedded deep into western IT sector. people have been predicting about our IT sector collapsing since 2010s, its always something like ML , other cheap countries and what not. services sector is our strength, many countries in middle income trap lack the kind of tech industry that we have.

 

[Blademaster]

if 60% is already in the country, that leaves about 30 billion worth outside for trading.
if 30 billion out of 630 billion forex reserve is balls being in control of others, then it's your personal opinion.
===

and for those interested...

Inside the Bank of England's gold vaults​

View: https://youtu.be/FVnxhsB92v4

$30 billion is still a lot so what’s wrong with being prudent in safeguarding billions of dollars of assets? The cost you cite to is only a couple million of dollars in transport costs. You don’t have to transport all the time. Just do periodic transport like one C-17 or 747 flight per quarter or something. So I don’t see why you are making a big deal about it.

You don’t want other countries to seize your assets like US and Europe did with Russia.

 

[Nibbler]

10% growth rates is only possible if you keep investing in infrastructure and building things you don't need like China. You will be creating a society which will be hooked on credit. Chinese people might save a lot but when it comes to buying a house they borrow from family members and ofcourse the banks. The same is true for their government which has built most of the infrastructure on "Local government financing vehicles". I have been saying this for a long time. I will say it again here.

It is far better to target GDP growth rate of 7-8% every year for the next 50 years with inflation below 2.5% instead of growth rates of 10%+ for few years here and there with inflation above 4% and low growth rates rest of the time. Consistent growth rates is far better than tiny patches of high growth rates in a 50 year time frame. Growing organically and being able to maintain consistent growth rate regardless of global economic situation is the way to go.

If India can stay at replacement rate of fertility, relatively moderate gdp growth is fine.

 

[Azaad]

https://www.financialexpress.com/business/industry-no-more-plis-in-indias-manufacturing-push-3751045/

No more PLIs in India’s manufacturing push

The PLI policy was launched in 2021-22 to assist Indian companies to scale up and become large enough to compete globally.​

Written by Prasanta Sahu
Updated:February 16, 2025 21:47 IST

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Before the Budget announcement, Cabinet notes were already under discussion for new PLIs in six sectors with a tentative allocation of Rs 18,000 crore. (Representational Image/Reuters)
New production-linked incentive (PLI) schemes are set to be given a quiet burial, with many of the existing ones yet to produce satisfactory results. “The spirit of PLI has been lost. PLI is no longer the favoured child,” an official said on condition of anonymity.

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Instead, the government is working out the contours of new incentive schemes for a clutch of industries. These incentives will, however, be markedly different from PLI schemes in terms of structure and objectives, with a sharper focus on job creation and quality of products, official sources said. While the Budget for FY26 stated that new schemes would be rolled out for toys and leather /footwear, similar schemes may be on the cards for chemicals, bicycles, shipping containers, etc, the sources added.


The PLI policy was launched in 2021-22 to assist Indian companies to scale up and become large enough to compete globally. There are as many as 14 schemes at present, with the government seeking to offer Rs 1.95 lakh crore in incentives by FY30. However, the schemes’ progress so far is barely par for the course. There are big lags in investments in many sectors, including automobiles, advance chemistry cell batteries, speciality steel and textiles that were supposed to lead the pack.


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Companies have invested over Rs 1.5 lakh crore in the three years through September 2024 under the 14 PLI schemes, or about 50% of the Rs 3 lakh crore committed over five years.

But only Rs 11,317 crore, or 6% of Rs 1.95 lakh crore incentives linked to investments, sales/ turnover and value addition, has been disbursed till September 2024. The slow pace of disbursement is ascribed to complex rules and red tape. Before the Budget announcement, Cabinet notes were already under discussion for new PLIs in six sectors with a tentative allocation of Rs 18,000 crore. These were Rs 3,500 crore for toys, Rs 2,600 crore for leather and footwear, Rs 3,600 crore for bicycles, Rs 5,000 crore for chemicals, Rs 2,500 crore for critical inputs required for vaccines, and Rs 800 crore for shipping containers. All these were to be funded from savings from the existing PLIs.

However, moving away from PLIs, in the Budget, the government announced that to enhance the productivity, quality and competitiveness of India’s footwear and leather sector, it will launch a “focus product” scheme.

The scheme is to be designed to support design capacity, component manufacturing, and machinery required for the production of non-leather quality footwear, besides leather footwear and products. It is expected to facilitate employment for 2.2 million people, generate a turnover of Rs 4 lakh crore and exports of over Rs 1.1 lakh crore.


INDIA AIMS FOR $ 500 BILLION EXPORT TARGET, EYES TRADE AGREEMENT WITH US TO BOOST SALES: EXPORTERS
Building on the National Action Plan for Toys, the Budget also announced the implementation of a scheme to make India a global hub for toys. The scheme will focus on the development of clusters, skills, and a manufacturing ecosystem that will create high-quality, unique, innovative, and sustainable toys that will represent the ‘Made in India’ brand.

While too many PLIs have diluted the objective of helping the industries on the basis of their disabilities, the scheme has also not been successful in the backward integration of micro, small & medium enterprises (MSMEs) in the manufacturing ecosystem. This has forced the government to announce a national manufacturing mission in the Budget for MSMEs for furthering “Make in India” by providing policy support, execution road maps, governance and monitoring framework for central ministries and states.

TOPICSINDUSTRYMANUFACTURINGPLI
Get Live Share Market updates, Stock Market Quotes, and the latest India News ... Read More
First published on: 16-02-2025 at 19:04 IST

 

[ezsasa]

$30 billion is still a lot so what’s wrong with being prudent in safeguarding billions of dollars of assets? The cost you cite to is only a couple million of dollars in transport costs. You don’t have to transport all the time. Just do periodic transport like one C-17 or 747 flight per quarter or something. So I don’t see why you are making a big deal about it.

You don’t want other countries to seize your assets like US and Europe did with Russia.

part of forex reserves are kept in gold, as their valuation is considered less volatile than currency market. the value of gold is in it's tradability at high value, that too if they are available for trading at short notice. RBI has been on a buying spree lately, but it was not always the case.

if we go by your logic of bringing 95% home, that would leave only 3 billion $ worth in BOE, even lesser a few years back. that would mean more trading will happen in volatile USD than relatively stable gold bullion, which defeats the entire purpose of trying to stabilise currency markets.

as far as seizing assets go, let them try. if the world has come to a stage that BOE is seizing Indian forex assets, then it would mean world order has already collapsed, and gold would be least of the problems.

 

[Blademaster]

part of forex reserves are kept in gold, as their valuation is considered less volatile than currency market. the value of gold is in it's tradability at high value, that too if they are available for trading at short notice. RBI has been on a buying spree lately, but it was not always the case.

if we go by your logic of bringing 95% home, that would leave only 3 billion $ worth in BOE, even lesser a few years back. that would mean more trading will happen in volatile USD than relatively stable gold bullion, which defeats the entire purpose of trying to stabilise currency markets.

as far as seizing assets go, let them try. if the world has come to a stage that BOE is seizing Indian forex assets, then it would mean world order has already collapsed, and gold would be least of the problems.

There’s little trading with gold. Trading is with currencies and currencies are based on the current account deficit and volume of investment coming into ie FDI in local currency and demand for such or lack thereof. Gold serves as an anchor to ensure that the currency’s value doesn’t precipitously drop or increase dramatically. You don’t want your currency to yo yo.

 

[ezsasa]

There’s little trading with gold. Trading is with currencies and currencies are based on the current account deficit and volume of investment coming into ie FDI in local currency and demand for such or lack thereof. Gold serves as an anchor to ensure that the currency’s value doesn’t precipitously drop or increase dramatically. You don’t want your currency to yo yo.

if there is little trading in gold, so where is RBI getting gold bullion in BOE from?
RBI is buying from other central banks in lieu of cash, atleast part of it. as per policy, they are diversifying their forex holdings.

for now i am not sure how does regular gold becomes bullion gold that gets traded between central banks. India holds 25000 tonnes of gold domestically, and just about 800 tonnes in forex reserves. if they want to, they could just pay in INR and pick up tonnes of gold locally.
so one has to assume not every piece of gold can become forex reserve gold.

this has been an open point for me for years, if anyone has the answer. please do.

 

[ezsasa]

what RBI's gold buying spree looks like..

 

[Blademaster]

what RBI's gold buying spree looks like..

View attachment 25405

Because India has been increasing its imports and still have a trade deficit. By buying more gold as reserve it provides further confidence to the currency as they devalue the currency to the dollar at a consistent rate so that there’s no alarm or panic on Indian bond markets. It allows the reserve bank to control inflation

 

[Migflug]

It shows that we need 10% growth rate till 2034, that will be very hard to achieve.


Also, I read somewhere that if China needs to overtake the US, it must do it before 2028, else it never will. Chinese economy will naturally slow down, and the US, even with 4% growth rate will remain ahead due to sheer size.

All the calculations are in nominal GDP growth rate, not the real one!!

 

[sameer]

Global aerospace firms turn to India amid Western supply chain crisis

Leading aerospace firms like Airbus, Collins Aerospace, Pratt & Whitney, and Rolls-Royce are increasing parts sourcing from India. This is boosting India's aerospace sector with companies such as Hical Technologies and JJG Aero experiencing significant growth. The shift is driven by supply chain...

economictimes.indiatimes.com

"Airbus, Collins Aerospace, Pratt & Whitney, and Rolls-Royce are expanding parts sourcing from India, driving growth in the country's emerging aerospace sector and pushing local firms to elevate their games, industry insiders say.

Bengaluru-based Hical Technologies and JJG Aero are among those riding the wave. Hical, a supplier to Raytheon Technology and Boeing among others, aims to double revenue to 5 billion rupees ($57.57 million) from its aerospace division in three years, said Yashas Jaiveer Shashikiran, joint managing director.

JJG Aero, also in Bengaluru's industrial hub, took 12 years to hit $2 million in revenue but soared
to $20 million in the last six, said CEO Anuj Jhunjhunwala.
"Earlier, we were chasing customers. Now, they are equally interested in evaluating Indian machine shops," Jhunjhunwala said, adding that contracts were being signed more quickly and onboarding processes being done much faster than ever before.

The companies produce parts for landing gear, wings, fuselage, electrical switches and motion control systems essential for flight safety and performance."

 

[FalconSlayers]

View: https://x.com/AndhraNexus/status/1891476185168719923

 

[Psacha123]

Soon MacBooks will be made in India.


View: https://x.com/indiaemerges/status/1891567530268926275?s=46

 

[SKC]

Soon MacBooks will be made in India.


View: https://x.com/indiaemerges/status/1891567530268926275?s=46

@FalconSlayers :

 

[Migflug]

https://www.livemint.com/economy/[B...-deficit-rises-to-2-67-bn-11739785434743.html

View: https://youtu.be/8KXIHX0iCrU