Indian Economy

Trump Tariffs on India

Trumps Tariff fight extended to India will force India & China commercial relations to a higher degree. India hardly export much to US. It can reduce that tiny $30 Billion trade deficit by stopping petroleum and other exports to US. In return, Trump is left with no cards to threaten India. Then India does not have to reduce any tariffs. Trump’s advisors are unable to grapple with the reality that American products have 40% component of $50-60 per hour labour cost. The Indian tariffs level the playing field for high labour cost. This Trump advisors have to explain to him. Here Trump is a loser.
 
India Must Cut Red Tape by Rationalizing Bureaucracy

India’s bureaucracy is bloated and inefficient, in dire need of rationalization perhaps by a bold reformer with the decisiveness of an Elon Musk. The old British adage, ‘Bureaucracy is self-perpetuating’, holds especially true in India. Between 1950 and 1980, a massive number of bureaucrats were hired under the slogan of providing employment to the masses. This expansion led to a system where three employees were doing the job of one. Even the number of high-ranking IAS officers quadrupled. The larger the bureaucracy, the greater its inefficiency.

As a result, India’s central government now employs 3.5 million people, excluding state governments, union territories, and public sector employees. State governments collectively have a similar number of employees, further straining public finances.

The Economic Burden

This bloated bureaucracy imposes a heavy burden on the state exchequer. Yet, no serious rationalization efforts have been undertaken. Downsizing the workforce is a politically risky move, as most government employees are unionized and militant. Any attempt to cut back on benefits or retrench employees could spark unrest. Some state governments have attempted pension reforms, only to face electoral backlash. This makes bold reforms, like those seen under Elon Musk in the U.S., unlikely in India.

A Pragmatic Approach to Reform

Despite the challenges, streamlining India’s bureaucracy is both essential and inevitable. A measured, long-term approach could yield results without political upheaval. Key steps include:

1. Implementing a hiring freeze to prevent further expansion.

2. Raising the retirement age to 65 to delay pension liabilities.

3. Redeploying excess employees to public sector undertakings instead of hiring new staff.

4. Reducing excessive benefits to create a leaner and more cost-effective system.

Unlike drastic, overnight cuts, this gradual approach would yield results over a decade. The goal should be to reduce the government workforce by at least 20%, saving an estimated â‚Rupees 8,000 crores over ten years, a significant fiscal benefit.

India cannot afford to let bureaucracy remain a self-perpetuating obstacle to progress. Reform is necessary, and the sooner it begins, the better.
 
Hari Sud said:
India Must Cut Red Tape by Rationalizing Bureaucracy

India’s bureaucracy is bloated and inefficient, in dire need of rationalization perhaps by a bold reformer with the decisiveness of an Elon Musk. The old British adage, ‘Bureaucracy is self-perpetuating’, holds especially true in India. Between 1950 and 1980, a massive number of bureaucrats were hired under the slogan of providing employment to the masses. This expansion led to a system where three employees were doing the job of one. Even the number of high-ranking IAS officers quadrupled. The larger the bureaucracy, the greater its inefficiency.

As a result, India’s central government now employs 3.5 million people, excluding state governments, union territories, and public sector employees. State governments collectively have a similar number of employees, further straining public finances.

The Economic Burden

This bloated bureaucracy imposes a heavy burden on the state exchequer. Yet, no serious rationalization efforts have been undertaken. Downsizing the workforce is a politically risky move, as most government employees are unionized and militant. Any attempt to cut back on benefits or retrench employees could spark unrest. Some state governments have attempted pension reforms, only to face electoral backlash. This makes bold reforms, like those seen under Elon Musk in the U.S., unlikely in India.

A Pragmatic Approach to Reform

Despite the challenges, streamlining India’s bureaucracy is both essential and inevitable. A measured, long-term approach could yield results without political upheaval. Key steps include:

1. Implementing a hiring freeze to prevent further expansion.

2. Raising the retirement age to 65 to delay pension liabilities.

3. Redeploying excess employees to public sector undertakings instead of hiring new staff.

4. Reducing excessive benefits to create a leaner and more cost-effective system.

Unlike drastic, overnight cuts, this gradual approach would yield results over a decade. The goal should be to reduce the government workforce by at least 20%, saving an estimated â‚Rupees 8,000 crores over ten years, a significant fiscal benefit.

India cannot afford to let bureaucracy remain a self-perpetuating obstacle to progress. Reform is necessary, and the sooner it begins, the better.
Click to expand...

since you are referring to central govt..

- India has one of the lowest per capita central/federal govt employees per population ratio, in the world.
- if we remove railways, CRPF, and defence(civil), number would even lesser, about 7 lakh.
- france by comparison has 35-40% of population.

just because some gora is doing something somewhere in some country, we need not automatically assume India needs to do copy the same .

www.worldbank.org

Worldwide Bureaucracy Indicators Dashboard

These dashboards present data from the Worldwide Bureaucracy Indicators (WWBI)- a new dataset on public sector employment and wages.
www.worldbank.org www.worldbank.org
 
Last edited:
ezsasa said:
since you are referring to central govt..

- India has one of the lowest per capita central/federal govt employees per population ratio, in the world.
- if we remove railways, CRPF, and defence(civil), number would even lesser, about 7 lakh.
- france by comparison has 35-40% of population.

just because some gora is doing something somewhere in some country, we need not automatically assume India needs to do copy the same .

www.worldbank.org

Worldwide Bureaucracy Indicators Dashboard

These dashboards present data from the Worldwide Bureaucracy Indicators (WWBI)- a new dataset on public sector employment and wages.
www.worldbank.org www.worldbank.org
Click to expand...
so does anyone have clear idea about what is the issue with Economy rn, if its not bureaucracy, then it must be something else.
 
eastern_bhartiya said:
so does anyone have clear idea about what is the issue with Economy rn, if its not bureaucracy, then it must be something else.
Click to expand...

i am not saying, there are no issues with bureaucracy. i am contesting the idea that central govt bureaucracy is bloated.
if you know of anyone or any organisation which measures efficiency rates of govt bureaucracy across countries on a regular basis, let us know.
 
ezsasa said:
i am not saying, there are no issues with bureaucracy. i am contesting the idea that central govt bureaucracy is bloated.
if you know of anyone or any organisation which measures efficiency rates of govt bureaucracy across countries on a regular basis, let us know.
Click to expand...
I doubt thats a quantifiable thing 🤔🤔
 
eastern_bhartiya said:
I doubt thats a quantifiable thing 🤔🤔
Click to expand...

then how come Indians seem to assume, indian bureaucracy are the root of all evil ?

especially when a decade by decade comparison is done, quality of services have only improved not declined across the country. there might some states where public services have deteriorated for a few years in between, but that's largely attributable to the govt people elected.
 
ezsasa said:
then how come Indians seem to assume, indian bureaucracy are the root of all evil ?

especially when a decade by decade comparison is done, quality of services have only improved not declined across the country. there might some states where public services have deteriorated for a few years in between, but that's largely attributable to the govt people elected.
Click to expand...

Contrast state bureaucracy versus central bureaucracy.
 
Blademaster said:
Contrast state bureaucracy versus central bureaucracy.
Click to expand...

that's the problem with this topic, there are no commonly accepted metrics to compare bureaucratic efficiency.
only anecdotal opinions and exceptions. digitisation is a recent two-three decade phenomenon, so data patterns will start emerging over a period of time to measure some sort of efficiency metrics, but it is also the case that not all digital services are uniform across all states.

so opinions end up as per the eyes of the beholder as per own prejudice.

this is andhra CM's governance dashboard, looks like it is not being updated past few months.

HCM Core Dashboard - Government of Andhra Pradesh

dev-hcmcdb.e-pragati.in dev-hcmcdb.e-pragati.in
 
FalconSlayers said:
Booming economy

View: https://x.com/NDTVProfitIndia/status/1897557435742921159?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1897557435742921159%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=
Click to expand...


Do NOT read too much into these monthly numbers. 2W sales growth shd still end at 9-10% ballpark over FY 2024-25.

www.autocarpro.in

Auto retails in CY2024 rise 9% to 26 million despite challenges | Autocar Professional

In CY2024, a total of 26 million vehicles (2,61,07,679 units) were sold to customers across five segments
www.autocarpro.in www.autocarpro.in
 
Last edited:
papers.ssrn.com

Four Facts on Inclusive Growth in India

This paper analyzes data from recently released household expenditure data for 2022-23 and 2023-24. Data from these surveys indicate a substantial decline in po
papers.ssrn.com

Pretty great paper, India saw good improvement in inequality and poverty even without mind-blowing growth in last decades.
 
FalconSlayers said:
Click to expand...

Car sales are fine, but Bikes and scooter sales are taking a hit. People are moving away from commuter segment to 150cc and above and 4wheelers. A lot of travel is now done via Bike Taxis and Metros.

Unless bikes move from 28% GST slab to 18%/15%/12%, unlikely that 2-wheeler sales will go up to same level as before COVID again.​
 
SKC said:
Car sales are fine, but Bikes and scooter sales are taking a hit. People are moving away from commuter segment to 150cc and above and 4wheelers. A lot of travel is now done via Bike Taxis and Metros.

Unless bikes move from 28% GST slab to 18%/15%/12%, unlikely that 2-wheeler sales will go up to same level as before COVID again.​
Click to expand...
Gst rates overall should be cut for automobiles, let that sector grow. Pollution arguments don't hold much ground. Bad designs of our cities are to be blame than people using cars
 
eastern_bhartiya said:
papers.ssrn.com

Four Facts on Inclusive Growth in India

This paper analyzes data from recently released household expenditure data for 2022-23 and 2023-24. Data from these surveys indicate a substantial decline in po
papers.ssrn.com

Pretty great paper, India saw good improvement in inequality and poverty even without mind-blowing growth in last decades.
Click to expand...
It is the government's failure to be able to highlight this achievement, in this paper it's concluded that India has all but eliminated extreme poverty and inequality has actually declined but this news is not sweeping past news channel's and online journalism
 
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