Indian Economy

[DingDong]

View: https://x.com/chandrarsrikant/status/1907800622549643767?t=99wU0WNWN5IQadUpJOy7jA&s=19

He does have a point, only partly imo - see Shark tank business ideas - but doesn't mention govt support that is provided to those core and deep tech start ups in China. I wonder if he has ever held the baniya industrialist class to account similarly?

It has mostly got to do with India's value system that hates innovation due to high risk-aversion. There is also a relationship between a lack of innovation and the Jugaad system.

Why single out the startups? Just look at the big Indian businesses, how much do they invest in R&D? The figures are laughable. Just listen to the kinds of Narayanmurthy, and be amazed by the lack of interest in the high-tech businesses.

Even in case of the traditional ventures, the term-sheets are extremely hostile towards the original promoters (extremely favorable towards the VCs).

Deep tech requires a lot of investment in terms of time and money. We have got none to spare.

 

[Ajayant Tripathi]

we'll have to keep a watch on forex reserves and RBI USD sales for a month atleast, incase there is a pattern.

Yes.

A slowly devaluing INR is better for India even if we are net importer. It just makes adding value in India a better proposition in long run.

Relying on RBI solely to steady INR value is not the optimum solution. Its operations should be to smoothen the fluctuations in forex rates. I think RBI has been doing it all along and very well exceptionally.

But the long term trend should be a steadly devaluing INR. The best option to increase supply in this case is what we did during covid. Handing more money to workers not bankers else the money will end up locked up in some real estate somewhere.

I believe, Since our major exports are services we may need to keep an eye on movement of wages in services such as software engineer, consultancies etc in US.


If we play our cards right which unfortunately we will not, we may actually benefit from this tariff war.

 

[FalconSlayers]

our USD-INR exchange rate is a factor of trade deficit

*Current account deficit

 

[Ajayant Tripathi]

It has mostly got to do with India's value system that hates innovation due to high risk-aversion. There is also a relationship between a lack of innovation and the Jugaad system.

Why single out the startups? Just look at the big Indian businesses, how much do they invest in R&D? The figures are laughable. Just listen to the kinds of Narayanmurthy, and be amazed by the lack of interest in the high-tech businesses.

Even in case of the traditional ventures, the term-sheets are extremely hostile towards the original promoters (extremely favorable towards the VCs).

Deep tech requires a lot of investment in terms of time and money. We have got none to spare.

View: https://x.com/deepakmnadiger/status/1908023095178174655

Please take a look at this thread.

I agree our national champions are greedy and dandomaxxers. But they are also from politico-business nexus from pre-liberalization era. So, they are more comfortable with buying out concessions from govt.
They have their place. Others have their own.

More than money its the grease thats main problem for our startups. Mr. Piyush Goyal should ask his own govt. departments how much friction they are creating. Why do they have so many touchpoints in business world.

 

[crazywithmath]

View: https://x.com/deepakmnadiger/status/1908023095178174655

Please take a look at this thread.

I agree our national champions are greedy and dandomaxxers. But they are also from politico-business nexus from pre-liberalization era. So, they are more comfortable with buying out concessions from govt.
They have their place. Others have their own.

More than money its the grease thats main problem for our startups. Mr. Piyush Goyal should ask his own govt. departments how much friction they are creating. Why do they have so many touchpoints in business world.

Goyal is a walking talking clown. Should complete the FTA with the UK before lecturing others.

 

[TopWatcher]

View: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/3jpgM7yqzGQ

This is what talking about. Rather than linking rivers. We should have pipe grid across country, to send water to any river from any river.

 

[DingDong]

View: https://x.com/deepakmnadiger/status/1908023095178174655

Please take a look at this thread.

I agree our national champions are greedy and dandomaxxers. But they are also from politico-business nexus from pre-liberalization era. So, they are more comfortable with buying out concessions from govt.
They have their place. Others have their own.

More than money its the grease thats main problem for our startups. Mr. Piyush Goyal should ask his own govt. departments how much friction they are creating. Why do they have so many touchpoints in business world.

You hit the nail on it's head.

However, there exists another side.

The central and state governments have been generously supporting new businesses under the Startup India schemes. 99% of them fail due to a lack of product realization, post-sales support and quality control.

The chalta hai attitude is a pandemic inflicting the Indian businesses irrespective of their size. It is also customary to accuse others for the self-inflicted miseries.

My recent experience:

I recently placed order for a single piece of electronic module (for evaluation) from an Indian fabricator based in Navi Mumbai. The module malfunctioned. They grudgingly agreed to initiate a return and provide a replacement after a long exchange of emails. After returning the module, their team insisted that the module was functioning normally, only to later accept that their "testing and quality control facility" was virtually non-existent.

Now, I am being made to wait until they organize a test-bench and reproduce the issue.

 

[Ajayant Tripathi]

I completely agree with your sentiment. None of the side is faultless.
If the govt. is funding some startups with startup india its machinery is also extracting rent from almost every business.

Our society is inflicted with a lot of malaise. So, the govt. instead of doing the easy job of just throwing money into a bunch of startups can best invest its energy in ensuring it doesn't interfere needlessly in our businesses.

I believe as the economic size grow these nonrespondent and lethargic businesses will soon find they are finding it hard to compete with others. However same is not the case with govt. departments.

 

[crazywithmath]

Still laughing at this.

-> Take two random Greek symbols,
-> Make a complex expression to appear intellectual,
-> Set one symbol to a random positive integer,
-> Set the other to its reciprocal,
-> Multiply each other
-> Congrats, you have a formula to determine 'reciprocal' tariffs.

 

[Gslv Mk3]

View attachment 29535

Still laughing at this.

-> Take two random Greek symbols,
-> Make a complex expression to appear intellectual,
-> Set one symbol to a random positive integer,
-> Set the other to its reciprocal,
-> Multiply each other
-> Congrats, you have a formula to determine 'reciprocal' tariffs.

High IQ Wignat Math. Pajeets can't even grasp it lol.

 

[Azaad]

India’s subprime bubble grew 2,100%; now a bust looms as debt traps millions of families

Subprime loans in India's microfinance sector are experiencing significant distress, with a 68% borrower stress rate and rising overdue loans. The industry's challenges are attributed to borrowers taking new loans to repay old ones, highlighting the need for more robust central bank supervision.

m.economictimes.com

 

[ezsasa]

Yes.

A slowly devaluing INR is better for India even if we are net importer. It just makes adding value in India a better proposition in long run.

Relying on RBI solely to steady INR value is not the optimum solution. Its operations should be to smoothen the fluctuations in forex rates. I think RBI has been doing it all along and very well exceptionally.

But the long term trend should be a steadly devaluing INR. The best option to increase supply in this case is what we did during covid. Handing more money to workers not bankers else the money will end up locked up in some real estate somewhere.

I believe, Since our major exports are services we may need to keep an eye on movement of wages in services such as software engineer, consultancies etc in US.


If we play our cards right which unfortunately we will not, we may actually benefit from this tariff war.

shouldn't we be wishing for other way around, currency to get stronger backed by export growth?

 

[Nutcracker]

View attachment 29535

Still laughing at this.

-> Take two random Greek symbols,
-> Make a complex expression to appear intellectual,
-> Set one symbol to a random positive integer,
-> Set the other to its reciprocal,
-> Multiply each other
-> Congrats, you have a formula to determine 'reciprocal' tariffs.

you are hiding mi= 1 in the next paragraph, aren't you ?

 

[asaada]

Goyal is a walking talking clown. Should complete the FTA with the UK before lecturing others.

Why are you so uptight over the FTA with UK? From what I have seen, it's upside pales in comparison when compared to deals with the USA, Oman, or the GCC. Rushing it through won’t give us any major wins anyway. The Brits want us to open our automotive sector and give them a free rein over our banking sector. I don’t really think an FTA with them should be a priority.

The potential loss of not signing an FTA is far greater for them than for us due to their losses arising from Brexit and Trump's tariffs. So, I believe it’s better to wait rather than rush into it unlike how we did it with Australia when they were delinking from China. We could have extracted more favorable terms if we’d held out a bit longer back then. Doing the same with UK would be extremely foolish, given the experience we have accrued from our past negotiations.

In the end, we don’t wanna end up with more FTAs like ASEAN, Japan and Korea again.

 

[GaudaNaresh]

Goyal is a walking talking clown. Should complete the FTA with the UK before lecturing others.

What exactly does India benefit with fta with uk ?
Remember, UK isn't a developed nation per se, it's literally what you get if you stuck Malaysia and Singapore together, where Singapore is London and rest of uk has same gdp per capita as Malaysia.

 

[crazywithmath]

Why are you so uptight over the FTA with UK?

Because they have left the EU, are getting bitch-slapped by the burgerboys as we speak and in dire need of reliable trade/econ partners. Going back to the ccp fold is a big no so that leaves only us to chime in. And the UK does not even have a meaningful industry to maufacture and export back to us - at best they will export some whiskey and a bunch of high end stuffs (that we do not manufacture in house anyway).

So signing an FTA should not take much time, ideally. The negotiations are stuck because pappu Goyal is adamant on demanding more 'people-to-people mobility' (ie, more body bags/TCS-infy IT coolie visas) which the Brits are reluctant to give in to.

We do not abuse Goyal enough.

From what I have seen, it's upside pales in comparison when compared to deals with the USA,

Deal with USA is way more challenging, they would demand an end to our agri subsidies and ask to compromise on our food security, demand concessions on finished cars etc. Read up my old posts on this thread.

Oman, or the GCC. Rushing it through won’t give us any major wins anyway. The Brits want us to open our automotive sector and give them a free rein over our banking sector. I don’t really think an FTA with them should be a priority.

The potential loss of not signing an FTA is far greater for them than for us due to their losses arising from Brexit and Trump's tariffs.

Yeah, and clown Goyal thinks so too. Which is precisely why he is not willing to sign a deal unless they roll over and beg in front of him.

So, I believe it’s better to wait rather than rush into it unlike how we did it with Australia when they were delinking from China. We could have extracted more favorable terms if we’d held out a bit longer back then. Doing the same with UK would be extremely foolish, given the experience we have accrued from our past negotiations.

In the end, we don’t wanna end up with more FTAs like ASEAN, Japan and Korea again.

An FTA with the UK is not even comparable here. Those FTAs (with ASEAN, Jap, Kor) were signed because of geopolitical calculations (MMS and Maino were retarded enough to yield FTAs as a carrot) - not the case with the pacts we are negotiating right now.

What exactly does India benefit with fta with uk ?
Remember, UK isn't a developed nation per se, it's literally what you get if you stuck Malaysia and Singapore together, where Singapore is London and rest of uk has same gdp per capita as Malaysia.

Market access to a major economy with very little reciprocity in trade (they have little to no domestic industry so won't flood our markets with cheap goods). Even their agri sector is not that big (the usual point of contention whenever we negotiate an FTA).

EDIT: Modi's own EACPM members have been arguing in favor of an FTA with UK, btw.

 

[ezsasa]

Because they have left the EU, are getting bitch-slapped by the burgerboys as we speak and in dire need of reliable trade/econ partners. Going back to the ccp fold is a big no so that leaves only us to chime in. And the UK does not even have a meaningful industry to maufacture and export back to us - at best they will export some whiskey and a bunch of high end stuffs (that we do not manufacture in house anyway).

So signing an FTA should not take much time, ideally. The negotiations are stuck because pappu Goyal is adamant on demanding more 'people-to-people mobility' (ie, more body bags/TCS-infy IT coolie visas) which the Brits are reluctant to give in to.

We do not abuse Goyal enough.



Deal with USA is way more challenging, they would demand an end to our agri subsidies and ask to compromise on our food security, demand concessions on finished cars etc. Read up my old posts on this thread.



Yeah, and clown Goyal thinks so too. Which is precisely why he is not willing to sign a deal unless they roll over and beg in front of him.



An FTA with the UK is not even comparable here. Those FTAs (with ASEAN, Jap, Kor) were signed because of geopolitical calculations (MMS and Maino were retarded enough to yield FTAs as a carrot) - not the case with the pacts we are negotiating right now.



Market access to a major economy with very little reciprocity in trade (they have little to no domestic industry so won't flood our markets with cheap goods). Even their agri sector is not that big (the usual point of contention whenever we negotiate an FTA).

just to add to the convo going on.

UK FTA negotiations is not just about trade, those buggers are adding human rights, gender equality, climate change mitigation blah blah into the negotiations. since it is a labour govt, unlikely that they are going to drop these points.

this is a report submitted to their parliamentary committee making a case for FTA, and notice how many pages at the end are dedicated to climate change related stuff.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/61e1b75e8fa8f5058d5a76bf/uk-india-free-trade-agreement-the-uks-strategic-approach.pdf

 

[crazywithmath]

just to add to the convo going on.

UK FTA negotiations is not just about trade, those buggers are adding human rights, gender equality, climate change mitigation blah blah into the negotiations.

this is a report submitted to their parliamentary committee making a case for FTA, and notice how many pages at the end are dedicated to climate change related stuff.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/61e1b75e8fa8f5058d5a76bf/uk-india-free-trade-agreement-the-uks-strategic-approach.pdf

Those are the kind of fancy buzzwords they throw in whenever they are in the process of drafting a new deal. Even the Paris agreement had some similar jargons thrown in here and there.

The negotiations are stuck because Goyal wants to ship more TCS/Infy coolies, go through the ET/HT articles. The remaining points of contention are manageable.

India, UK resume trade negotiations: The potential flashpoints | India News - The Times of India

India News: India and the UK resumed their FTA talks to boost the GBP 42 billion annual bilateral trade. The discussions, paused due to elections, aim to address

timesofindia.indiatimes.com

This ORF article contains some more details;

The India-UK FTA: Finally coming to fruition?

The India-UK FTA: Finally coming to fruition?

www.orfonline.org

Why exactly Goyal and co are so afraid of their banking and legal services grabbing 1% market share is something I will never understand.

 

[ezsasa]

Those are the kind of fancy buzzwords they throw in whenever they are in the process of drafting a new deal. Even the Paris agreement had some similar jargons thrown in here and there.

The negotiations are stuck because Goyal wants to ship more TCS/Infy coolies, go through the ET/HT articles. The remaining points of contention are manageable.

India, UK resume trade negotiations: The potential flashpoints | India News - The Times of India

India News: India and the UK resumed their FTA talks to boost the GBP 42 billion annual bilateral trade. The discussions, paused due to elections, aim to address

timesofindia.indiatimes.com

visa thing was from 23, when tories were in power. visa had been an issue their home ministry had consistently raised for a long time, even during EU trade deal around 2013-14 when brits were part of EU.

whether their current home ministry will relent now that labour anyways want to make london as londonistan, i suppose we will have to wait for next set of updates.

 

[Ajayant Tripathi]

shouldn't we be wishing for other way around, currency to get stronger backed by export growth?

At this stage of economy. No. We do not do much value addition in our goods exports as of yet. So, a weaker currency is much more beneficial to us at this stage.