110 billion USD & growing is not a small amount.
Yes, it is? And the 10 yr avg CAGR is lower than our nominal GDP growth.
Gone are the days when the world could bank on 3-4 industries or a sector to generate > 35% of exports meaning the days Germany can rely on automobiles contributing 30% , chemicals & pharma 25% , machinery & specialised machinery 20 % & the rest coming from diverse sources will soon be a thing of the past if it isn't already.
Our export basket is sufficiently diverse - electronics, solar panels, automobiles, electrical equipment, petroleum, gems and jewellery, textiles, pharma, chemicals, semiconductor and the list goes on. And it reflects in our economic complexity numbers. Barring petroleum products (owing to record low crude prices) almost every other sector is on steroids, what better time than now to ink some FTAs?
In this day of massive competition it's more about incrementalism . It's 2% a + 3% b + 4% c & on & on till they aggregate to something substantial.
How does it make sense to delay a deal over something that barely moves the needle (ie, remittances) and compromising on the true sunrise opportunities in the process?
Hence remittances from high value service exports as opposed to Pinoys earning from manual labor.
The kind of 'business/working visas' Goyal and co are fighting for is anything but 'high value'.
The true 'high value' service exports are the Indian scientists working at CERN or the Indian engineers heading the overseas design and R&D labs of Tata Motors and Eicher. The TCS/Infy product managers Goyal and co are trying to ship do not even come close.
This is another way to avoid brain drain or at any rate to curb it .
Think about it . Would we rather our guys migrate there or get them to work there on biz visas , contribute to our economy & eventually return to set up industries to export .
Remittances are an absolute dampener to domestic investments. They cripple domestic investments, prioritize consumptions over setting up meaningful greenfield projects and ultimately put stress on the exchange rates by making it less predictive and even appreciating the currency at times (thereby limiting export opportunities).
Which is why every failed nation has a remittance fuelled unproductive real estate boom - be it pakiland, be it Somalia, be it Burkina Faso or anywhere else.
Following is a link to an IMF paper that cautions member countries against pursuing remittances as a meaningful avenue to grow their economy (yeah, I understand this is not a hardcore econometrics forum but still);
We propose a simple macroeconomic model with input-output sectoral linkages based on Acemoglu et al. (2016) to quantify how changes in aggregate demand due to additional income from household’s remittances propagates through the network of input-output linkages in Sub-Saharan African countries...
www.elibrary.imf.org
Do not get me wrong, remittances are a nice launchpad for piss poor nations. But we are way past that stage of development.
How long will we subsidise IITs or government medical colleges only to see the creme de la creme settle abroad ?!
The avg Indian settling abroad is anything but 'creme de la creme'. And we do not have to worry about a tiny no of top 1 %ilers settling abroad. Most jobs (even the highly technical ones) are highly trainable and us lagging in terms of real innovation is not a supply side problem - it is a demand issue and I have talked about it before. If the state throws money in it and the domestic economy continues to grow (thereby generating demand for high end innovative products) even the guys staying back will create competitive and innovative stuff.
GoI ought to be doing something on all fronts to curb such unintentional exports. People will migrate anyway . Why should the GoI contribute to it ?
The govt should not care. Those who want to leave are welcome to do so. Those who want to stay back in build in India are welcome too. The govt must not turn a facilitator for the immigrants, that is NOT their job.
Is that the only reason the Rupee tanked ?
In that period? Yes, it was the single largest contributor.
And then the clowns found out that they were putting out erroneous figures for several months.
Does it really make sense to shop abroad for oil fields when we should be transferring our investments to Lithium & other RE ? H
Of course it makes perfect sense to scout for oil and natgas fields when crude is inching towards historic lows. ONGC Videsh even has a number of active projects and the FM proudly sets ambitious targets every year (only to yield nothing by the end of the FY). Oil is not going anywhere, plastics and polystyrenes are not going anywhere - howsoever strong the global renewables push might be.
Funnily enough, they have some active projects to scout for rare earth metals too. But have not managed to achieve jack yet.
ow many such overseas oil fields have the Chinese invested on recently ?
They were on a purchasing spree post the '90s and done acquiring them (mostly) by 2014-15;
Look how many upcoming oilfields they have acquired stakes in across LatAm;
The total oil & gas production South America increased by 15.38% in 2023 when compared with 2022.
www.offshore-technology.com
They even went after the American and the Mexican oilfields, albeit, unsuccessfully;
Company cites uncertainty as it moves to cut risk
asia.nikkei.com
The UPA govt at least tried to compete with them;
ONGC has lost the Kashagan oilfield to the Chinese after Kazakhstan blocked its $5 bn deal to buy ConocoPhillips' stake in Caspian Sea oilfield.
economictimes.indiatimes.com
Puri and co do not even care.
This has to laid at Leaderji's doorstep.
I am sorry but this is entirely on the Minister. The PM (and his advisors) only make the broad economic policy calls, to adjust for international price fluctuations is entirely on the concerned Minister and his babus.
Underperformance is nothing new for Puri tho. Coal India failed to meet even the 'revised' domestic production targets when he was the coal Minister. Almost all the metro and RRTS projects were struggling when he was managing MoHUA. And yet, the Minister was bragging about housing Muslim slum dwellers in the Central Vista premises and getting fact checked by his own colleagues and partymen.
Puri is the implementor not the policy maker in this regard @ Won't cut fuel prices despite crude prices inching closer to US$ 60 per barrel and happily overseeing the steady decline of OMC PSUs (who are gradually losing market share to the Ambanis by keeping prices inflated) and would come up with hilarious justifications to defend that.
One has to do with generating revenues for the government & the other to forward the interests of fund raisers for the party though the notion of profiting industrialists to the tune of lakhs or crores for a few thousand crores in party contribution is beyond me.
I do not think it is corruption, btw. Just plain old incompetence - the babus cannot grasp global markets and are fearful of international price fluctuations so they refrain from tinkering with the domestic refined prices. They likely have drawn a Laxman rekha here, they won't increase the prices even if the global crude prices go through the roofs because they are fearful of political repurcussions - at this rate, they might be planning keep the prices fixed for a decade, who knows. Which is just plain stupid.