Indian Economy

[ezsasa]

If you watch few episodes of Shark tank you will notice, these sharks will jump immediately jump to invest in some random, cola, chips mithai startup but if some guy comes with a genuinely good product, they will start asking question about muh sales, muh profit, muh previous investors

i don't watch sharktank, but.

the phenomenon is that foreign origin business plan/model will never fully support business ideas that promote native economic independence and self reliance. if they promote, they will only if they are going to cut in revenue from swadesi business idea.

test this paradigm against examples, will be true in most cases.

Shark tank - foreign concept
sonyliv - foreign origin media platform

 

[crazywithmath]

Back then the rationale offered was the faster we get these FTAs signed the better for our trade . First movers advantage etc . was being touted as explanations to conclude those FTAs. See it as part of a learning curve albeit a pretty steep one .

Btw - those FTAs with RoK & Japan turning counter productive should be held up to people here who argue FTAs should only be with more developed economies rather than developing ones for the latter are our direct competitors - either existing or potential.

No, there should be sub categorization even among the 'developed economies'. Japan, Korea maintain very competitive manufacturing setups - ditto for Germany and France (to an extent). They should not be clubbed together with the likes of the UK, Australia, New Zealand, the US or the GCC nations.

Perhaps you could link one or a couple of articles here.

The India-UK FTA: Finally coming to fruition?

The India-UK FTA: Finally coming to fruition?

www.orfonline.org

Majority of India-U.K. FTA issues either closed or at advanced stage of talks: official

Majority of the issues in the proposed free trade agreement between India and the U.K. are either finalised or at an advanced stage of talks

www.thehindu.com

Notice this curious case - negotiations with the EU hit a roadblock over those 'business visa quotas' back in 2016. Our merchandise exports were NOT doing great back then, the non petro products were getting outcompeted by the chongs. PLI, SPECs etc were not even on the anvil.

Why India must be flexible on FTA with EU

Why India must be flexible on FTA with EU

www.orfonline.org

Fast forward to 2025, our exports are doing great and we are competitive on the global marker and yet, the babus have not stopped fighting over those 'visa quotas'.

Either way, the FTA with EU is challenging to ink even if we stop fighting over business visa quotas so I am not holding my breath over it but the FTAs with others should NOT get stuck over silly disagreements.

Point taken but why should we give up on business visas if they're potential money spinners for us . If the GoI has made non acceptance of them to be deal breakers there must be solid reasons to do so .

Remittances are barely 3% of our GDP and it is expected to remain so in the near future. Fast growing major economies do NOT rely on remittances, that is just how things work. Exports, otoh, account for a significantly larger share of the GDP (and growing). It makes perfect sense to prioritize the latter - the negotiations of an FTA should be based on the economic realities of 2025, it is not the '80s anymore.

Goel has been in charge for more than a decade now . I doubt you can be in a ministry that long & still be as incompetent as you're claiming. Besides I've never seen reports in MSM or SM targeting him the way for instance we see NS being targeted. Cut him some slack.

Like I said, his Ministry was reporting faulty import data for months and nobody batted an eyelid - resulting in a Rupee crash. And yet, there was no accountability, nobody got fired and the Minister did not even care to do a briefing.

NS gets abused because;

1. She is arrogant,
2. She is a political novice who does not know how to handle media,
3. The avg guy earning 12-15 lakhs considers himself middle class and would not stop whining over 'muh high taxes'.

The avg guy does not really care about trade, defense or oil markets so the likes of Goyal, Rajnath and Hardeep Puri get away scot free.

 

[Ajayant Tripathi]

i'll rejoin the convo here since @GaudaNaresh has brought out the points i would have.

but chini did rack up debts by delinking national accounts from local accounts for a long time, by maintaining two books (kacha and pakka khatas). post chini virus, this topic has died down, but there used to be constant literature on this pre chini virus.

even if we go by your formula, there are more factors unrelated to competitiveness calculations that are determining the CAD and there by exchange rate i.e energy imports and remittances. our trade deficit clock starts at -110 billion $ on crude oil imports alone.

this reliance on currency devaluation helps sure, but that does not create and expand infra assets. the highways, railways and ports expansion that we see is a small part of facilitating value addition i.e lowering/improving cost of logistics there by effecting the bottom line. gormint is not building expressways for families to go on long drives, they are building them for logistics trucks and freight trains to move faster and cheaper. there by improving bottom line.

by any chance, are you a fan of raghu ram rajan school of economics, trying to run the economy via interest rates and money supply?

to sum up my argument, in my world view chasing ways to improve value addition yields more diverse positive results to the system as a whole than currency devaluation.

You have made very valid points. First thing first i am not fan of Raghu Ram Rajan School. You will see it soon. He thinks from pure monetary point of view. We have seen this school in action during UPA regime.

You are right. Currency devaluation is just one of many ways of gaining cost advantage. I think you and I are on same understanding here. I too dislike relying solely on currency devaluation to gain competitve edge. It is the easiest thing to do but also has drastic internal consequences. Internal inflation spirals out. This is exactly what happened during UPA era. They used monetary stimulus only, to prop up the economy leading to massive inflation in our domestic economy.

An economy is not just about monetary policy. It has a fiscal policy too. Both of these policies should work together to gain competitive advantage. The Chinese recognized it. They recognized that currency is just a medium of exchange. It is just accounting and tallies transactions. Not every entry in account book reflects an economic activity, nor does every economic activity has a corresponding entry in account book.

The Chinese recognized this and internalized it. Thats why they made contrived internal accounting system which we outsiders have hard time understanding. To the chinese, The real store of value is real material hard assets.

You are correct in recognizing the value of logistic infrastructure. Hard infrastructure like roads, rails, canals, have deflationary impact in domestic markets. Another best thing about hard infrastructure is its permanence. A cut in a mountain is permanent. A canal dug will last decades, a road with basic ongoing maintenance can last decades. The best thing they are like real estate. Once you are free from debt you are just gaining from rent as well as asset appreciation. Its a win win situation. That why i value hard infra. You are very right in valuing logistical infra. Thats why Chinese invested again massively in infra. The logistical costs are lowered permanently. The cost advantage is permanent. They are even building mega canals now for example Pinglu Canal.

Now let us contrast it with currency devaluation to retain competitive advantage. The devaluation is a slippery slope. You will always be devaluing your currency causing internal inflation. Unlike Hard infrastructure which benefits the society as a whole and is permanent. The money printed is disproportionately allocated.

So, you see unlike Raghuram Rajan School I value hard infra much more. I will prefer them working together. Slight devaluation backed by development of public infrastructure. Thats what chinese are doing. The infrastructure buildup has appreciative impact on the yuan. So, they print more money to keep it devalued. They are not fighting inflation. They are fighting deflation. The yuan wants to appreciate in value but they are not letting it.

We however relied on printing money in past. UPA was worst in it. They printed money, but didn't build infra. Now we need to devalue more to gain same cost advantage and bear the pain of inflation. That's why i like Modi. He instead of printing money built infra which is why he is able to keep inflation in check. He is right in focussing on maintaining a leash on inflation. Thats why farm laws were important. Once the cold chains were established we could control inflation in our food stocks. We could have had a more healthier economy. The annadattas screwed the whole nation. Just like environmentalists all over. I am sick of these leeches.

Thats why i say build more infra let it appreciate INR and than print in more money. This way we are retaining cost advantage but are not facing domestic inflation to that extant. We should slowly i mean slowly keep on depreciating INR and keep on building infrastructure.

An appreciating INR is also not helpful at all. Deflation is more catastrophic than inflation. Thats what happened to yen. We don't want that. The americans with this trade war are trying to force yuan appreciation. Deflate the chinese economy. I don't know if chinese have prepared for it or not. Japanese certainly were not.

 

[SKC]

Mod Alert:
Issuing Warning to both @pixxel and @Spacemarine - avoid use of this language while engaging with each other in the forum. There is no place for hate speech here.

 

[johny_baba]

If you watch few episodes of Shark tank you will notice, these sharks will jump immediately jump to invest in some random, cola, chips mithai startup but if some guy comes with a genuinely good product, they will start asking question about muh sales, muh profit, muh previous investors

indian version of muh shark tank is literally carp tank with lala mentality judges

i remember from first season there was some bald inventor guy bringing a specialised cooking oven that could cook up things usually taking time, he shown roasted chicken thing, in much faster ways, with claiming how it preserves most features like tenderness, nutritions in it at same time

it was some product that used both microwaves and induction at same time, cooking from top-bottom sides together

those carp judges even liked the demo of both product and outcome, but turned it down over muh profitability part, and that bhadwa ass-water (ass-neer) even called him ;shakal; from some stupid old movie villain

i hope that guy's getting deserved success for this product

 

[vampyrbladez]

View: https://x.com/IndianTechGuide/status/1908369158200254517/photo/1

 

[Migflug]

View: https://x.com/AssaadRazzouk/status/1908011675963502671?t=omIFOfnIVjK-YN2TN9HU2A&s=19

 

[Azaad]

No, there should be sub categorization even among the 'developed economies'. Japan, Korea maintain very competitive manufacturing setups - ditto for Germany and France (to an extent). They should not be clubbed together with the likes of the UK, Australia, New Zealand, the US or the GCC nations.

True but we don't know what the understanding was when we signed on to the FTA. What I provided you earlier is the rationale I came across much after those FTAs were done.

The India-UK FTA: Finally coming to fruition?

The India-UK FTA: Finally coming to fruition?

www.orfonline.org

Majority of India-U.K. FTA issues either closed or at advanced stage of talks: official

Majority of the issues in the proposed free trade agreement between India and the U.K. are either finalised or at an advanced stage of talks

www.thehindu.com

Actually I was referring to what you alleged were insistence on biz visas behind the reasons for the FTA with the GCC not fructifying.

Notice this curious case - negotiations with the EU hit a roadblock over those 'business visa quotas' back in 2016. Our merchandise exports were NOT doing great back then, the non petro products were getting outcompeted by the chongs. PLI, SPECs etc were not even on the anvil.

Why India must be flexible on FTA with EU

Why India must be flexible on FTA with EU

www.orfonline.org

Fast forward to 2025, our exports are doing great and we are competitive on the global marker and yet, the babus have not stopped fighting over those 'visa quotas'.

Either way, the FTA with EU is challenging to ink even if we stop fighting over business visa quotas so I am not holding my breath over it but the FTAs with others should NOT get stuck over silly disagreements.

IMO , we ought to postpone signing the FTA with the EU to later this decade. RN their economy is depressed . Let it undergo more turmoil lest our FTA act as a buoyant factor to their collective economies were we to sign it now . Probably we're dragging the FTA with the UK for the same reason.

Remittances are barely 3% of our GDP and it is expected to remain so in the near future. Fast growing major economies do NOT rely on remittances, that is just how things work. Exports, otoh, account for a significantly larger share of the GDP (and growing). It makes perfect sense to prioritize the latter - the negotiations of an FTA should be based on the economic realities of 2025, it is not the '80s anymore.

Why should it be an either or case when we can have both ? 3% isn't a small factor . If we keep aggregating all such advantages we will arrive at a substantial amount. It could be that given everyone's wise to exponential advantage like it was in the initial days of FTAs which since can't be gotten thru such arrangements as in the past that the GoI & EU are sticking to their respective guns for incremental advantages.


As pointed out earlier if GoI is sticking to its guns there must be some reason for it which we given the limited information we've at our disposal are unable to fathom. It could be the case that they're dragging their feet over it for reasons offered above or something else.

Like I said, his Ministry was reporting faulty import data for months and nobody batted an eyelid - resulting in a Rupee crash. And yet, there was no accountability, nobody got fired and the Minister did not even care to do a briefing.

NS gets abused because;

1. She is arrogant,
2. She is a political novice who does not know how to handle media,
3. The avg guy earning 12-15 lakhs considers himself middle class and would not stop whining over 'muh high taxes'.

The avg guy does not really care about trade, defense or oil markets so the likes of Goyal, Rajnath and Hardeep Puri get away scot free.

True. We're a very nascent democracy in that sense , more representative feudal democracy as I put it where public questioning of our policies is reduced to basics till date - from roti kapda makaan in the recent past it's been enlarged to include bijli sadak pani since the 90s to shiksha swasthya shauch recently. We're getting there if ever so slowly.

Whenever anyone feels like fretting on the progress we're making please remember this - when UK won the most existential war in WW-2 , it was a given that the person who led then would easily retain his government.

Yet Churchmouse lost. He was seen as good enough for a war time leader & the man they elected Atlee is today hailed as someone as important a PM in the entire history of governments they've had in terms of the impact that person & the administration he headed has had on the polity as the former in his role in guiding the nation to victory .

This is the kind of maturity not fostered in a few generations but multiple ones for the starting point in democracy as we're accustomed to seeing it in the UK goes way back to the early 13th century with the signing of the Magna Carta .

From there onwards democracy has been a roller coaster zig zag ride for them right till where it has got them today . For perspective in early 13th century India within the very borders which now constitutes the RoI , we finally succumbed to the Turko Islamic invasions which we'd been staving off for 5 centuries before that.

 

[eastern_bhartiya]

View: https://x.com/IndianTechGuide/status/1908369158200254517/photo/1

Do the idiots who make comparisons know, how massive chinese traditional medicine industry is or how big fortune telling market is in china or stuff like feng shui ,which is like chinese vastu shastra ?

 

[Anants]

indian version of muh shark tank is literally carp tank with lala mentality judges

i remember from first season there was some bald inventor guy bringing a specialised cooking oven that could cook up things usually taking time, he shown roasted chicken thing, in much faster ways, with claiming how it preserves most features like tenderness, nutritions in it at same time

it was some product that used both microwaves and induction at same time, cooking from top-bottom sides together

those carp judges even liked the demo of both product and outcome, but turned it down over muh profitability part, and that bhadwa ass-water (ass-neer) even called him ;shakal; from some stupid old movie villain

i hope that guy's getting deserved success for this product

Glad somebody else also remembers that episode. That day itself i lost interest in startups and sharktank. The only one episode I glanced at liked was when Piyush was the only one who accepted pitched of Sonicsheep headpone manufacturers. Even in that episode I thought Boat guy would jump at them.as they would have gotten Indian sourced high end headphones in their portfolio. But his reaction was inline with what you observed they are in the business because of bottomline and not because of passion.

 

[crazywithmath]

Why should it be an either or case when we can have both ?

Because growing remittances is a negative feature of an emerging economy - a stagnant or negative remittance growth (over a long enough period) is an excellent indicator of the overall economic health of a fast growing economy.

Remittances result in increased consumption (and NOT investment) and makes an economy more reliant on external economic outlook. It also eats into economic complexity by disincentivizing domestic investment and makes the domestic macro and currency environment less predictable.

Pinoys tried pursuing this model of economy by exporting coolies - look what it did to them. Heck, you do not have to look that far - pakroaches, kanglus and sri lankans tried running their economy by remittance-maxxing; look how that turned out for them.

It is absolutely fine if remittance inflows stagnate (as a % of the GDP) or even declines. It is a desired outcome even and would indicate rising prosperity back home (because the immigrants would no longer need to send money back to feed their families). Remittances as a % of GDP has steadily declined in ccpstan, their govt shd be pretty damn happy about it.

The govt of the land can pursue this strategy of shipping IT coolies and remittance-maxxing at their own peril. Calling it out as such is not mental gymnastics.

3% isn't a small factor .

Yes, it is. We can thrive without a paltry ~ US$ 110 billion.

If we keep aggregating all such advantages we will arrive at a substantial amount. It could be that given everyone's wise to exponential advantage like it was in the initial days of FTAs which since can't be gotten thru such arrangements as in the past that the GoI & EU are sticking to their respective guns for incremental advantages.


As pointed out earlier if GoI is sticking to its guns there must be some reason for it which we given the limited information we've at our disposal are unable to fathom. It could be the case that they're dragging their feet over it for reasons offered above or something else.

True. We're a very nascent democracy in that sense , more representative feudal democracy as I put it where public questioning of our policies is reduced to basics till date - from roti kapda makaan in the recent past it's been enlarged to include bijli sadak pani since the 90s to shiksha swasthya shauch recently. We're getting there if ever so slowly.

Some antics of the esteemed Minsiters;

1. Piyush Goyal: Cannot publish correct trade data, tanked the Rupee (should have been fired for just this). Incapable of securing market access. Claiming to have kept 'immigration' talks separate from FTA negotiations by hiding behind wordplay. Cannot keep babus in check (whose understanding of the domestic economy is still stuck in the '90s).

2. Hardeep Puri: Incompetent arrogant motormouth. Could not secure a single oil field abroad - the UPA clowns at least tried (but got outmuscled by the chongs anyway). Openly lying about oil production costs in front of media. Won't cut fuel prices despite crude prices inching closer to US$ 60 per barrel and happily overseeing the steady decline of OMC PSUs (who are gradually losing market share to the Ambanis by keeping prices inflated) and would come up with hilarious justifications to defend that.

3. Rajnath Singh: Lol, I do not even have to say anything here. This forum does a better job e-lynching him.

These esteemed Ministers deserve to be abused.

Not related to this discussion but apparently, Goyal recites the Kalma every morning (his own words, btw);


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c7V4lYk7lL4

I wonder how this forum feels about it.

And then, some forum members get upset when I call him a walking talking clown.

 

[Azaad]

Because growing remittances is a negative feature of an emerging economy - a stagnant or negative remittance growth (over a long enough period) is an excellent indicator of the overall economic health of a fast growing economy.

Remittances result in increased consumption (and NOT investment) and makes an economy more reliant on external economic outlook. It also eats into economic complexity by disincentivizing domestic investment and makes the domestic macro and currency environment less predictable.

Pinoys tried pursuing this model of economy by exporting coolies - look what it did to them. Heck, you do not have to look that far - pakroaches, kanglus and sri lankans tried running their economy by remittance-maxxing; look how that turned out for them.

It is absolutely fine if remittance inflows stagnate (as a % of the GDP) or even declines. It is a desired outcome even and would indicate rising prosperity back home (because the immigrants would no longer need to send money back to feed their families). Remittances as a % of GDP has steadily declined in ccpstan, their govt shd be pretty damn happy about it.

The govt of the land can pursue this strategy of shipping IT coolies and remittance-maxxing at their own peril. Calling it out as such is not mental gymnastics.



Yes, it is. We can thrive without a paltry ~ US$ 110 billion.

110 billion USD & growing is not a small amount. Gone are the days when the world could bank on 3-4 industries or a sector to generate > 35% of exports meaning the days Germany can rely on automobiles contributing 30% , chemicals & pharma 25% , machinery & specialised machinery 20 % & the rest coming from diverse sources will soon be a thing of the past if it isn't already.

In this day of massive competition it's more about incrementalism . It's 2% a + 3% b + 4% c & on & on till they aggregate to something substantial.

Hence remittances from high value service exports as opposed to Pinoys earning from manual labor. This is another way to avoid brain drain or at any rate to curb it .
Think about it . Would we rather our guys migrate there or get them to work there on biz visas , contribute to our economy & eventually return to set up industries to export .

How long will we subsidise IITs or government medical colleges only to see the creme de la creme settle abroad ?! GoI ought to be doing something on all fronts to curb such unintentional exports. People will migrate anyway . Why should the GoI contribute to it ?

Some antics of the esteemed Minsiters;

1. Piyush Goyal: Cannot publish correct trade data, tanked the Rupee (should have been fired for just this). Incapable of securing market access. Claiming to have kept 'immigration' talks separate from FTA negotiations by hiding behind wordplay. Cannot keep babus in check (whose understanding of the domestic economy is still stuck in the '90s).

Is that the only reason the Rupee tanked ?

2. Hardeep Puri: Incompetent arrogant motormouth. Could not secure a single oil field abroad - the UPA clowns at least tried (but got outmuscled by the chongs anyway).

Does it really make sense to shop abroad for oil fields when we should be transferring our investments to Lithium & other RE ? How many such overseas oil fields have the Chinese invested on recently ?

Openly lying about oil production costs in front of media. Won't cut fuel prices despite crude prices inching closer to US$ 60 per barrel and happily overseeing the steady decline of OMC PSUs (who are gradually losing market share to the Ambanis by keeping prices inflated) and would come up with hilarious justifications to defend that.

This has to laid at Leaderji's doorstep. Puri is the implementor not the policy maker in this regard @ Won't cut fuel prices despite crude prices inching closer to US$ 60 per barrel and happily overseeing the steady decline of OMC PSUs (who are gradually losing market share to the Ambanis by keeping prices inflated) and would come up with hilarious justifications to defend that.

One has to do with generating revenues for the government & the other to forward the interests of fund raisers for the party though the notion of profiting industrialists to the tune of lakhs or crores for a few thousand crores in party contribution is beyond me.

3. Rajnath Singh: Lol, I do not even have to say anything here. This forum does a better job e-lynching him.

Rajnath Singh is a complete misfit. No two opinions about it. He deserves to be replaced.

These esteemed Ministers deserve to be abused.

Not related to this discussion but apparently, Goyal recites the Kalma every morning (his own words, btw);


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c7V4lYk7lL4

I wonder how this forum feels about it.

And then, some forum members get upset when I call him a walking talking clown.

Will have to see the rest of the link before commenting. I've often seen people give an inch to take a yard . It's a negotiation tactic as well. Claim to be in support of something by conceding a point here or there thus disarming the audience convincing them of one's neutrality before landing body blows . It's an old tactic by experienced negotiators & politicians.

 

[Azaad]

View: https://youtu.be/V_wx8uytqiA?si=HGlmLHXeJvGoeogw

 

[DingDong]

i don't watch sharktank, but.

the phenomenon is that foreign origin business plan/model will never fully support business ideas that promote native economic independence and self reliance. if they promote, they will only if they are going to cut in revenue from swadesi business idea.

test this paradigm against examples, will be true in most cases.

Shark tank - foreign concept
sonyliv - foreign origin media platform

Found this on LinkedIn (can't disagree):

 

[crazywithmath]

110 billion USD & growing is not a small amount.

Yes, it is? And the 10 yr avg CAGR is lower than our nominal GDP growth.

Gone are the days when the world could bank on 3-4 industries or a sector to generate > 35% of exports meaning the days Germany can rely on automobiles contributing 30% , chemicals & pharma 25% , machinery & specialised machinery 20 % & the rest coming from diverse sources will soon be a thing of the past if it isn't already.

Our export basket is sufficiently diverse - electronics, solar panels, automobiles, electrical equipment, petroleum, gems and jewellery, textiles, pharma, chemicals, semiconductor and the list goes on. And it reflects in our economic complexity numbers. Barring petroleum products (owing to record low crude prices) almost every other sector is on steroids, what better time than now to ink some FTAs?

In this day of massive competition it's more about incrementalism . It's 2% a + 3% b + 4% c & on & on till they aggregate to something substantial.

How does it make sense to delay a deal over something that barely moves the needle (ie, remittances) and compromising on the true sunrise opportunities in the process?

Hence remittances from high value service exports as opposed to Pinoys earning from manual labor.

The kind of 'business/working visas' Goyal and co are fighting for is anything but 'high value'.

The true 'high value' service exports are the Indian scientists working at CERN or the Indian engineers heading the overseas design and R&D labs of Tata Motors and Eicher. The TCS/Infy product managers Goyal and co are trying to ship do not even come close.

This is another way to avoid brain drain or at any rate to curb it .
Think about it . Would we rather our guys migrate there or get them to work there on biz visas , contribute to our economy & eventually return to set up industries to export .

Remittances are an absolute dampener to domestic investments. They cripple domestic investments, prioritize consumptions over setting up meaningful greenfield projects and ultimately put stress on the exchange rates by making it less predictive and even appreciating the currency at times (thereby limiting export opportunities).

Which is why every failed nation has a remittance fuelled unproductive real estate boom - be it pakiland, be it Somalia, be it Burkina Faso or anywhere else.

Following is a link to an IMF paper that cautions member countries against pursuing remittances as a meaningful avenue to grow their economy (yeah, I understand this is not a hardcore econometrics forum but still);

The Impact of Remittances on Economic Activity: The Importance of Sectoral Linkages

We propose a simple macroeconomic model with input-output sectoral linkages based on Acemoglu et al. (2016) to quantify how changes in aggregate demand due to additional income from household’s remittances propagates through the network of input-output linkages in Sub-Saharan African countries...

www.elibrary.imf.org

Do not get me wrong, remittances are a nice launchpad for piss poor nations. But we are way past that stage of development.

How long will we subsidise IITs or government medical colleges only to see the creme de la creme settle abroad ?!

The avg Indian settling abroad is anything but 'creme de la creme'. And we do not have to worry about a tiny no of top 1 %ilers settling abroad. Most jobs (even the highly technical ones) are highly trainable and us lagging in terms of real innovation is not a supply side problem - it is a demand issue and I have talked about it before. If the state throws money in it and the domestic economy continues to grow (thereby generating demand for high end innovative products) even the guys staying back will create competitive and innovative stuff.

GoI ought to be doing something on all fronts to curb such unintentional exports. People will migrate anyway . Why should the GoI contribute to it ?

The govt should not care. Those who want to leave are welcome to do so. Those who want to stay back in build in India are welcome too. The govt must not turn a facilitator for the immigrants, that is NOT their job.

Is that the only reason the Rupee tanked ?

In that period? Yes, it was the single largest contributor.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-18/india-s-record-gold-import-said-to-be-due-to-calculation-error

And then the clowns found out that they were putting out erroneous figures for several months.

Does it really make sense to shop abroad for oil fields when we should be transferring our investments to Lithium & other RE ? H

Of course it makes perfect sense to scout for oil and natgas fields when crude is inching towards historic lows. ONGC Videsh even has a number of active projects and the FM proudly sets ambitious targets every year (only to yield nothing by the end of the FY). Oil is not going anywhere, plastics and polystyrenes are not going anywhere - howsoever strong the global renewables push might be.



Funnily enough, they have some active projects to scout for rare earth metals too. But have not managed to achieve jack yet.

ow many such overseas oil fields have the Chinese invested on recently ?

They were on a purchasing spree post the '90s and done acquiring them (mostly) by 2014-15;




Look how many upcoming oilfields they have acquired stakes in across LatAm;

Top ten upcoming crude oil fields in South America

The total oil & gas production South America increased by 15.38% in 2023 when compared with 2022.

www.offshore-technology.com

They even went after the American and the Mexican oilfields, albeit, unsuccessfully;

https://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/25/chinese-investment-company-to-buy-texas-oil-fields-for-13b.html

China's CNOOC sells off U.S. oil and gas interests in Gulf of Mexico

Company cites uncertainty as it moves to cut risk

asia.nikkei.com

The UPA govt at least tried to compete with them;

India loses $5 bn bid for Kashagan oil field to China

ONGC has lost the Kashagan oilfield to the Chinese after Kazakhstan blocked its $5 bn deal to buy ConocoPhillips' stake in Caspian Sea oilfield.

economictimes.indiatimes.com

Puri and co do not even care.

This has to laid at Leaderji's doorstep.

I am sorry but this is entirely on the Minister. The PM (and his advisors) only make the broad economic policy calls, to adjust for international price fluctuations is entirely on the concerned Minister and his babus.

Underperformance is nothing new for Puri tho. Coal India failed to meet even the 'revised' domestic production targets when he was the coal Minister. Almost all the metro and RRTS projects were struggling when he was managing MoHUA. And yet, the Minister was bragging about housing Muslim slum dwellers in the Central Vista premises and getting fact checked by his own colleagues and partymen.

Puri is the implementor not the policy maker in this regard @ Won't cut fuel prices despite crude prices inching closer to US$ 60 per barrel and happily overseeing the steady decline of OMC PSUs (who are gradually losing market share to the Ambanis by keeping prices inflated) and would come up with hilarious justifications to defend that.

One has to do with generating revenues for the government & the other to forward the interests of fund raisers for the party though the notion of profiting industrialists to the tune of lakhs or crores for a few thousand crores in party contribution is beyond me.

I do not think it is corruption, btw. Just plain old incompetence - the babus cannot grasp global markets and are fearful of international price fluctuations so they refrain from tinkering with the domestic refined prices. They likely have drawn a Laxman rekha here, they won't increase the prices even if the global crude prices go through the roofs because they are fearful of political repurcussions - at this rate, they might be planning keep the prices fixed for a decade, who knows. Which is just plain stupid.

 

[shuturmurg]

Holy shit.

View: https://x.com/Bangalorereal1/status/1908044296789295209?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1908044296789295209%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=


Meanwhile cities continue to resemble worse than failed states.

Per employee office space is between 100 to 125 sq feet in India, according to google.
Even if we take average of 125 sq. ft, that is around office space for ~100k people in 1 quarter in Bangalore. That means 400k (4 lakh) office jobs in Bangalore per year.

So, does that mean Bangalore is adding 800k to 1 million people per year to its population.
That's insane population growth.

BTW, Pune without any infra investments and publicity keeps being near top at attracting offices.
Maharastra govt.'s neglect of Pune is bizarre.

 

[shuturmurg]

No, there should be sub categorization even among the 'developed economies'. Japan, Korea maintain very competitive manufacturing setups - ditto for Germany and France (to an extent). They should not be clubbed together with the likes of the UK, Australia, New Zealand, the US or the GCC nations.

The India-UK FTA: Finally coming to fruition?

The India-UK FTA: Finally coming to fruition?

www.orfonline.org

Majority of India-U.K. FTA issues either closed or at advanced stage of talks: official

Majority of the issues in the proposed free trade agreement between India and the U.K. are either finalised or at an advanced stage of talks

www.thehindu.com

Notice this curious case - negotiations with the EU hit a roadblock over those 'business visa quotas' back in 2016. Our merchandise exports were NOT doing great back then, the non petro products were getting outcompeted by the chongs. PLI, SPECs etc were not even on the anvil.

Why India must be flexible on FTA with EU

Why India must be flexible on FTA with EU

www.orfonline.org

Fast forward to 2025, our exports are doing great and we are competitive on the global marker and yet, the babus have not stopped fighting over those 'visa quotas'.

Either way, the FTA with EU is challenging to ink even if we stop fighting over business visa quotas so I am not holding my breath over it but the FTAs with others should NOT get stuck over silly disagreements.



Remittances are barely 3% of our GDP and it is expected to remain so in the near future. Fast growing major economies do NOT rely on remittances, that is just how things work. Exports, otoh, account for a significantly larger share of the GDP (and growing). It makes perfect sense to prioritize the latter - the negotiations of an FTA should be based on the economic realities of 2025, it is not the '80s anymore.



Like I said, his Ministry was reporting faulty import data for months and nobody batted an eyelid - resulting in a Rupee crash. And yet, there was no accountability, nobody got fired and the Minister did not even care to do a briefing.

NS gets abused because;

1. She is arrogant,
2. She is a political novice who does not know how to handle media,
3. The avg guy earning 12-15 lakhs considers himself middle class and would not stop whining over 'muh high taxes'.

The avg guy does not really care about trade, defense or oil markets so the likes of Goyal, Rajnath and Hardeep Puri get away scot free.

These IT slave owners have a very strong lobby. Its because of their lobbying that Indian govt. inserts those visa clauses to free trade negotiations.

 

[eastern_bhartiya]

No, there should be sub categorization even among the 'developed economies'. Japan, Korea maintain very competitive manufacturing setups - ditto for Germany and France (to an extent). They should not be clubbed together with the likes of the UK, Australia, New Zealand, the US or the GCC nations.

The India-UK FTA: Finally coming to fruition?

The India-UK FTA: Finally coming to fruition?

www.orfonline.org

Majority of India-U.K. FTA issues either closed or at advanced stage of talks: official

Majority of the issues in the proposed free trade agreement between India and the U.K. are either finalised or at an advanced stage of talks

www.thehindu.com

Notice this curious case - negotiations with the EU hit a roadblock over those 'business visa quotas' back in 2016. Our merchandise exports were NOT doing great back then, the non petro products were getting outcompeted by the chongs. PLI, SPECs etc were not even on the anvil.

Why India must be flexible on FTA with EU

Why India must be flexible on FTA with EU

www.orfonline.org

Fast forward to 2025, our exports are doing great and we are competitive on the global marker and yet, the babus have not stopped fighting over those 'visa quotas'.

Either way, the FTA with EU is challenging to ink even if we stop fighting over business visa quotas so I am not holding my breath over it but the FTAs with others should NOT get stuck over silly disagreements.



Remittances are barely 3% of our GDP and it is expected to remain so in the near future. Fast growing major economies do NOT rely on remittances, that is just how things work. Exports, otoh, account for a significantly larger share of the GDP (and growing). It makes perfect sense to prioritize the latter - the negotiations of an FTA should be based on the economic realities of 2025, it is not the '80s anymore.



Like I said, his Ministry was reporting faulty import data for months and nobody batted an eyelid - resulting in a Rupee crash. And yet, there was no accountability, nobody got fired and the Minister did not even care to do a briefing.

NS gets abused because;

1. She is arrogant,
2. She is a political novice who does not know how to handle media,
3. The avg guy earning 12-15 lakhs considers himself middle class and would not stop whining over 'muh high taxes'.

The avg guy does not really care about trade, defense or oil markets so the likes of Goyal, Rajnath and Hardeep Puri get away scot free.

I have talked about this part with my family members even, they all think NS is some idiot . I had to give a whole 30 minute lecture about state of our Air force and infantry modernization to my family. Kadi ninda doesn't receive his share of criticism for fucking up procurements.

 

[karn]

who got drunk, minister or the friend ?

Both ... Its not a "friend" just a professional contact ..Drunk ? Him while telling me and ministerji while ranting.

 

[Azaad]

Yes, it is? And the 10 yr avg CAGR is lower than our nominal GDP growth.



Our export basket is sufficiently diverse - electronics, solar panels, automobiles, electrical equipment, petroleum, gems and jewellery, textiles, pharma, chemicals, semiconductor and the list goes on. And it reflects in our economic complexity numbers. Barring petroleum products (owing to record low crude prices) almost every other sector is on steroids, what better time than now to ink some FTAs?



How does it make sense to delay a deal over something that barely moves the needle (ie, remittances) and compromising on the true sunrise opportunities in the process?



The kind of 'business/working visas' Goyal and co are fighting for is anything but 'high value'.

The true 'high value' service exports are the Indian scientists working at CERN or the Indian engineers heading the overseas design and R&D labs of Tata Motors and Eicher. The TCS/Infy product managers Goyal and co are trying to ship do not even come close.



Remittances are an absolute dampener to domestic investments. They cripple domestic investments, prioritize consumptions over setting up meaningful greenfield projects and ultimately put stress on the exchange rates by making it less predictive and even appreciating the currency at times (thereby limiting export opportunities).

Which is why every failed nation has a remittance fuelled unproductive real estate boom - be it pakiland, be it Somalia, be it Burkina Faso or anywhere else.

Following is a link to an IMF paper that cautions member countries against pursuing remittances as a meaningful avenue to grow their economy (yeah, I understand this is not a hardcore econometrics forum but still);

The Impact of Remittances on Economic Activity: The Importance of Sectoral Linkages

We propose a simple macroeconomic model with input-output sectoral linkages based on Acemoglu et al. (2016) to quantify how changes in aggregate demand due to additional income from household’s remittances propagates through the network of input-output linkages in Sub-Saharan African countries...

www.elibrary.imf.org

Do not get me wrong, remittances are a nice launchpad for piss poor nations. But we are way past that stage of development.




The avg Indian settling abroad is anything but 'creme de la creme'. And we do not have to worry about a tiny no of top 1 %ilers settling abroad. Most jobs (even the highly technical ones) are highly trainable and us lagging in terms of real innovation is not a supply side problem - it is a demand issue and I have talked about it before. If the state throws money in it and the domestic economy continues to grow (thereby generating demand for high end innovative products) even the guys staying back will create competitive and innovative stuff.



The govt should not care. Those who want to leave are welcome to do so. Those who want to stay back in build in India are welcome too. The govt must not turn a facilitator for the immigrants, that is NOT their job.



In that period? Yes, it was the single largest contributor.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-18/india-s-record-gold-import-said-to-be-due-to-calculation-error

And then the clowns found out that they were putting out erroneous figures for several months.




Of course it makes perfect sense to scout for oil and natgas fields when crude is inching towards historic lows. ONGC Videsh even has a number of active projects and the FM proudly sets ambitious targets every year (only to yield nothing by the end of the FY). Oil is not going anywhere, plastics and polystyrenes are not going anywhere - howsoever strong the global renewables push might be.



Funnily enough, they have some active projects to scout for rare earth metals too. But have not managed to achieve jack yet.



They were on a purchasing spree post the '90s and done acquiring them (mostly) by 2014-15;

View attachment 29632
View attachment 29633

Look how many upcoming oilfields they have acquired stakes in across LatAm;

Top ten upcoming crude oil fields in South America

The total oil & gas production South America increased by 15.38% in 2023 when compared with 2022.

www.offshore-technology.com

They even went after the American and the Mexican oilfields, albeit, unsuccessfully;

https://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/25/chinese-investment-company-to-buy-texas-oil-fields-for-13b.html

China's CNOOC sells off U.S. oil and gas interests in Gulf of Mexico

Company cites uncertainty as it moves to cut risk

asia.nikkei.com

The UPA govt at least tried to compete with them;

India loses $5 bn bid for Kashagan oil field to China

ONGC has lost the Kashagan oilfield to the Chinese after Kazakhstan blocked its $5 bn deal to buy ConocoPhillips' stake in Caspian Sea oilfield.

economictimes.indiatimes.com

Puri and co do not even care.



I am sorry but this is entirely on the Minister. The PM (and his advisors) only make the broad economic policy calls, to adjust for international price fluctuations is entirely on the concerned Minister and his babus.

Underperformance is nothing new for Puri tho. Coal India failed to meet even the 'revised' domestic production targets when he was the coal Minister. Almost all the metro and RRTS projects were struggling when he was managing MoHUA. And yet, the Minister was bragging about housing Muslim slum dwellers in the Central Vista premises and getting fact checked by his own colleagues and partymen.



I do not think it is corruption, btw. Just plain old incompetence - the babus cannot grasp global markets and are fearful of international price fluctuations so they refrain from tinkering with the domestic refined prices. They likely have drawn a Laxman rekha here, they won't increase the prices even if the global crude prices go through the roofs because they are fearful of political repurcussions - at this rate, they might be planning keep the prices fixed for a decade, who knows. Which is just plain stupid.

View: https://twitter.com/daeroplate_v2/status/1908372214757326945?s=19


View: https://twitter.com/calm_sutra/status/1908509192261947465?s=19

As EU TFR drops this problem will get more acute. And this will be seen as early as mid next decade . As it is EU has shot itself in the foot by hosting peacefuls whether legal or illegal immigrants.

The only other option for them is import. Till such time we'd keep hemorrhaging talent. A biz visa helps us keep them as our citizens, provide valuable FOREX as remittances & ensure dependencies on us.

Not all our calculations need be based on the here & now . Observing each country's TFR & future trends in it ought to be mandatory along with their economic health indicators - a vital factor to be considered in FTA negotiations.