Indian Economy

[TopWatcher]

View: https://x.com/MeghUpdates/status/1871948092834197899

Is this going to happen , looking at current condition ?

 

[shuturmurg]

View: https://x.com/MeghUpdates/status/1871948092834197899

Is this going to happen , looking at current condition ?

Currency in free fall, unless there is big bump from rebase I don't think so. BTW, I have seen all the BJP IT cell accounts are now following congressi IT cell pattern and using "Big", "Huge", in all their posts.

 

[Nutcracker]

Currency in free fall, unless there is big bump from rebase I don't think so. BTW, I have seen all the BJP IT cell accounts are now following congressi IT cell pattern and using "Big", "Huge", in all their posts.

It's dollar getting stronger due to international slowdown and flight to safety.

INR became stronger compared to these currencies.

 

[shuturmurg]

It's dollar getting stronger due to international slowdown and flight to safety.

INR became stronger to these currencies.
View attachment 19561View attachment 19562View attachment 19563

True, but I am talking about absolute value of GDP as reported in USD.

 

[Nutcracker]

True, but I am talking about absolute value of GDP as reported in USD.

But in last one year yen and euro devalued more compared to INR, and Japan and Germany are competitors for 4th and 3rd rank .

 

[ezsasa]

View: https://x.com/MeghUpdates/status/1871948092834197899

Is this going to happen , looking at current condition ?

depends on Trump-Xi trade war. when these two engage in tariff wars, global growth slows down which has a second order effect on Indian exports, when western consumption slows globals GDP slows down. it is a second order effect because India does not have much of direct to consumer goods that are exported to western markets, India mostly exports services and goods to companies that sell products to their customers in the west.

our imports are unlikely to slow down, the question remains how much the exports can reduce the trade deficit.


whether IMF has factored in all this, we will know from their next year's estimates. they too will need time to analyse the impact depending on how their president behaves.

last time, trump tried for almost a year to make nice with Xi. tariff wars started after that.

this is over and above whatever will happen internally within the country.

internally a few commerce efficiencies are going to be unlocked in next few years, some of them are:

- DFC is expected to be completed end-to-end.
- mumbai-delhi expressway
- palm oil mission, trees that were planted a few years ago will start maturing, should reduce some of the palm oil imports.

 

[shuturmurg]

But in last one year yen and euro devalued more compared to INR, and Japan and Germany are competitors for 4th and 3rd rank .

India will cross those. I was talking more about hitting 5.5 trillion.

 

[Nutcracker]

India will cross those. I was talking more about hitting 5.5 trillion.

Even 5.5 growth + 5.5 inflation - 2% devaluation = 9% will get us across 5.5T by 2028.

 

[shuturmurg]

Even 5.5 growth + 5.5 inflation - 2% devaluation = 9% will get us across 5.5T by 2028.

But we are devaluing more than 2%. Its been over 3% this year.

 

[Nutcracker]

But we are devaluing more than 2%. Its been over 3% this year.

Nope 2.5.

 

[Knowitall]

A small titbit of states spending their money wisely.


View: https://x.com/indiantechguide/status/1872175676289130632?s=46


View: https://x.com/ashaoliviausa/status/1872177096144892062?s=46

Look at the media headlines though


View: https://x.com/amit6060/status/1872178467984535770?s=46

 

[Cheepek]

Unpopular opinion- we should let Chinese set up their factories in India, preferably with an Indian partner. Since Trump will impose tariffs on Chinese exports, their manufacturers will also frantically search for other destinations. It is a very small window we have, and we should not let it go. It is very natural if Chinese are used to set up or better our manufacturing base, just like Koreans and Japanese were used in China.

 

[bakofbakchod]

Unpopular opinion- we should let Chinese set up their factories in India, preferably with an Indian partner. Since Trump will impose tariffs on Chinese exports, their manufacturers will also frantically search for other destinations. It is a very small window we have, and we should not let it go. It is very natural if Chinese are used to set up or better our manufacturing base, just like Koreans and Japanese were used in China.

why should that be unpopular? if the chinx allowed the Japanese to help mass industrialize them starting in the 80s, just 40 years after being nankinged, there is no reason why there should be any restrictions. Just look up any Japanese company. They set up overseas factories, did JVs and tech transfers in massive numbers starting from the opening up of the economy. The only reason India has restriction is to help support rent seeking leeches who refuse to scale up. Companies like ATL, Haier, Oppo, Midea have all set up medium to large scale factories here in the last few years, whose factory size is easily in the 99th percentile when compared to the ones set up by indian companies.

 

[ezsasa]

Unpopular opinion- we should let Chinese set up their factories in India, preferably with an Indian partner. Since Trump will impose tariffs on Chinese exports, their manufacturers will also frantically search for other destinations. It is a very small window we have, and we should not let it go. It is very natural if Chinese are used to set up or better our manufacturing base, just like Koreans and Japanese were used in China.

chinese companies are not interested in setting up mfg. capacity(assembly lines) in India other than 3-4 sectors, they prefer investing in countries which have FTA with U.S and E.U.

It is worth highlighting that Chinese investments in India have historically been quite underwhelming. India’s official figures show that China’s cumulative foreign direct investment (FDI) from 2000-2020 amounted to a mere US$2.4 billion. If investments from Hong Kong are included, it totalled another US$4.7 billion between 2000-2023.

Is India warming up to Chinese investment?, Economy News - ThinkChina

China’s investments in India, historically underwhelming, have dropped further with India’s fears of China’s “opportunistic takeovers”, says Indian researcher Amit Kumar. But a more favourable Indian public discourse towards Chinese investments and the potential for win-win benefits could turn...

www.thinkchina.sg

 

[Cheepek]

why should that be unpopular? if the chinx allowed the Japanese to help mass industrialize them starting in the 80s, just 40 years after being nankinged, there is no reason why there should be any restrictions. Just look up any Japanese company. They set up overseas factories, did JVs and tech transfers in massive numbers starting from the opening up of the economy. The only reason India has restriction is to help support rent seeking leeches who refuse to scale up. Companies like ATL, Haier, Oppo, Midea have all set up medium to large scale factories here in the last few years, whose factory size is easily in the 99th percentile when compared to the ones set up by indian companies.

There is a very healthy section of people in the non left who believe in Chinese investments giving a leverage to China for an economic squeeze on India at an opportune time.

 

[crazywithmath]

Currency in free fall, unless there is big bump from rebase I don't think so. BTW, I have seen all the BJP IT cell accounts are now following congressi IT cell pattern and using "Big", "Huge", in all their posts.

Arvind S is writing articles after articles urging the RBI to 'let' the currency fall and find its 'natural value' and here you are saying 'currency is in free fall'.

Will have to look up the details but pretty sure INR is among the best performing Asian currencies (if not the best perming one already).

 

[FalconSlayers]

well this year turned out to be true, unless 5.4% growth is your idea of vishwaguru. the worst has yet to come. this sharp fall in capex will show itself in the upcoming quarters.

View attachment 19452

Govt aims to improve quality spending, cut fiscal deficit to 4.5% in FY26: Finmin report

Budget 2025: The govt is focused on better quality spending, enhancing the social security net, and reducing the fiscal deficit to 4.5 per cent of GDP by FY26. This approach aims to boost India's macro-economic fundamentals and financial stability. The upcoming Budget for 2025-26 will be...

economictimes.indiatimes.com

 

[FalconSlayers]

wow grape

Steelmakers may cut down on Capex amid price slump

Steelmakers in India are expected to reduce their capital expenditure plans in 2025 due to declining steel prices, impacted by increased imports from China. This downturn has resulted in reduced profitability and cash flows, affecting expansion efforts as domestic steel consumption grows. Flat...

economictimes.indiatimes.com

 

[GodEmperorDoom]

wow grape

Steelmakers may cut down on Capex amid price slump

Steelmakers in India are expected to reduce their capital expenditure plans in 2025 due to declining steel prices, impacted by increased imports from China. This downturn has resulted in reduced profitability and cash flows, affecting expansion efforts as domestic steel consumption grows. Flat...

economictimes.indiatimes.com

Have they looked into moving up the Value Chain? Last time I saw, we are importing Surgical Grade Steel and likes of that with Dhandomaxxers scraping bottom barrel crumbs.

 

[crazywithmath]

wow grape

Steelmakers may cut down on Capex amid price slump

Steelmakers in India are expected to reduce their capital expenditure plans in 2025 due to declining steel prices, impacted by increased imports from China. This downturn has resulted in reduced profitability and cash flows, affecting expansion efforts as domestic steel consumption grows. Flat...

economictimes.indiatimes.com

They are taking forever to put anti dumping on afeemchi steel.