Indian Economy


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It will be a great day for our country when we are able to export 1 million+ EVs in an FY, hopefully in the early 30s
 
"Outdated standards

At the heart of this challenge lies India’s outdated minimum energy performance standards (MEPS) for room air conditioners. ACs sold in India are required to carry energy labels from one to five stars, with the one-star level serving as the minimum standard. However, for inverter (variable-speed) ACs—which now dominate the market—India’s one-star rating is nearly 50% less efficient than the minimum standard in countries like China and Japan. In fact, China’s current minimum requirement is comparable to India’s five-star rating, meaning most ACs sold in India today wouldn’t even qualify for sale in the Chinese market.

Yet the gap is not difficult to close. Our research proposes a clear, realistic roadmap for progressively raising India’s MEPS over the next decade. Starting in 2027, the minimum standard could be set to the current five-star level (ISEER 5.0, or Indian Seasonal Energy Efficiency Ratio), then gradually increased to ISEER 6.3 by 2030—matching the most efficient AC models already available in India—and finally to ISEER 7.4 by 2033, aligned with global best-in-class performance. Each of these steps is grounded in technologies already being manufactured and sold by leading Indian and international brands."


 
Royal Enfield also will cross sale of 1 million bikes in a calendar and financial year for the very first time in their history:


For the first time in its storied history, Royal Enfield is estimated to have crossed the 1-million-unit sales milestone in a single financial year, marking a defining moment for the iconic mid-size motorcycle maker. Market sources told Autocar Professional that the company is estimated to have dispatched over 90,000 units in March 2025, surpassing its total volume during FY2025 and reaching the coveted 1-million mark.

This achievement caps a year of sustained growth, product revitalization, and global expansion for the Chennai-based manufacturer. At the start of FY2025, Autocar Professional reported Royal Enfield’s ambitious target of achieving 1 million in annual volumes—a significant climb from the 912,732 units dispatched in FY2024.
 
These will not be final and will be heavily reduced in the coming weeks.

What’s more funny is that even Bdesh (37%) and Pak 29%) are hit with massive tariffs that will sink their already sinking economy.

Our economic rivals Vietnam (45%) and China (34%) are also hit with way higher tariffs which means China can no more re-route goods via Vietnam.

Overall I think India will come out stronger relative to our rivals after all negotiations.
 
These will not be final and will be heavily reduced in the coming weeks.

What’s more funny is that even Bdesh (37%) and Pak 29%) are hit with massive tariffs that will sink their already sinking economy.

Our economic rivals Vietnam (45%) and China (34%) are also hit with way higher tariffs which means China can no more re-route goods via Vietnam.

Overall I think India will come out stronger relative to our rivals after all negotiations.

If the orange man keeps doing it time and time again, markets would stop behaving rationally and tank the economy. Investor confidence and consumer sentiments matter.
 
Maybe rupee appreciation was done in anticipation of these tariffs, now it might depreciate again to mitigate some effect. But 26% is just too much


Nightmare for China, can't export directly, can't export indirectly. Focus on consumption bro 😎

On a relative level its not that bad. Main thing is that tariffs on India are lower than Vietnam, Lungidesh, Baboonesia and Thailand.

Only exception seems to be Philippines which is not really a manufacturing power anyway.

Our economic rivals Vietnam (45%) and China (34%) are also hit with way higher tariffs which means China can no more re-route goods via Vietnam.

China tariffs are 54% now btw. This 34% is in addition to the 20% imposed in February.
 
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On a relative level its not that bad. Main thing is that tariffs on India are lower than Vietnam, Lungidesh, Baboonesia and Thailand.

Only exception seems to be Philippines which is not really a manufacturing power anyway.
That's true. It's bad for us, the same way it is bad for everyone including Americans themselves. But certainly worst for China+n, it's clear there's a lot of subjectivity that went into finalising that %tariff figure.

"gehoon ke saath ghun bhi pista hai" type situation for us. Hope we can strike a trade deal soon


This seems right, it's just trade surplus as ~%tariffs charged to US


View: https://x.com/AGHamilton29/status/1907557625341890834?t=J9g7d1wEctVmlAaByNfcLw&s=19
 
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Sooo the number on the left is just surplus/exports and no subjectivity involved. I take all my words back on US targeting China, which now does not seem to be the case.
 
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These are the numbers asked GPT to create table:


| Category | India Total Tariff (%) | China Total Tariff (%) |
|--------------------------|----------------------------|----------------------------|
| General Goods (Avg.) | 28.8–29.83 | 71.5 |
| Electronics | 28.8–29.83 | 79 |
| Electric Vehicles | 2.5–12.5 | 154 |
| Steel | 25 | 79 |
| Aluminum | 10 | 64 |
| Solar Panels | 28.8–29.83 | 129 |
| Semiconductors | 28.8–29.83 | 79 |
| Agricultural Products | 31 | 71.5 |
| Textiles/Apparel | 28.8–29.83 | 79 |
| Machinery | 28.8–29.83 | 79 |
| Pharmaceuticals | 0–12.5 | 79 |
| Gems and Jewelry | 28.8–29.83 | 71.5 |

### Table 2: Total U.S. Tariff Percentages for Pakistan and Bangladesh (as of April 3, 2025)

| Category | Pakistan Total Tariff (%) | Bangladesh Total Tariff (%) |
|--------------------------|-------------------------------|---------------------------------|
| General Goods (Avg.) | 32.5–33.0 | 40.0–40.5 |
| Electronics | 32.5–33.0 | 40.0–40.5 |
| Electric Vehicles | 31.5 | 39.5 |
| Steel | 54 | 62 |
| Aluminum | 39 | 47 |
| Solar Panels | 32.5–33.0 | 40.0–40.5 |
| Semiconductors | 32.5–33.0 | 40.0–40.5 |
| Agricultural Products | 34 | 42 |
| Textiles/Apparel | 32.5–33.0 | 40.0–40.5 |
| Machinery | 32.5–33.0 | 40.0–40.5 |
| Pharmaceuticals | 29–31.5 | 37–39.5 |
| Gems and Jewelry | 32.5–33.0 | 40.0–40.5 |


India do have an edge but definitely a trade deal can help to reduce some of the tariffs, if we play our cards right this could be an opportunity to attract more domestic and foreign direct investment in sectors like Goods, Textiles and even EV and Solar
 
India should ride this out for few months.

Trump can not sustain this for long period.
He has an year at max.
If this continues and with 2026 mid terms, it's something that would be weigh on Trump's mind as well.

he loses control in 2026 on economy, his presidency is finished & Trump knows this fact.
 

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