Indian Economy

[Nibbler]

India should ride this out for few months.

Trump can not sustain this for long period.
He has an year at max.
If this continues and with 2026 mid terms, it's something that would be weigh on Trump's mind as well.

he loses control in 2026 on economy, his presidency is finished & Trump knows this fact.

both sides of american political spectrum want to lower the trade deficits and bring back industry. thy just went about it differently. biden tried to do industrial policy with chips act and green whatever. trump trying with erecting trade barriers.

I think america is just no longer willing play the role it hass been

i bet the trade barriers dont go down unless reciprocated regardless of who is in power. just like the 2018 tariffs on china werent touched by biden

 

[Spacemarine]

seems like Turkey and UK basically got lowest tariffs(~12.5%)

Its time India imposes highest tariffs on nations Trump spared

 

[ArjunMK1A]

seems like Turkey and UK basically got lowest tariffs(~12.5%)

Its time India imposes highest tariffs on nations Trump spared

UK is already deindustrialized.

 

[Ajayant Tripathi]

I am sceptical of Indian governments beureaucracy to absorb the new investment. Our babus are not interested in business or investment. They just want the grease. Abhinav Prakash IAS who was recently in news for taking comission are perfect example of these leeches. Again the compliance authorities also extort money.

India will need to not just lower tarriffs, but will have to ease compliance burden. This is where i am sceptical about India lapping on the current oppurtunity. These leeches will just scare away the investment.

 

[Spacemarine]

I am sceptical of Indian governments beureaucracy to absorb the new investment. Our babus are not interested in business or investment. They just want the grease. Abhinav Prakash IAS who was recently in news for taking comission are perfect example of these leeches. Again the compliance authorities also extort money.

India will need to not just lower tarriffs, but will have to ease compliance burden. This is where i am sceptical about India lapping on the current oppurtunity. These leeches will just scare away the investment.

BJP states has more ease of setting up the business than others, babus remain somewhat constrained if thr is a Yogi or Modi sitting in top.

 

[Ajayant Tripathi]

Well, Abhinav Prakash was from UP and certainly was responsible for new investments. Still he backstabbed Maharaj ji. It is unacceptable how much chutzpah these leeches carry even knowing the top man will not certainly accept it. These termites undercut every good thing.

 

[Cheepek]

View: https://x.com/michaelxpettis/status/1907631530056331760?t=RS07CjpFwGW9MB4nMKoCRw&s=19

 

[Spacemarine]

Well, Abhinav Prakash was from UP and certainly was responsible for new investments. Still he backstabbed Maharaj ji. It is unacceptable how much chutzpah these leeches carry even knowing the top man will not certainly accept it. These termites undercut every good thing.

He got caught, you will see babus sharing bribes with porty workers in waste bengal and kerala

 

[maximus777]

I am sceptical of Indian governments beureaucracy to absorb the new investment. Our babus are not interested in business or investment. They just want the grease. Abhinav Prakash IAS who was recently in news for taking comission are perfect example of these leeches. Again the compliance authorities also extort money.

India will need to not just lower tarriffs, but will have to ease compliance burden. This is where i am sceptical about India lapping on the current oppurtunity. These leeches will just scare away the investment.

100%!! I think everyone will play nice for the time being and bide their time. It's just 4 years after all. If they are lucky, midterm elections in 2026 may result in a democratic surge and everything will be hamstrung after that. If not 2028 it is.

 

[iNorthernerOn9]

Though I know little economics... but when I look at the entire list of nations on which Trump tariffs have been imposed & take into consideration what US actually imports from them... To me these tariffs appear more of a reward than punishment(for India) in the long run.

 

[ezsasa]

rough calculations using grok

Country	U.S. Imports (2024, $B)	U.S. Exports (2024, $B)	Goods Trade Deficit with U.S. (2024, $B)	Tariffs Charged to the U.S.A.	U.S.A. Discounted Reciprocal Tariffs
China	427	148	279	67%	34%
European Union	300	120	180	39%	20%
Vietnam	150	20	130	90%	46%
Taiwan	90	40	50	64%	32%
Japan	130	60	70	46%	24%
India	110	20	90	52%	26%
South Korea	100	40	60	50%	25%
Thailand	40	10	30	72%	36%
Switzerland	40	20	20	61%	31%
Indonesia	25	10	15	64%	32%
Malaysia	40	15	25	47%	24%
Cambodia	7	2	5	97%	49%
United Kingdom	60	50	10	10%	10%
South Africa	8	5	3	60%	30%
Brazil	30	25	5	10%	10%
Bangladesh	12	2	10	74%	37%
Singapore	25	35	-10 (surplus)	10%	10%
Israel	20	5	15	33%	17%
Philippines	20	5	15	34%	17%
Chile	10	10	0 (balanced)	10%	10%
Australia	20	35	-15 (surplus)	10%	10%
Pakistan	4	1	3	58%	29%
Turkey	15	5	10	10%	10%
Sri Lanka	3	1	2	88%	44%
Colombia	15	10	5	10%	10%

Table: India’s Top 20 Goods Exports to the U.S. (2023-2024) with Tariff Impact​

S.No.	HS Code	Commodity	Export Value (2023-2024, $M)	52% Tariff Impact ($M)	26% Tariff Impact ($M)
1	71	Natural or Cultured Pearls, Precious/Semi-Precious Stones, Jewelry, Coins	9,948.50	5,173.22	2,586.61
2	30	Pharmaceutical Products	8,079.95	4,201.57	2,100.79
3	27	Mineral Fuels, Oils, Distillation Products, Bituminous Substances, Waxes	5,832.94	3,033.13	1,516.56
4	85	Electrical Machinery, Equipment, Sound Recorders, TV Recorders, Parts	11,081.13	5,762.19	2,881.09
5	84	Nuclear Reactors, Boilers, Machinery, Mechanical Appliances, Parts	6,166.51	3,206.59	1,603.29
6	73	Articles of Iron or Steel	2,793.57	1,452.66	726.33
7	29	Organic Chemicals	2,408.30	1,252.32	626.16
8	62	Apparel and Clothing Accessories, Not Knitted or Crocheted	2,503.86	1,302.01	651.00
9	87	Vehicles (Other than Railway/Tramway), Parts and Accessories	2,647.57	1,376.74	688.37
10	63	Other Made-Up Textile Articles, Sets, Worn Clothing, Rags	2,782.06	1,446.67	723.34
11	61	Apparel and Clothing Accessories, Knitted or Crocheted	2,215.19	1,151.90	575.95
12	03	Fish, Crustaceans, Molluscs, Other Aquatic Invertebrates	1,903.86	990.01	495.00
13	38	Miscellaneous Chemical Products	1,275.37	663.19	331.60
14	39	Plastic and Articles Thereof	1,446.29	752.07	376.04
15	94	Furniture, Bedding, Mattresses, Lamps, Lighting Fittings	1,100.85	572.44	286.22
16	76	Aluminium and Articles Thereof	945.66	491.74	245.87
17	90	Optical, Photographic, Cinematographic, Measuring, Medical Instruments	899.97	467.98	233.99
18	57	Carpets and Other Textile Floor Coverings	1,088.01	565.77	282.88
19	40	Rubber and Articles Thereof	906.19	471.22	235.61
20	72	Iron and Steel	475.57	247.30	123.65

 

[Spacemarine]

Though I know little economics... but when I look at the entire list of nations on which Trump tariffs have been imposed & take into consideration what US actually imports from them... To me these tariffs appear more of a reward than punishment(for India) in the long run.

Still it will not help Indian economy because we dont have any base setup of take advantages for same and its not lucrative enough to invite FDI, only way India can take benefit is if local billionaires invests in goods and textile manufacturing like Adani and Ambanis.

And most certainly India needs to have a trade deal with US to make it attractive enough for FDI by the time of Trump QUAD visit

 

[karn]

While this is going to effect us badly It looks like if we had actually succeeded in China + 1 our goose would have been cooked now .. Bechara vietnam too toh phans gaya.

 

[Spacemarine]

While this is going to effect us badly It looks like if we had actually succeeded in China + 1 our goose would have been cooked now .. Bechara vietnam too toh phans gaya.

Vietnam got it worst, even worst than chinis it seems

 

[karn]

Vietnam got it worst, even worst than chinis it seems

No its almost equal ... They straight up lose their rerouting advantage. Vietnam tried a lot of things to butter up trump .. they hold zero cards in negotiations.
Thailand is also very fucked ... they are already getting screwed by RCEP and now this .

 

[Nibbler]

Vietnam got it worst, even worst than chinis it seems

nah chinaa is 20+34 (plus the 20 from 2018).

they all stack. chinese imports are being tarriffed at 74% compared to pre 2018

 

[Nibbler]

rough calculations using grok

Country	U.S. Imports (2024, $B)	U.S. Exports (2024, $B)	Goods Trade Deficit with U.S. (2024, $B)	Tariffs Charged to the U.S.A.	U.S.A. Discounted Reciprocal Tariffs
China	427	148	279	67%	34%
European Union	300	120	180	39%	20%
Vietnam	150	20	130	90%	46%
Taiwan	90	40	50	64%	32%
Japan	130	60	70	46%	24%
India	110	20	90	52%	26%
South Korea	100	40	60	50%	25%
Thailand	40	10	30	72%	36%
Switzerland	40	20	20	61%	31%
Indonesia	25	10	15	64%	32%
Malaysia	40	15	25	47%	24%
Cambodia	7	2	5	97%	49%
United Kingdom	60	50	10	10%	10%
South Africa	8	5	3	60%	30%
Brazil	30	25	5	10%	10%
Bangladesh	12	2	10	74%	37%
Singapore	25	35	-10 (surplus)	10%	10%
Israel	20	5	15	33%	17%
Philippines	20	5	15	34%	17%
Chile	10	10	0 (balanced)	10%	10%
Australia	20	35	-15 (surplus)	10%	10%
Pakistan	4	1	3	58%	29%
Turkey	15	5	10	10%	10%
Sri Lanka	3	1	2	88%	44%
Colombia	15	10	5	10%	10%

Table: India’s Top 20 Goods Exports to the U.S. (2023-2024) with Tariff Impact​

S.No.	HS Code	Commodity	Export Value (2023-2024, $M)	52% Tariff Impact ($M)	26% Tariff Impact ($M)
1	71	Natural or Cultured Pearls, Precious/Semi-Precious Stones, Jewelry, Coins	9,948.50	5,173.22	2,586.61
2	30	Pharmaceutical Products	8,079.95	4,201.57	2,100.79
3	27	Mineral Fuels, Oils, Distillation Products, Bituminous Substances, Waxes	5,832.94	3,033.13	1,516.56
4	85	Electrical Machinery, Equipment, Sound Recorders, TV Recorders, Parts	11,081.13	5,762.19	2,881.09
5	84	Nuclear Reactors, Boilers, Machinery, Mechanical Appliances, Parts	6,166.51	3,206.59	1,603.29
6	73	Articles of Iron or Steel	2,793.57	1,452.66	726.33
7	29	Organic Chemicals	2,408.30	1,252.32	626.16
8	62	Apparel and Clothing Accessories, Not Knitted or Crocheted	2,503.86	1,302.01	651.00
9	87	Vehicles (Other than Railway/Tramway), Parts and Accessories	2,647.57	1,376.74	688.37
10	63	Other Made-Up Textile Articles, Sets, Worn Clothing, Rags	2,782.06	1,446.67	723.34
11	61	Apparel and Clothing Accessories, Knitted or Crocheted	2,215.19	1,151.90	575.95
12	03	Fish, Crustaceans, Molluscs, Other Aquatic Invertebrates	1,903.86	990.01	495.00
13	38	Miscellaneous Chemical Products	1,275.37	663.19	331.60
14	39	Plastic and Articles Thereof	1,446.29	752.07	376.04
15	94	Furniture, Bedding, Mattresses, Lamps, Lighting Fittings	1,100.85	572.44	286.22
16	76	Aluminium and Articles Thereof	945.66	491.74	245.87
17	90	Optical, Photographic, Cinematographic, Measuring, Medical Instruments	899.97	467.98	233.99
18	57	Carpets and Other Textile Floor Coverings	1,088.01	565.77	282.88
19	40	Rubber and Articles Thereof	906.19	471.22	235.61
20	72	Iron and Steel	475.57	247.30	123.65

pharmaceuticals are exempt (for now)

 

[ezsasa]

rough calculations using grok

Country	U.S. Imports (2024, $B)	U.S. Exports (2024, $B)	Goods Trade Deficit with U.S. (2024, $B)	Tariffs Charged to the U.S.A.	U.S.A. Discounted Reciprocal Tariffs
China	427	148	279	67%	34%
European Union	300	120	180	39%	20%
Vietnam	150	20	130	90%	46%
Taiwan	90	40	50	64%	32%
Japan	130	60	70	46%	24%
India	110	20	90	52%	26%
South Korea	100	40	60	50%	25%
Thailand	40	10	30	72%	36%
Switzerland	40	20	20	61%	31%
Indonesia	25	10	15	64%	32%
Malaysia	40	15	25	47%	24%
Cambodia	7	2	5	97%	49%
United Kingdom	60	50	10	10%	10%
South Africa	8	5	3	60%	30%
Brazil	30	25	5	10%	10%
Bangladesh	12	2	10	74%	37%
Singapore	25	35	-10 (surplus)	10%	10%
Israel	20	5	15	33%	17%
Philippines	20	5	15	34%	17%
Chile	10	10	0 (balanced)	10%	10%
Australia	20	35	-15 (surplus)	10%	10%
Pakistan	4	1	3	58%	29%
Turkey	15	5	10	10%	10%
Sri Lanka	3	1	2	88%	44%
Colombia	15	10	5	10%	10%

Table: India’s Top 20 Goods Exports to the U.S. (2023-2024) with Tariff Impact​

S.No.	HS Code	Commodity	Export Value (2023-2024, $M)	52% Tariff Impact ($M)	26% Tariff Impact ($M)
1	71	Natural or Cultured Pearls, Precious/Semi-Precious Stones, Jewelry, Coins	9,948.50	5,173.22	2,586.61
2	30	Pharmaceutical Products	8,079.95	4,201.57	2,100.79
3	27	Mineral Fuels, Oils, Distillation Products, Bituminous Substances, Waxes	5,832.94	3,033.13	1,516.56
4	85	Electrical Machinery, Equipment, Sound Recorders, TV Recorders, Parts	11,081.13	5,762.19	2,881.09
5	84	Nuclear Reactors, Boilers, Machinery, Mechanical Appliances, Parts	6,166.51	3,206.59	1,603.29
6	73	Articles of Iron or Steel	2,793.57	1,452.66	726.33
7	29	Organic Chemicals	2,408.30	1,252.32	626.16
8	62	Apparel and Clothing Accessories, Not Knitted or Crocheted	2,503.86	1,302.01	651.00
9	87	Vehicles (Other than Railway/Tramway), Parts and Accessories	2,647.57	1,376.74	688.37
10	63	Other Made-Up Textile Articles, Sets, Worn Clothing, Rags	2,782.06	1,446.67	723.34
11	61	Apparel and Clothing Accessories, Knitted or Crocheted	2,215.19	1,151.90	575.95
12	03	Fish, Crustaceans, Molluscs, Other Aquatic Invertebrates	1,903.86	990.01	495.00
13	38	Miscellaneous Chemical Products	1,275.37	663.19	331.60
14	39	Plastic and Articles Thereof	1,446.29	752.07	376.04
15	94	Furniture, Bedding, Mattresses, Lamps, Lighting Fittings	1,100.85	572.44	286.22
16	76	Aluminium and Articles Thereof	945.66	491.74	245.87
17	90	Optical, Photographic, Cinematographic, Measuring, Medical Instruments	899.97	467.98	233.99
18	57	Carpets and Other Textile Floor Coverings	1,088.01	565.77	282.88
19	40	Rubber and Articles Thereof	906.19	471.22	235.61
20	72	Iron and Steel	475.57	247.30	123.65

rough estimate on top 20 exports to U.S, after factoring tariff exemptions

S.No.	HS Code	Commodity	Export Value (2023-2024, $M)	Taxable Value After Exemptions ($M)	52% Tariff Impact ($M)	26% Tariff Impact ($M)
1	85	Electrical Machinery, Equipment, Sound Recorders, TV Recorders, Parts	11,081.13	7,756.79	4,033.53	2,016.77
2	71	Natural or Cultured Pearls, Precious/Semi-Precious Stones, Jewelry, Coins	9,948.50	8,953.65	4,655.90	2,327.95
3	30	Pharmaceutical Products	8,079.95	0 (fully exempt)	0	0
4	84	Nuclear Reactors, Boilers, Machinery, Mechanical Appliances, Parts	6,166.51	6,166.51	3,206.59	1,603.29
5	27	Mineral Fuels, Oils, Distillation Products, Bituminous Substances, Waxes	5,832.94	0 (fully exempt)	0	0
6	73	Articles of Iron or Steel	2,793.57	0 (fully exempt)	0	0
7	29	Organic Chemicals	2,408.30	2,408.30	1,252.32	626.16
8	62	Apparel and Clothing Accessories, Not Knitted or Crocheted	2,503.86	2,503.86	1,302.01	651.00
9	87	Vehicles (Other than Railway/Tramway), Parts and Accessories	2,647.57	0 (fully exempt)	0	0
10	63	Other Made-Up Textile Articles, Sets, Worn Clothing, Rags	2,782.06	2,782.06	1,446.67	723.34
11	61	Apparel and Clothing Accessories, Knitted or Crocheted	2,215.19	2,215.19	1,151.90	575.95
12	03	Fish, Crustaceans, Molluscs, Other Aquatic Invertebrates	1,903.86	1,903.86	990.01	495.00
13	38	Miscellaneous Chemical Products	1,275.37	1,275.37	663.19	331.60
14	39	Plastic and Articles Thereof	1,446.29	1,446.29	752.07	376.04
15	94	Furniture, Bedding, Mattresses, Lamps, Lighting Fittings	1,100.85	1,100.85	572.44	286.22
16	76	Aluminium and Articles Thereof	945.66	0 (fully exempt)	0	0
17	90	Optical, Photographic, Cinematographic, Measuring, Medical Instruments	899.97	899.97	467.98	233.99
18	57	Carpets and Other Textile Floor Coverings	1,088.01	1,088.01	565.77	282.88
19	40	Rubber and Articles Thereof	906.19	906.19	471.22	235.61
20	72	Iron and Steel	475.57	0 (fully exempt)	0	0

 

[Nutcracker]

We need a little bit of diversification. Or settle a good deal with USA.
And Wumaos have to find a new relabelling center.

export to US as percentage of GDP for India, China, EU and Vietnam

 

[why so serious?]

These will not be final and will be heavily reduced in the coming weeks.

What’s more funny is that even Bdesh (37%) and Pak 29%) are hit with massive tariffs that will sink their already sinking economy.

Our economic rivals Vietnam (45%) and China (34%) are also hit with way higher tariffs which means China can no more re-route goods via Vietnam.

Overall I think India will come out stronger relative to our rivals after all negotiations.

This is a really good opportunity for India in the textiles sector to hit countries like BD who are facing higher tariffs than us.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.li...nald-trump-us-tariffs/amp-11743653573020.html