Indian Economy

[why so serious?]

yes, multiple times. ever since he started getting involved in these trade negotiations, he does not spare anyone.

here's one.

View: https://youtu.be/T3ZxHqq4FCM
======
here's the speech..

View: https://youtu.be/ghJJzqiXrZs

Even the VCs need to be openly scolded like this , any IITian offering a service through a website/app or opening a fintech/edtech gets the most and instant funding , these kind of startups are media favorites as well with the founders being elevated to stardom.

Manufacturing startups always get the crumbs when it comes to funding and less media attention.

 

[eastern_bhartiya]

Even the VCs need to be openly scolded like this , any IITian offering a service through a website/app or opening a fintech/edtech gets the most and instant funding , these kind of startups are media favorites as well with the founders being elevated to stardom.

Manufacturing startups always get the crumbs when it comes to funding and less media attention.

a lot of start-ups created by IITians are glorified logistics companies, their only job is move things around and sell. Most big money dhandos themselves have gotten here they have by doing same logistics things, so they naturally thing these sectors are good.

Some have broken the mold like Kalyani group by venturing into artillery and SSS defense, who used to manufacture springs. Creating something new naturally comes with many "setbacks" like failed products, time overruns, increased cost, what really matters is how much trust these guys have in themselves.

 

[ezsasa]

Even the VCs need to be openly scolded like this , any IITian offering a service through a website/app or opening a fintech/edtech gets the most and instant funding , these kind of startups are media favorites as well with the founders being elevated to stardom.

Manufacturing startups always get the crumbs when it comes to funding and less media attention.

i have written on this before, it seems to be the case that most of our VCs are blindly aping their western counterparts, and worse taking instructions from murican based analysts.

murican instructions are being deceptively presented as analysis to Indian market.

decades ago, murican investors decided all manufacturing will go to china and back office work will go to India. that trend continues till today. make in india and UPI came and disrupted things a bit, otherwise numbers that went into startups would have looked even more lopsided.

 

[ezsasa]

a lot of start-ups created by IITians are glorified logistics companies, their only job is move things around and sell. Most big money dhandos themselves have gotten here they have by doing same logistics things, so they naturally thing these sectors are good.

Some have broken the mold like Kalyani group by venturing into artillery and SSS defense, who used to manufacture springs. Creating something new naturally comes with many "setbacks" like failed products, time overruns, increased cost, what really matters is how much trust these guys have in themselves.

logistics is a key area for India, it was neglected for decades, that is why so much money is going there taking advantage of infra spending. the amount of money companies used to spend on logistics pre-GST used to be higher than today, it is a national mission to bringing down logistics cost, that is why you are seeing so many transport related infra projects.

all this gormint money could have gone into making town and cities look good, but that won't bring down cost of doing business and control inflation.

 

[eastern_bhartiya]

i have written on this before, it seems to be the case that most of our VCs are blindly aping their western counterparts, and worse taking instructions from murican based analysts.

murican instructions are being deceptively presented as analysis to Indian market.

decades ago, murican investors decided all manufacturing will go to china and back office work will go to India. that trend continues till today. make in india and UPI came and disrupted things a bit, otherwise numbers that went into startups would have looked even more lopsided.

back when apple/foxxcon was starting out manufacturing in India, there was an absolutely relentless attack from both western and CCP-funded media , i have seen stuff like muh caste, muh human rights, india doesn't have stable electricity, india is lawless, Indians don't have skill, there would be corruption and what not. There was also a fake report that stated something like 50% of all screen made in India iphones are failing, which turns out was a controlled test and not in final manufacturing phase.

As we grow more in manufacturing attacks will grow more severe, thankfully govt has neutralized NGO networks, most they can do is propaganda about "issues" in India. recent example is whole PLI fiasco , where it was reported as some colossal failure by mediawallahs .

 

[Ajayant Tripathi]

I think we will see more industrialization as our domestic market will grow and their is a limit we can do without locally manufacturing. For example: Real Estate need to be developed in India. So, will be other things.

The question that is inkling me for the past hours is the promise of infrastructure boom. As the America devalues USD our rupee will strength and it will cause a deflationary action in manufactured goods. It will also impact our exports and we will need to find the conduits in our own markets.

So, I see that govt. can use it as an oppurtunity to stimulate the economy and may go big bang on infrastructure more. Chinese went overboard with infra in response to 2008 GFC.

Doesn't the current scenario provide the same oppurtunity to the govt where we have the fiscal space to print more money as USD is devaluing itself and use it to finance our infrastructure projects.??

 

[GodEmperorDoom]

I think we will see more industrialization as our domestic market will grow and their is a limit we can do without locally manufacturing. For example: Real Estate need to be developed in India. So, will be other things.

The question that is inkling me for the past hours is the promise of infrastructure boom. As the America devalues USD our rupee will strength and it will cause a deflationary action in manufactured goods. It will also impact our exports and we will need to find the conduits in our own markets.

So, I see that govt. can use it as an oppurtunity to stimulate the economy and may go big bang on infrastructure more. Chinese went overboard with infra in response to 2008 GFC.

Doesn't the current scenario provide the same oppurtunity to the govt where we have the fiscal space to print more money as USD is devaluing itself and use it to finance our infrastructure projects.??

Unless something drastic such as UPI happens in Real Estate, Infrastructure can't be developed. Have you seen? Half of the Infra budget goes to paying bunch of greedy assholes almost 2 to 3 times market money. Since it's government money, these greedy assholes are squeezing as much money as they can. Not only that, the entire Real Estate has become insane such that no one can afford living. If we can't tackle Real Estate, we can't develop.

 

[concard]

I knew this day would come. That is why I was pushing for Energy and food independence to shield us from external forces.

Energy independence
According to reports, there is close to 25% of India's land area which is barren. Now that India has become independent of solar imports, imagine if we take advantage of putting solar panels on this barren land. Let me give you the math here:

• It takes 25 square km to install 1 GW of Solar plant. Now extrapolate that number. In 1000 square km we can install 40 GW. In 10,000 square km it will be 400 GW. So in conclusion with just 1% of India's land that is 30,000 square km we can install 1200 GW i.e., 1.2 Terawatts. For reference, today we have total installed capacity of all sources of 450 GW.
• And this is just Solar we are talking about. We haven't talked about Wind where we have a potential to add another 1000 GW onshore and offshore. We can use excess renewables to produce Green Hydrogen. Add Solar rooftop we will be producing enough energy for the country to be a industrial giant without destruction of environment.
• Use Coal, Natural Gas, Hydro, and nuclear energy as a base load we can rapidly shrink our crude oil imports. With EV's and Green hydrogen we can eliminate Diesel vehicles to a large extent.

Food security

It is a blessing that we Indians are largely vegetarian and the ones who eat meat still are vegetarian most days of the week. If we plan our cities well where we can house more people in less area, we will have a vast land for agriculture and forests. Now introduce modern agricultural techniques with less usage of chemicals along with it, we can produce enough food for the country and also export it to other countries.

Before talking about manufacturing we need to fix these issues. If we are dependent on energy and food from outside it will be a disaster. There is a reason sanctions have not worked against Russia. Russia is self reliant in food and has enough fossil fuel reserves. With their less population size they are shielded from any harsh sanctions. If anything sanctioning Russia is like sanctioning Europe.


See what Adani is doing. Using agricultural land to build Solar parks and screwing the farmers who gave the land to Solar park. This is in TN.


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oqEM8zSMj_o&ab_channel=TheMigrationStory

 

[ezsasa]

See what Adani is doing. Using agricultural land to build Solar parks and screwing the farmers who gave the land to Solar park. This is in TN.


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oqEM8zSMj_o&ab_channel=TheMigrationStory

that video is made by reuters foundation employee..

 

[Azaad]

that video is made by reuters foundation employee..

View attachment 29512

View attachment 29511

Yes but are the allegations true or false or hyped up ? Moreover an old MO by the dispossessed is to try all kind of tactics usually at the behest of vested interests for better remuneration .

Disclaimer : Haven't seen the video though it kept popping up regularly in my feed.

 

[concard]

that video is made by reuters foundation employee..

View attachment 29512

View attachment 29511

I don't have a great respect for Reuters. But still using agricultural land to build Solar parks is stupid. Ours is a populated country. If we do not take care of proper urban planning, food security, and energy independence we will be doomed. Imagine a country as big as ours being at the mercy of other countries for food and energy. Not a good strategy for the future.

 

[ezsasa]

I think we will see more industrialization as our domestic market will grow and their is a limit we can do without locally manufacturing. For example: Real Estate need to be developed in India. So, will be other things.

The question that is inkling me for the past hours is the promise of infrastructure boom. As the America devalues USD our rupee will strength and it will cause a deflationary action in manufactured goods. It will also impact our exports and we will need to find the conduits in our own markets.

So, I see that govt. can use it as an oppurtunity to stimulate the economy and may go big bang on infrastructure more. Chinese went overboard with infra in response to 2008 GFC.

Doesn't the current scenario provide the same oppurtunity to the govt where we have the fiscal space to print more money as USD is devaluing itself and use it to finance our infrastructure projects.??

printing more currency than required devalues the currency, meaning we will end up paying more for goods because there is more cash floating the in the system. not good.

RBI maintains the cash supply as percentage of GDP, when GDP rises cash supply will automatically rise. might as well aim for more value addition in goods and service, than focus on printing currency.

UPA did this currency printing post 2008, and during chini virus period modi was advised to print currency by global exfarts but he didn't. result : inflation under control.

imitating chini system is not a good idea, their fundamentals are very different than rest of the world.

 

[Ajayant Tripathi]

Unless something drastic such as UPI happens in Real Estate, Infrastructure can't be developed. Have you seen? Half of the Infra budget goes to paying bunch of greedy assholes almost 2 to 3 times market money. Since it's government money, these greedy assholes are squeezing as much money as they can. Not only that, the entire Real Estate has become insane such that no one can afford living. If we can't tackle Real Estate, we can't develop.

Exactly. This worries me too. We have a sudden oppurtunity where govt. can print money without worrying too much about inflation. But unfortunately our system can't just absorb let alone digest it.
We have hit our limits in developing roads. Can't scale it more, Indian Railways can't just scale its capex, defence is also surrendering money. Urban Ministry had to lapse its allocation where some of the money was spent on useless exercise like green shades over intersections. Real Estate is expensive to name a few.

I think still the easiest thing the govt can do is accelerate road building in our hinterland. MP, OD, CG, Easter MH, all need good road network. Once we have a good enough 4-6 lane expressways the supply of highway connected land will increase stagnating the appreciation in land prices.


I am most worried about our IR network. The progress in it is just abysmal. No yard remodelling, no correction of route geometry, no rapid laying of new tracks. There is a lot we can do with it. The govt. should revive the state-centre partnership based SPV.

I hope some deregulation unfollows and tyranny of rent seekers and compliance is tamed.

 

[Ajayant Tripathi]

printing more currency than required devalues the currency, meaning we will end up paying more for goods because there is more cash floating the in the system. not good.

RBI maintains the cash supply as percentage of GDP, when GDP rises cash supply will automatically rise. might as well aim for more value addition in goods and service, than focus on printing currency.

UPA did this currency printing post 2008, and during chini virus period modi was advised to print currency by global exfarts but he didn't. result : inflation under control.

imitating chini system is not a good idea, their fundamentals are very different than rest of the world.

There is a difference in need to print money. Deflation is more dangerous than inflation. The UPA era money printing was to stimulate economy by increasing liquidity. It rightly so led to huge inflation.

However this time around we have the threat of deflation. This will be a small fraction from say fall in oil prices. But will it lead to fall in consumer prices. Not much but surely will increase profit margins of the corporates.This is most dangerous as the margins are increasing without increase in quality of the product. It decreases our competitiveness. It also exposes us to foreign dumping.

This is why i am saying govt. instead of letting the money accrued by some. Must increase money supply. May not be by banking channels. But via infrastructure build up like more roads, more metros etc.

 

[eastern_bhartiya]

I don't have a great respect for Reuters. But still using agricultural land to build Solar parks is stupid. Ours is a populated country. If we do not take care of proper urban planning, food security, and energy independence we will be doomed. Imagine a country as big as ours being at the mercy of other countries for food and energy. Not a good strategy for the future.

Well its not adani's fault that, our grid infra is shit, creating solar parks in barren land currently is not feasible because there no way to get that power to where it is needed.

 

[trombone]

Even the VCs need to be openly scolded like this , any IITian offering a service through a website/app or opening a fintech/edtech gets the most and instant funding , these kind of startups are media favorites as well with the founders being elevated to stardom.

Manufacturing startups always get the crumbs when it comes to funding and less media attention.

don't be so serious ...


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qZrKtxL08Eo

 

[ezsasa]

There is a difference in need to print money. Deflation is more dangerous than inflation. The UPA era money printing was to stimulate economy by increasing liquidity. It rightly so led to huge inflation.

However this time around we have the threat of deflation. This will be a small fraction from say fall in oil prices. But will it lead to fall in consumer prices. Not much but surely will increase profit margins of the corporates.This is most dangerous as the margins are increasing without increase in quality of the product. It decreases our competitiveness. It also exposes us to foreign dumping.

This is why i am saying govt. instead of letting the money accrued by some. Must increase money supply. May not be by banking channels. But via infrastructure build up like more roads, more metros etc.

i am yet to fully figure out the impact of USD devaluation on Indian economy, do help me understand this bit.

our USD-INR exchange rate is a factor of trade deficit, for now trade deficit is 75 billion $, it is largely following the same trajectory except for 2022.


and supposedly earth shattering trump announcements has hardly made any dent in exchange rate, it's already recovering.




considering these, how is USD devaluation directly connected to deflation worries within India without some major sudden jump in exports which is unlikely in short term?

 

[crazywithmath]

i am yet to fully figure out the impact of USD devaluation on Indian economy, do help me understand this bit.

our USD-INR exchange rate is a factor of trade deficit, for now trade deficit is 75 billion $, it is largely following the same trajectory except for 2022.

View attachment 29514
and supposedly earth shattering trump announcements has hardly made any dent in exchange rate, it's already recovering.

View attachment 29515


considering these, how is USD devaluation directly connected to deflation worries within India without some major sudden jump in exports which is unlikely in short term?

RBIwallahs are likely gaimg the exchange rate, probably shoring up the reserves instead. USDINR would have plunged below 84.5 otherwise.

 

[Hari Sud]

A Bumper Wheat Harvest in Punjab

The rabi crop is being harvested in Punjab, and I couldn’t resist taking a detour to witness it firsthand. I deliberately took a circuitous route from Chandigarh towards Ludhiana, eager to observe the crop conditions in the fields. I’m no agricultural scientist, but even a layman can appreciate the vast golden expanse of ripened wheat stretching across the countryside.

Though I’ve been feeling unwell, I wasn’t about to miss this opportunity—especially since the driver was available today.

Just a few days ago, The Tribune reported an optimistic outlook for wheat production. Wheat cultivation area has expanded by 7% this year, and timely rains between December and February have set the stage for a bumper harvest.

Across all wheat-producing states, the total wheat yield this season is expected to reach 115 million tons, a significant increase from 104 million tons last year. Similar favourable conditions have been reported across the Gangetic plain—great news for farmers.

While Uttar Pradesh remains the largest wheat producer, most of its harvest is consumed within the state. Punjab and Haryana, on the other hand, play a crucial role in supplying wheat to the central pool for national storage.

The government deserves credit for its support—providing farmers with quality seeds, electricity, and fertilizers, and even aerial pesticide spraying, all free of charge. Wheat prices in Punjab stand at ₹2,425 per quintal (MSP), with most state governments offering farmers an additional ₹150 per quintal as a bonus. With increased production and stable prices, farmers should be thriving, yet some still express discontent, often due to political influences.

One downside, however, has been the depletion of water reserves. The lack of rainfall between February and March led to extensive irrigation, draining reservoirs to sustain the fields.

With an estimated 10 million tons of surplus, international buyers are already lining up—a promising development for the agricultural economy.

The prosperity of Punjab’s farmers is evident along the roadside. Where once stood modest thatched huts, modern cement houses now dominate the landscape. I passed multiple grain harvesters at work, a testament to mechanized efficiency and progress.

In the next three weeks, the entire crop will be harvested. And with increased earnings this season, Vaisakhi on April 14th promises to be a grand celebration.

Cheers to a fruitful harvest

 

[ezsasa]

RBIwallahs are likely gaimg the exchange rate, probably shoring up the reserves instead. USDINR would have plunged below 84.5 otherwise.

we'll have to keep a watch on forex reserves and RBI USD sales for a month atleast, incase there is a pattern.