Indian Economy

[crazywithmath]

expand on this, especially electricity.

As far as electricity consumption is concerned,

April-July -> Robust growth. Sometimes, 10%+
August-October -> Flat growth. Consumption actually declined in August.

But we did 20%+ in October, 2023 so the consumption numbers in the past few months are being offset by a very very high base.

 

[ezsasa]

As far as electricity consumption is concerned,

April-July -> Robust growth. Sometimes, 10%+
August-October -> Flat growth. Consumption actually declined in August.

But we did 20%+ in October, 2023 so the consumption numbers in the past few months are being offset by a very very high base.

and from a macro picture per annum, we can also factor in work that is being done to upgrade and build new transmission lines(new 10-15k ckm per annum ), which have an impact on transmission losses. last i checked, transmission losses have dropped considerably, should add efficiency between generation and consumption. some amount of transmission loss is always going to be there.

and the other factor, which i was pleasantly surprised the other day is that there is 14 gw roof top solar installed capacity, growing at 1-3 gw per annum. will have to check if these numbers are being counted in total generation numbers, if not it would end up looking like a slight dip in overall consumption numbers.

basically the focus on efficiency which started with that LED bulb project in modi first term, is still ongoing. which is a good thing.

 

[angryindian]

View: https://x.com/afristats_polls/status/1850976798110335471

How does pakistan even appear on this list???????

Pakistan is an upcoming superpower that will land on the moon.


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WmNn4oQdum4

 

[FalconSlayers]

As far as electricity consumption is concerned,

April-July -> Robust growth. Sometimes, 10%+
August-October -> Flat growth. Consumption actually declined in August.

But we did 20%+ in October, 2023 so the consumption numbers in the past few months are being offset by a very very high base.

Yes, but growth has been subdued (declined) for past few months. October is still understandable.



This is the actual reason for economic slowdown, gormint has reached less than 30% of fiscal deficit target in H1 of FY2024-25. Which means at best they'll hit 60% when the fiscal year ends. In short, they've spent around 40% less than what they should've had. And that reduction in government spending has slowed down economy.

 

[ezsasa]

Yes, but growth has been subdued (declined) for past few months. October is still understandable.



This is the actual reason for economic slowdown, gormint has reached less than 30% of fiscal deficit target in H1 of FY2024-25. Which means at best they'll hit 60% when the fiscal year ends. In short, they've spent around 40% less than what they should've had. And that reduction in government spending has slowed down economy.
View attachment 13931

that's about 2 lakh crore shortfall from gormint side because of the elections.

how's GFCF looking from private sector side, are there any major ongoing company projects on the horizon that can compensate for this 2 lakh crore?

 

[FalconSlayers]

that's about 2 lakh crore shortfall from gormint side because of the elections.

how's GFCF looking from private sector side, are there any major ongoing company projects on the horizon that can compensate for this 2 lakh crore?

Maybe, but how much I can't confirm. Since these are data provided by market research firms.

 

[bhadhusha]

firstly, it is a bloomberg article. we never know what scheme is being played thru them.

even if take what is being said in the article at face value, if consumers are not spending in the items listed in the article, they must be spending/investing somewhere else. for that we have wait a few months for more data to come out.

Do we know what was the consumption spending for the last Q this year and last year, where does one check them. Is there a govt source to check consumption , spending etc ?

 

[bhadhusha]

The BS level in this article can be gauged by this statement.




This segment that "used" to be 80% of marutis sales 5 years ago is not growing .. Well no shit Indians have started gravitating towards higher end SUVs.. this dude is crying that his bottom of the barrel segment is suffering.. This is an indictment of his business .. not of Indias.




1-2 % You say ? Well somebody is lying.

Bajaj Auto Monthly Sales Performance Report for 2024 | Bajaj Auto

Check out the monthly sales performance report for Bajaj Auto for the year 2024.

www.bajajauto.com

View attachment 13904

Indian 2 Wheeler Sales Figures – September 2024

OEMwise Sales Snapshot –Two Wheeler Modelwise Sales for September 2024 –

www.autopunditz.com

What kind of logic is this , so you mean to say our Middle class base grew and went to upper middle or higher class so they can afford high ends but at the same time , our lower middle class hasn't grown much consider this is our core segment , majority of our population

Thanks for the links , Well atleast the Bajaj numbers are saying different , would love to see how the overall 2 wheeler market is doing,

 

[ezsasa]

Do we know what was the consumption spending for the last Q this year and last year, where does one check them. Is there a govt source to check consumption , spending etc ?

mospi GDP data, comes out 2 months after the quarter end.

https://www.mospi.gov.in/sites/default/files/press_release/NAD_PR_30082024.pdf

 

[bhadhusha]

As someone in the Automotive industry now I will say a few things

The demand is there, just not like last year (11%).
This month's current estimate
Maruti -205000
Toyota -29000
Tata & Hyundai - 59000 each
Kia 22000 and Toyota 29000

What Maruti is crying about is that the lower-end demand of the market is getting hammered due to interest rates being high for a long time and want it lowered ( Probably going to be done by December)

The 8 lacs car figure is absolute nonsense. Think about this: all car manufacturers don't have that kind of storage capacity, let alone dealers.

Just one more point: we exported a lot this month as well.

The interest part is what is hurting the most here

 

[bhadhusha]

The actual reason why economy slowed down
View attachment 13909

How long are we going to be solely depended on Capex, the public needs money in their , cheaper lows

 

[ezsasa]

How long are we going to be solely depended on Capex, the public needs money in their , cheaper lows

that's just for this fiscal's GDP calculations.

today's capex, is tomorrow's either manufacturing output(private sector spending) or lower logistics cost(gormint spending).

spending 1 ₹ on gormint infra capex today, will start giving 3-5 ₹ returns for decades.
private sector capex spending means, they are betting on tomorrow's growth.

 

[karn]

What kind of logic is this , so you mean to say our Middle class base grew and went to upper middle or higher class so they can afford high ends but at the same time , our lower middle class hasn't grown much consider this is our core segment , majority of our population

Thanks for the links , Well atleast the Bajaj numbers are saying different , would love to see how the overall 2 wheeler market is doing,

Car ownership is only 8% of households in our country and by no means are these the "core segment" leave alone the majority of our population. The "middle class" rides 2 wheelers .. And I have given data for 2 wheeler sales.
And yes it is a case of preference. It is far more prestigious to drive a royal enfield or some other higher end bike rather than an alto even though the latter is far more expensive or heck just take a second hand car. So its not surprising to see people stick to 2 wheelers until they have money for a 8 + lakh car . In my experience atleast in large metros cheap cars are only for young couples that absolutely need a car for taking their children or as a second car for wealthier folks.

 

[FalconSlayers]

How long are we going to be solely depended on Capex, the public needs money in their , cheaper lows

Capex is necessary dude, you can't expect FinMin to cut on capex and expect GDP to grow. All serious developing nations invest on capex.

 

[bhadhusha]

Capex is necessary dude, you can't expect FinMin to cut on capex and expect GDP to grow. All serious developing nations invest on capex.

No saying it is not , but just saying how long until the private sectors pulls up. Does someone have numbers on the equations are in other developing nations ?

 

[ezsasa]

No saying it is not , but just saying how long until the private sectors pulls up. Does someone have numbers on the equations are in other developing nations ?

outside of china, i doubt any other emerging economy is spending in absolute numbers more than what India is doing.