Indian Economy

[Spacemarine]

Gormint and its supporters itself forgets what one of the farm laws was for when every year you have onion and tomato being sold for 100 rs+ /kilo and there is talk of controlling 'food inflation'. Bhugto abhi Khalion ki appeasement karne ke bad.

Hopefully Modi learnt the lesson, if you appease a community they always become more aggressive, sicks have lost their pumped up fake goodwill that was one of the positive came out of it.

States can make their own similar agricultural laws no one stopping them.

 

[FalconSlayers]

In 2014 it was a speculative promise from deep state that they would shift all the manufacturing from China to India. Gobhiji took the words seriously and started the make in India initiative instead of investing much in r&d and creating an ecosystem.
10 years later no meaningful manufacturing has been taken out from China and the one that did did not meet the quality that people were expecting.
Russia helped indian economy from 2022 much more than burgericans ever did

When your entire fake in India scheme is to bring more foreign OEMs to assemble imported stuff here, you can never scale up. We literally incentivise Foxconn to assemble imported components here for creating a few thousand jobs. Yes, I know that supply chains are created in later phases, localisation increases, but the localisation has a limit. Even china doesn't make majority of iPhones, so whats their obsession with throwing it's production numbers? Which even in absolute terms is just double digit billion USD?

India should've been incentivising our own industry and OEMs, through R&D funds and industrial subsidies while inviting foreign OEMs at the same time.

 

[Spacemarine]

When your entire fake in India scheme is to bring more foreign OEMs to assemble imported stuff here, you can never scale up. We literally incentivise Foxconn to assemble imported components here for creating a few thousand jobs. Yes, I know that supply chains are created in later phases, localisation increases, but the localisation has a limit. Even china doesn't make majority of iPhones, so whats their obsession with throwing it's production numbers? Which even in absolute terms is just double digit billion USD?

India should've been incentivising our own industry and OEMs, through R&D funds and industrial subsidies while inviting foreign OEMs at the same time.

India literally has one of the most incentivised industry, nothing comes out of it.

India companies just wait for JVs with outside manufacturers which brings in money, machinery and regular pipelines of orders,
Have you ever seen any Indian companies even investing even world average on R&D? Thats how our industry is built.

 

[Miss Firing]

https://swarajyamag.com/news-brief/counterproductive-fiscal-policy-economists-criticise-modi-government-as-gdp-growth-hits-lowest-in-seven-quarters

'Counterproductive Fiscal Policy': Economists Criticise Modi Government As GDP Growth Hits Lowest In Seven Quarters​

 

[sameer]

When your entire fake in India scheme is to bring more foreign OEMs to assemble imported stuff here, you can never scale up. We literally incentivise Foxconn to assemble imported components here for creating a few thousand jobs. Yes, I know that supply chains are created in later phases, localisation increases, but the localisation has a limit. Even china doesn't make majority of iPhones, so whats their obsession with throwing it's production numbers? Which even in absolute terms is just double digit billion USD?

India should've been incentivising our own industry and OEMs, through R&D funds and industrial subsidies while inviting foreign OEMs at the same time.

Electronics is fine, more investment and integration will happen at a later level. We're still in baby steps in that industry. Solar is also doing ok.

Where he failed badly is labour intensive manufacturing. Textiles, furniture, Shoes, apparel, Toys and general white goods stuff. Anything that has the potential to employ the masses just hasn't taken off.

 

[ezsasa]

India should've been incentivising our own industry and OEMs, through R&D funds and industrial subsidies while inviting foreign OEMs at the same time.

this conversation is going in circles for a few years now, let's move the needle forward a bit, now that we have recent examples that can be cited.

take ola, mahindra and ather EVs, those came out of domestic r&d, it's not like public are buying them because there is a domestic r&d component in those products. Indian public's priority is value for money, Indian public is not saying "take my money, and please keep innovating".

since this is a defence forum, defence is a sector where there is active and visible r&d spending. and we are seeing how orders are panning out in each product category.

in a market where customer's top priority is value for money, some one has to pay for the high risk proposition and failures.

if banks fund such risks, news headlines will say "growing NPAs".
if RBI funds such risks, news headlines will say "growing interest rates".
if gormint fund such risks, news headlines will say "growing interest payments".
if companies fund such risks, news headlines will say "XYZ company has not been profitable for n years".

any direction taken, there will be risks and tradeoffs.

point being, r&d investment is not a binary proposition of "every one should do it or no one is doing it".

i think we need to dig a bit deeper into commercial aspect of r&d spending, other than news paper opeds that deal with this subject at macro level, not sure how much info is available for Indian scenarios.

 

[Spacemarine]

https://swarajyamag.com/news-brief/counterproductive-fiscal-policy-economists-criticise-modi-government-as-gdp-growth-hits-lowest-in-seven-quarters

'Counterproductive Fiscal Policy': Economists Criticise Modi Government As GDP Growth Hits Lowest In Seven Quarters​

View attachment 16953

GDP growth rate will go upwards not all data comes at once couple of decimal points up, also India needs to start rebase its GDP last time I think it was in 2015, lots of regions and sectors are a miss.

Again socialism on the scale Modi has started will push inflation up, the solution is to keep up the Govt spending on productive sectors not reduce it.

More socialism should be countered by More Govt spending on Infrastructure.

 

[ezsasa]

GDP growth rate will go upwards not all data comes at once couple of decimal points up, also India needs to start rebase its GDP last time I think it was in 2015, lots of regions and sectors are a miss.

Again socialism on the scale Modi has started will push inflation up, the solution is to keep up the Govt spending on productive sectors not reduce it.

More socialism should be countered by More Govt spending on Infrastructure.

which socialism is this, schemes from budget documents?

https://prsindia.org/files/budget/budget_parliament/2024/Union_Budget_Analysis_2024-25.pdf

 

[Spacemarine]

which socialism is this, schemes from budget documents?

https://prsindia.org/files/budget/budget_parliament/2024/Union_Budget_Analysis_2024-25.pdf

80 crore getting free food
subsidised electricity, fuel
Free healthcare, medicines
Ladli behna lots of them

that’s socialism no country does this on India’s scale.

Modi is the true Samajwadi the biggest socialist leader ever in modern history..

He can change the name from BJP to SJP it will be better suited

 

[bakofbakchod]

Electronics is fine, more investment and integration will happen at a later level. We're still in baby steps in that industry. Solar is also doing ok.

Where he failed badly is labour intensive manufacturing. Textiles, furniture, Shoes, apparel, Toys and general white goods stuff. Anything that has the potential to employ the masses just hasn't taken off.

Everyday a mega factory goes to vietnam. 15000 workers! is there a single garment factory in vishwacoolie that employs this many workers? Useless BJP has been talking about PM mitra park for 4 years, and to date not a single one has finished work (most have yet to start construction).

Nghe An to welcome $590 million textiles project

Mega Textile Singapore Private Limited will invest in a garment and textile project worth $590 million in the central province of Nghe An.

vir.com.vn

How India can compete in labour-intensive manufacturing

Lessons from a superstar exporter

www.economist.com

Our biggest garment exporter, Shahi Exports, himself said that India's labour act prevents them from opening big factories. Instead they are forced to open small multiple factories, which significantly dimishes economies of scale

 

[bakofbakchod]

Absolute masterstroke of GDP growth from BJPee

• Real GDP growth for Q2 FY 2024-25: 5.4% (down from 8.1% in Q2 FY 2023-24).
• Agriculture & Allied sector growth: 3.5% in Q2 FY 2024-25, showing a recovery.
• Manufacturing sector growth slowed to 2.2% in Q2 FY 2024-25.
• Construction sector growth: 7.7% in Q2 FY 2024-25, supported by domestic steel consumption.
• Tertiary sector growth: 7.1% in Q2 FY 2024-25 (up from 6.0% in Q2 FY 2023-24).
• Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE): Grew by 6.0% in Q2 FY 2024-25.
• Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE): Rebounded to a 4.4% growth.
• Mining & Quarrying experienced negative growth (-0.1%) in Q2 FY 2024-25.
• Nominal GDP growth: 8.0% in Q2 FY 2024-25, valued at ₹76.60 lakh crore.
• Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF): Grew by 5.4% in Q2 FY 2024-25.
• Exports grew by 2.8%, and imports declined by 2.9% in Q2 FY 2024-25.
• Passenger traffic at airports saw a 7.8% growth, while cargo traffic increased by 16.1%.
• Commercial vehicle sales dropped by 11.0% in Q2 FY 2024-25.
• Aggregate bank credits increased by 13.7%, while deposits grew by 10.8%.
• CPI inflation: 4.2% in Q2 FY 2024-25, indicating a decline from the previous quarter.
• Index of Industrial Production (IIP): Manufacturing grew by 3.1%, mining shrank by 0.1%.



Absolute state of this vishwacoolie. $5 trillion before 2030 seems impossible.

View: https://x.com/ani_digital/status/1862454319439585474?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1862454319439585474%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=

How did construction grow at 7.7% when cement volume growth was 2% and prices declined by 10%?

 

[ezsasa]

80 crore getting free food
subsidised electricity, fuel
Free healthcare, medicines
Ladli behna lots of them

that’s socialism no country does this on India’s scale.

Modi is the true Samajwadi the biggest socialist leader ever in modern history..

He can change the name from BJP to SJP it will be better suited

whether these are causing inflation, more data needs to come. % of budget allocations for 100% centrally funded schemes have been dropping since modi first term.

within inflation there are good kind and bad kind. good kind is where consumption patterns have changed and market trying to adjust to a new pattern, and bad kind is the one that exists in argentina and up until recently in western countries(excess cash in the system). it doesn't look like we have large amount of excess cash in the system.

for example, during this 5kg free rice scheme, consumption of egg, meat and fruits have increased, which is good. whether causation or correlation, more study is required to be done by gyanis.

and moreover bringing politics into economy related discussions, ruins the objectivity of the discussions anyways. we are a socialist country as per constitution after all.

 

[ezsasa]

this conversation is going in circles for a few years now, let's move the needle forward a bit, now that we have recent examples that can be cited.

take ola, mahindra and ather EVs, those came out of domestic r&d, it's not like public are buying them because there is a domestic r&d component in those products. Indian public's priority is value for money, Indian public is not saying "take my money, and please keep innovating".

since this is a defence forum, defence is a sector where there is active and visible r&d spending. and we are seeing how orders are panning out in each product category.

in a market where customer's top priority is value for money, some one has to pay for the high risk proposition and failures.

if banks fund such risks, news headlines will say "growing NPAs".
if RBI funds such risks, news headlines will say "growing interest rates".
if gormint fund such risks, news headlines will say "growing interest payments".
if companies fund such risks, news headlines will say "XYZ company has not been profitable for n years".

any direction taken, there will be risks and tradeoffs.

point being, r&d investment is not a binary proposition of "every one should do it or no one is doing it".

i think we need to dig a bit deeper into commercial aspect of r&d spending, other than news paper opeds that deal with this subject at macro level, not sure how much info is available for Indian scenarios.

when folks here talk about r&d, what exactly are the expectations ?

a) fundamental research
b) new consumer product category
c) iterative consumer product innovation

temptation would be to say, all three because it is somebody else's headache. do narrow it down objectively with past and present state of affairs in mind.

-for fundamental research there won't be enough monies outside of gormint, because most of the time the country is trying to solve some decades old problems, to make it affordable for our public.
-for iterative consumer product innovation, it's usually market driven and product category specific. if the companies think there is a demand and profit from it they will do it, otherwise they won't.
-for me it usually means b, a new consumer product category.

 

[Captscooby]

80 crore getting free food
subsidised electricity, fuel
Free healthcare, medicines
Ladli behna lots of them

that’s socialism no country does this on India’s scale.

Modi is the true Samajwadi the biggest socialist leader ever in modern history..

He can change the name from BJP to SJP it will be better suited

I would call is Selective Socialism ..True socialism should cover everyone

The free healthcare part is what burns my ass , why give only to poor bloody what about tax payers why not extend the scheme to every citizen of this country , after paying lakhs in taxes i need to run to private insurance firm to buy a health care and will come with no gurantee of coverage as its purely based on the whims and fancies of the insurance firm to approve it or reject it

They should have launched ayushman bharat for every citizen base vanilla plan . if you want more coverage and better service then you pay extra and upgrade your plan (i think singapore govt has such plan for its citizens)

Loonie toon administration for railway tickets 65 years is senior citizen but for ayushman bharat senior citizen scheme you have to be above 70 years . so peope who are 65-70 should go and jump into bay of bongol what Mudi ji ..

 

[Captscooby]

Electronics is fine, more investment and integration will happen at a later level. We're still in baby steps in that industry. Solar is also doing ok.

Where he failed badly is labour intensive manufacturing. Textiles, furniture, Shoes, apparel, Toys and general white goods stuff. Anything that has the potential to employ the masses just hasn't taken off.

We should have had our own Hyundai , Samsung and Hanhwa by now , i am not able to find the tweet which said how the Korean govt put its entire resources in building these corporations and today they are ruling across continents .

today we are phucked because most heavy engineering equipment has to be imported and its all in the control of big boys one is expensive so we cant afford and another is our arch enemy sitting in northern border who can shut the supply any time ..

Its like we are between a Rock and Hard sea always because we don't want to build our own life rafts

 

[darkflame]

https://www.msn.com/en-in/money/mar...2-experts-revise-fy25-projections/ar-AA1uZTJG
"While we are not revising our full-year growth projection of 7 per cent thus implying a 7.9 per cent growth in H2, we will closely monitor the momentum going forward. We believe that growth in the second half (H2) will be driven by continued strength in agriculture, which is expected to boost rural demand further and increase in capital expenditure (capex) from both central and state governments. Additionally, moderation in the industrial sector's base should support stronger growth, especially with the complete monsoon season," he added.
The IMF and World Bank have pegged India's 2024-25 GDP growth at 7 per cent, while the RBI had earlier forecast a growth of 7.2 per cent.



The RBI remains optimistic about the medium-term outlook, stating that the slowdown observed in the second quarter is behind the economy.


Private consumption, which is expected to drive domestic demand, is showing signs of recovery, bolstered by festive season spending. However, analysts remain cautious, with most projecting that India's growth will be somewhat lower than initially forecast, given the recent data trends.

 

[ezsasa]

I would call is Selective Socialism ..True socialism should cover everyone

The free healthcare part is what burns my ass , why give only to poor bloody what about tax payers why not extend the scheme to every citizen of this country , after paying lakhs in taxes i need to run to private insurance firm to buy a health care and will come with no gurantee of coverage as its purely based on the whims and fancies of the insurance firm to approve it or reject it

during YSR's tenure, folks in andhra who can afford private medical treatment applied this same logic and got them selves state govt funded heath card. while a few benefitted due to connections in some hospitals to get costly procedures like angioplasty in cities, there were also horror stories of doctors/assistants doing surgeries holding tea with one hand in towns, and counters deliberately closed because of the load in some private hospitals. bills not being cleared by state govt for costly procedures etc.

this is from some years ago, but these things did happen. could also be the case that processes are corrected now.

 

[Captscooby]

Hope this doesn't turn into Next Nokia or Vodafone saga..

i know how VW Group works being an insider as former employee but will they be left with just collecting the dues or govt thinking of making extra moolah by charging 2* interest as fine would make or break this company in india .


i have no laaavvvvuuuu for the krauts fuck them for all the moral policing they keep doing us but as industry this will be watched by other foreign brands

Rs 12,000 Crore Bombshell - Skoda Auto Volkswagen India Hit with Massive Tax Evasion Notice

Skoda Auto Volkswagen India Faces Rs 12,000 Crore Tax Evasion Charge; Fines Could Double to Rs 24,000 Crore with Interest

www.rushlane.com

 

[randombully]

Hope this doesn't turn into Next Nokia or Vodafone saga

i know how VW Group works being an insider as former employee but will they be left with just collecting the dues or govt thinking of making extra moolah by charging 2* interest as fine would make or break this company in india .

Rs 12,000 Crore Bombshell - Skoda Auto Volkswagen India Hit with Massive Tax Evasion Notice

Skoda Auto Volkswagen India Faces Rs 12,000 Crore Tax Evasion Charge; Fines Could Double to Rs 24,000 Crore with Interest

www.rushlane.com

VW is kind of fucked though, there biggest market china is rejecting them more and more in favour of domestic cars.

 

[Captscooby]

during YSR's tenure, folks in andhra who can afford private medical treatment applied this same logic and got them selves state govt funded heath card. while a few benefitted due to connections in some hospitals to get costly procedures like angioplasty in cities, there were also horror stories of doctors/assistants doing surgeries holding tea with one hand in towns, and counters deliberately closed because of the load in some private hospitals. bills not being cleared by state govt for costly procedures etc.

this is from some years ago, but these things did happen. could also be the case that processes are corrected now.

It is exactly the same right now also , some people with political connections will hoodwink the system and get these CM insurance cards for their wards , I am more talking about honest salaried class tax payer who is getting milked like a cash cow from every angle

i am talking from personal experience, i am currently dealing with major illness for one of my parent, because we are not in so called govt BPL line we are not eligible for state or neither central govt health insurance schemes , private insurance declined to cover the claim saying its outside minimum waiting period , With lakhs of rupees in hospital bills and uncertain outcome of the treatment the only thing which saved my ass was my employer group health insurance to an extent as it has 5 lakh limit only , Now when i see someone using govt health insurance card availing the same treatment in next bed and i was denied the same benefit for working hard and earning some money and elevating ourselves without sucking the govt for every thing i feel as honest tax payer dejected .

I don't say those people should not get good treatment in apollo they should at every cost but along with them i also should get some benefits for paying lakhs in taxes every year to the exchequer

Not a stupid "We respect honest you tax payer" like you Thank you note in email from ITD ..